FORECASTS: 2/7/10 to 2/10/10 - Midwest & Great Lakes Winter Storm

Some of the 12z WRF research runs are pretty interesting. Note that they aren't much stronger than the operational model (in some cases, actually weaker)... but they're a bit more rambunctious with QPF. I'm wondering if that has something to do with the finer resolution and convective schemes?

wrf.ptot.0048.gif

wrf.sfcp.0041.gif

As a general rule, higher resolution makes able the simulation of stronger vertical velocities, thus it would be expected that QPFs would be a little more rambunctious with the hi-res models. I see the same thing in my own WRF runs (I run at 3km).
 
I heard there was a 50 car pile up somewhere in northern Pennsylvania. 1 person is dead and 12 more have been injured. Stay safe if you have to travel.
 
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