SNOW 11/30/08-12/1/08: GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST

[Robert Dewey]

NAM continues the wetter trend... GFS coming in now.

Most of the 18Z and what's available of the 00Z show widespread QPF AOA 0.75 inches from northeast IL, extending over much of lower MI.

BUFKIT for DTX shows storm total QPF of 0.95 inches (00Z GFS @ 1.25 near Port Huron). The velocity technique shows snow ratios around 12:1 (trying to eyeball an average)... with a total output of 13 inches at events end by Monday afternoon.

I think this might be overdone... even with a 12:1 ratio, that still amounts to 11.5 inches IF it's all snow. The 0C isotherm doesn't drop below 500FT until 21Z, at which point 0.15 inches of QPF has already been dropped.

With that said, I would say areas around DTX might see 6-10 inches... areas a bit further north and west (LAN, GRR) seeing slightly more as the profile should be colder.

 

[rdale]

I'm comfortable with 6" for Lansing, plumes from the SPC SREF are showing at least 80% chance of 4" and 20% chance of 8% for a mean - and that's pretty stinking high. GFS isn't as extreme as NAM for QPF which makes sense, until the NAM gets fixed next month it remains useless when it comes to precip totals.

 

[Robert Dewey]

GFS isn't as extreme as NAM for QPF which makes sense, until the NAM gets fixed next month it remains useless when it comes to precip totals.

So what about that 1.25 inch value near Port Huron?

(Checking plumes right now)

 

[rdale]

I don't see anything this morning that changes my mind, 4-8" for Lansing and 2-5" for Jackson (still worried how far the mix moves up, Cobb still wants to bring that much more north than I'd expect.)

 

[Joel Wright]

Already a little over an inch down here.

Early 12z runs look about the same so far. Maybe a tad drier. Still looks like a healthy 4-7"+ band will fall from northern IL into western lower MI.

 

[Robert Dewey]

3.7 inches in Huntington, IN... close to 2" in the past hour. That's just around 20 miles west of the 0C 850MB isotherm. Pretty interesting to say the least.

EDIT: Light snow in Hillsdale, MI as of 10AM... right on the 0C 850MB isotherm. Looks like that might be the dividing line between R/S.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Flurries coming down... I guess that answers the p-type question.

But the radar doesn't look all that impressive to me. Hopefully it fills in.

 

[Danny Neal]

Light to moderate snow falling now for the past......45 minutes or so. Winter Storm Warnings surrounding the immediate metro area, but the metro itself is still holding the Winter Weather Advisory.

I guess the first snow had to come some time..... On a related note, in a contest I am in I predicted the first major snowfall to hit Chicago area on November 29th (Predictions were end of October) Damn....one day off!

 

[L.B. LaForce]

just stopped snowing here in Battle Creek, measured 2 inches so far.

 

[rdale]

Interesting race between the dry slot and the pivot point... I'm still comfortable about Lansing, but not sure the eastern half of MI is going to get as much today/tonight.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

MXK is suggesting 8-10" in SE Wisconsin, I can see closer to 8 near the lake, but it should taper of fast inland. Looks like our heaviest amouts will be deformation snow early Monday morning.

 

[Joel Wright]

Had 2" on the ground a few hours ago, but that has since melted back down to around an inch or so. The snow has become so light that it's not accumulating anymore, and with the relatively thin cloud cover and above freezing temps quite a bit has melted. Looks like the warning might not verify on the western fringes at least. There is some heavier snow trying to back in from the east though.

Still not a bad snow for the first official accumulation of the season.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Heavy snow falling in Haslett, East of Lansing...guessing at a rate 1 to 2" per hour although I doubt it will last all that long with a rather aggressive dry slot just to the South.

 

[rdale]

The dry slot is REALLY doing a number on the snowfall... I've reduced additional snow forecast to 1-3" for Lansing, the "official" forecast still calls for 7" for us over the next 24 hours so it'll be interesting to track.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

The dry slot is REALLY doing a number on the snowfall... I've reduced additional snow forecast to 1-3" for Lansing, the "official" forecast still calls for 7" for us over the next 24 hours so it'll be interesting to track.

Some of the activity in Northern Ohio might just clip the East side of the Lansing area with a bit of negative tilt to things..otherwise, that dry slot should eat up everything for next 6 hours at least. There seems to be a model bias for under estimating the strength of the dry slot in these type of storms in this area.