Robert Dewey
EF5
I've been watching the models over the past few days. GFS showed a pretty decent storm, but then started backing off (as did the NAM, to some extent).
However, the latest 06Z and 12Z NAM, GFS, and GGEM show a deeper 500mb trough and earlier / stronger phasing, leading to a further northwest and more organized synoptic system.
I'm a little concerned for SE MI, where 850mb T's are only forecast to be around -3C (although, CAA should keep things in check). BUFKIT out of KPTK shows 0.59 inches of storm-total QPF, yielding 6-8 inches of snow (based on vv's for ratios)... if it's all snow and no sleet or rain mixed in.
The GFS has a more expanded area of 0.75 inch QPF, with a fairly similar temperature profile. The GGEM, which is further west than both NAM and GFS (and much warmer) outputs over an inch (with quite a bit as rain).
Should be interesting to see how this plays out... I'm thinking this could be a decent early-season snowstorm for parts of northern IN and lower MI.
However, the latest 06Z and 12Z NAM, GFS, and GGEM show a deeper 500mb trough and earlier / stronger phasing, leading to a further northwest and more organized synoptic system.
I'm a little concerned for SE MI, where 850mb T's are only forecast to be around -3C (although, CAA should keep things in check). BUFKIT out of KPTK shows 0.59 inches of storm-total QPF, yielding 6-8 inches of snow (based on vv's for ratios)... if it's all snow and no sleet or rain mixed in.
The GFS has a more expanded area of 0.75 inch QPF, with a fairly similar temperature profile. The GGEM, which is further west than both NAM and GFS (and much warmer) outputs over an inch (with quite a bit as rain).
Should be interesting to see how this plays out... I'm thinking this could be a decent early-season snowstorm for parts of northern IN and lower MI.