Monster Snowstorm? 12/23

Just checked the 06Z GFS, LOL. Between the hours of 84 and 108, one heck of a storm blows up in the Ohio Valley and tracks through Ontario Canada. Air just to the northwest of this system will be very cold, on the order of 20F, and GFS paints nearly 1.25 to 1.50 inches of QPF into this cold air. Snow:Liquid ratios at 20F are typically 15:1 or a bit higher... So that would be a TON of snow.

Certainly, I wish it would happen, and being that far out on the GFS, there is obviously PLENTY of room for error. But, it's still interesting!
 
Well, the GFS is really deepending this storm on the 12Z run. It's been trending westward with each run now. I really hope it doesn't track that far west, the last thing I want to see here is +1.25" of rain...
 
Keep coming farther west baby!! Come to daddy!!! :D

This morning's GFS has the storm dumping almost two feet of snow on Chi-town with 40mph+ winds. Of course the track of this baby is probably going to change in time, but it should be a huge storm nevertheless. It will have a very strong baroclinic boundary to draw on.

Man I love tracking these storms! It's fun waiting for each model run to see how they change..
 
Keep coming farther west baby!! Come to daddy!!! :D

This morning's GFS has the storm dumping almost two feet of snow on Chi-town with 40mph+ winds. Of course the track of this baby is probably going to change in time, but it should be a huge storm nevertheless. It will have a very strong baroclinic boundary to draw on.

Man I love tracking these storms! It's fun waiting for each model run to see how they change..

LOL... You WILL get the snow... The weather Gods never let me have my way...

I agree with you on the tight baroclinic zone. It's hard to believe the GFS though, I'm sitting here with the thermometer reading 4F outside right now, and the GFS is having us hit 55F in the next few days.

Perhaps an ice storm is also in the works? I just can't see SFC temps rebounding that nicely with the current temps and boundary position...
 
Well, I've been reading the grid forecasts and HWOs from ILX, LOT and MKX and most of them don't even mention snow for Thursday.
 
Well, I've been reading the grid forecasts and HWOs from ILX, LOT and MKX and most of them don't even mention snow for Thursday.

Alot of WFO won't mention it that far out, and probably since this is an evolving situation (models went from and East Coast Bomb to a Midwestern Blizzard in less than 4 model runs). Things could flip flop a few times, but this afternoons discussion for most of the offices located in the threatened region should at least mention the possibility.
 
Right now most of the energy for this storm are out in the Pacific, where the upper air data is less than pathetic. I expect this storm to change quite a bit over the next few days. Around 60hrs away when all the elements come onshore and are better sampled we'll have a much better idea..

But it's still fun to look at. 8)
 
Not to mention the incredible cold temps. Temps could be below zero most of the day on Christmas Eve. Plus, with snow on the ground, overnite lows will be ridiculous.
 
The 18Z ETA went alot further east this run. GFS also went a tad further east ( :lol: ). Still TONS of QPF shown on both models, so someone is going to get something.

I wouldn't count on track too far west, given the cold air in place (which would keep the track further east). However, I hope it doesn't end up as far east as the ETA. Either way, a good portio of MO/IL/IN/MI would get some good snow amounts with a further east track. NWS IWX stated it looks like it could be 18 inch snowstorm...

WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCHING THIS SITUATION TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW IS
GOING TO FALL...BUT RIGHT NOW GFSLR IS SHOWING UP TO 18 INCHES WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
 
Ya know, I didn't even stop to look at the HPC Winter Weather Outlook... Pretty broad
HIGH risk are for >4 inches, and a pretty broad area of a MDT risk for >8 inches or greater :shock:
 
Reading the various AFD, the GFS seems to be the outlier on this storm,
the CANDIAN, DGEX, ECMWF, ETA,UKMET models have different solutions.

NWS DETROIT:
THE 12Z GFS DEVELOPS AND BRINGS STRONG SURFACE LOW NORTH INTO LOWER MI BY THURSDAY...MUCH FARTHER WEST AND STRONGER THAN CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS. IF THIS WERE TO BEAR OUT...NUMEROUS ADJUSTMENTS FROM CURRENT FORECASTS WOULD BE NECESSARY...INCLUDING TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDTX/0412192318.fxus63.html

NWS GRAND RAPIDS:
AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A MAJOR STORM HEADING TOWARD MICHIGAN. IT'S A SYSTEM THAT COULD SERIOUSLY DISRUPT TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION. AT LEAST THAT'S WHAT THE GFS WANTS US TO BELIEVE.
Source: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGRR/0412192322.fxus63.html

NWS NORTH WEBSTER:
WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCHING THIS SITUATION TO SEE HOW MUCH SNOW IS GOING TO FALL...BUT RIGHT NOW GFSLR IS SHOWING UP TO 18 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.
Source:http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KIWX/0412192342.fxus63.html
Mike
 
The interesting thing about these Gulf of Mexico/southern Plains low pressure systems, is that they don't really need to be that deep to produce some hefty snowfall accumulations. However, I am always for a really deep land hurricane! :lol:
 
I looked at the ETA earlier. I would love for it to verify. It's showing a 6-10 or 10-15 inch swath in my area. I hope its right :shock:
 
I looked at the ETA earlier. I would love for it to verify. It's showing a 6-10 or 10-15 inch swath in my area. I hope its right :shock:

You and I are the only ones praying for this further east track, LOL... A storm track that dumps a foot on you, would likely dump a foot on me as well.
 
I was planning on making the drive up to Chicago on Wednesday, but now it looks like I may have to move those plans up a day. So much for an event free trip. :)
 
GFS is back to a Robert and Chris solution, :eek: :eek:

Hopefully things don't fizzle out all together, and no one gets anything... Still TONS of QPF being thrown into 20F air, which would be a 15:1 snow ratio, or even higher...
 
GFS is back to a Robert and Chris solution, :eek: :eek:

Hopefully things don't fizzle out all together, and no one gets anything... Still TONS of QPF being thrown into 20F air, which would be a 15:1 snow ratio, or even higher...


what does QPF mean? Is that Snow to water or Rain to snow?
 
I just looked at the 90 hour GFS. Thats no good for my area of Ohio. I live in NE Ohio, not NW :cry: Move to the east PLEEEAAASSSEEE
 
Some definitons of QPF
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF)
A spatial and temporal precipitation forecast that will predict the potential amount of future precipitation for a specified region, or area.

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is the total amount of expected liquid precipitation (in hundredths of inches). A QPF will be specified when a meaurable (0.01") precipitation type is forecast for any hour during a QPF valid period.

QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) represents the total amount of liquid precipitation (in hundreths of inches) at a gridpoint and SNOW AMT represents the total snowfall accumulation (in whole inches) at a gridpoint.

Source: NWS

quantitative precipitation forecast—(Abbreviated QPF.) A prediction of the amount of precipitation that will fall at a given location in a given time interval.

Source: AMS
Mike
 
I just looked at the 90 hour GFS. Thats no good for my area of Ohio. I live in NE Ohio, not NW :cry: Move to the east PLEEEAAASSSEEE

LOL, I guess I'm stuck in the middle...

QPF is Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (roughly how much liquid should fall, given the dynamics/etc.). You take the snow/liquid ratio, and apply it to the QPF. For instance, doing this for Detroit, MI yields roughtly 23 inches over a 36 hour period (at a 15:1 ratio)... Obviously things aren't really that simple, but that's just wishcasting...
 
After fully reviewing the ETA/GFS/GEM models, I would have to say that I would side more with a GEM/GFS solution (but hey, I could be biased, LOL). The GFS seems to be consistant with strength, while the GEM seems to be consistant with the track... I don't think the current GFS is too far off (at least for now anyway), and the GEM goes from 1003MB to 990MB in 24 hours, and then to 977MB in another 24 hour step. With the amount of cold air, very tight baroclinicity, rapidly strengthening jet stream (as seen on all models), a stronger solution would seem more than likely.

I would be willing to bet that someone, somewhere, will see two feet by the time everything is said and done, whether it's the midwest, or the east coast, LOL, there is alot of potential here...
 
Well, heck I'm actually hoping something like this will happen. I can't stand cold temperatures, especially today's 5 degree high for southern Macomb County. :?

I also developed a sore throad today; thank God no fever. Probably sinus; or the result of me going into the cold for the past weeks without a coat on (...whoops!).

Let's hope for a nice 2 feet of snow with blizzard conditions for Detroit. I'm talking 60-70 mph winds and extremely heavy snow! Sweet. :D

I always hope for the day when we will get a SVR issued for a snowstorm with 60 mph winds. :) BTW, anybody from Michigan see the lightning-filled snowstorm and 40-45 mph winds in Oakland county on Thursday? It was pretty cool.

I hope this will end up hitting Detroit!!
 
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