Joel Wright
EF5
The latest 12z runs are all consistant on making this another east coast thing. Oh well. Maybe we'll get a few flurries by February..... :x
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Monster Snowstorm? 12/23
- Thread starter Robert Dewey
- Start date
Robert Dewey
EF5
Don't worry, if the models keep this up, I won't be getting anything either. The GFS has also been pushing things slightly east with each run, though not jogging the track as much as the ETA.Jeremy Lemanski
EF3
don't forget the models have had a tough time forecasting the tracks of storms this fall, remember the turky day snowstorm? that was forecasted to move east, and it ended up farther west. So did another system sometime in early dec, not sure which one i know we got light rain out of it and very little snow.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Yeah, we can hope. The latest 18Z ETA is horrible... The low is almost non-existant, and QPF as far east as western OH is less than .10 inches. Also, the latest 12Z UKMET is weaker and further east, though it still paints 0.50 inches of QPF across our region...
The 12Z GFS is very consistant with it's last run, so hopefully it will pan out. I guess we will have to wait and see the 18Z GFS, though this will probably add to the confusion. My guess is, we won't know roughly what the strength/track will be until 24 hours from the event.
EDIT:
This is interesting, from NWS CLE:
Robert Dewey
EF5
Wow, 18Z GFS is nearly identical to it's 12Z run, except a bit slower. GFS has been really consistant for 4 runs in a row now, indicating a more western track and a deeper system, where the ETA has been very inconsistant...
Chris Hayes
EF5
I live in eastern Ohio so who knows whats going to happen here. I wish the ETA would be the model to correctly call this thing cause I would get a good foot of snow, or more. My area never gets the good stuff :cry:
Robert Dewey
EF5
Man, the ETA is really weakening this thing. Just when I didn't think it could get any weaker than the 12Z run, it did. Pretty soon, no one is going to be talking about snow, if the ETA keeps it's trend, and the other models follow right along.
EDIT:
Well, it looks like the ETA is winning... The GFS has trended further east, and weaker with the system. The weaker the wave is, the further east it will track. Hopefully, the models are wrong, since it's still a good 60 hours away, but I doubt things will change significantly... :cry:
Joel Wright
EF5
At least I got to see a few snow flurries tonight, even a few snow grains. It was almost enough to see on the ground, if using a microscope!! :wink:
Chris Hayes
EF5
Well the latest GFS solution is showing the greatest snow accumulations a little more in line with the ETA. I don't really care how much wind we get, though a 60mph plus blizzard would be cool. As long as I get 6-10" or more i'll be happy
Robert Dewey
EF5
Well, as usual, the models can't make up their mind. They are now trending slightly westward with the past two runs (06Z and 12Z), or at least the ETA has. It's also been getting stronger.
NWS DTX noted that the models did pick up well on the 140knt jet in the Pacific, which will be the fuel for this storm. They also said that it's possible this jet (and associated mid level energy) will not weaken/shear out (as advertised by the 00Z models). If that were to hold true, this storm would become rather strong. Low and behold, the 06Z and 12Z ETA offer a less sheared/stronger jet solution.
EDIT:
12Z 15KM GEM really cranking this storm up, and quite a bit further west this run. Widespread QPF in excess of 1.15 inches (25-35mm). All of IN, southeast lower MI, and northwest OH would get slammed according to that run, as well as portions of IL (eastern)...
Joel Wright
EF5
I'm hoping we can at least see the western fringe of the cirrus deck, that will be more than exciting. Enjoy this storm all you easterners...
Robert Dewey
EF5
I'm hoping we can at least see the western fringe of the cirrus deck, that will be more than exciting. Enjoy this storm all you easterners...
ETA is movin' on west, and getting stronger... Since the event is still a solid 24-36 hours away, and if this westward trend continues, maybe you will get snow after all Joel...
Dan Cook
EF5
I'm hoping we can at least see the western fringe of the cirrus deck, that will be more than exciting. Enjoy this storm all you easterners...
ETA is movin' on west, and getting stronger... Since the event is still a solid 24-36 hours away, and if this westward trend continues, maybe you will get snow after all Joel...
I'll hold you to that. 8)
Chris Hayes
EF5
Any chace the ETA's solution will be right? If it is I'll get at least 6-10, maybe 10-15 inches, at least. I live in NE Ohio
Robert Dewey
EF5
Any chace the ETA's solution will be right? If it is I'll get at least 6-10, maybe 10-15 inches, at least. I live in NE Ohio
I think the models are falling into place with a more western/stronger solution. Remember, the stronger the low, the further west it will end up. That's because it will be easier for it to punch into the baroclinic zone. The 21Z RUC 12HR forecast has the 500MB vort and jet even stronger than the ETA and GFS at 0900Z tomorrow, with SFC low further northwest. A look at the FSL RUC 20KM (out to 48 hours), reveals a SFC low in northwestern OH of around 990MB with very intense precip surrounding the northwest side of the low.
If this trend continues and jogs much further west with the 00Z and 06Z runs, I may be talking about rain as well...
BTW... KCLE is calling for 8-16 inch storm total accumulations, and that was with the weaker 12Z ETA... The 18Z is a bit stronger and has more QPF...
In general, I will stick with my first though and say someone will end up with 18-24 inches by the time it's all said and done, as long as the deeper trend continues.Similar threads
