Feb 25th - Mar 1st : Southern States snowstorm

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Analysis of the 12Z runs shows the GFS to be much faster with this system then the NAM (by about 220 miles further east). The NAM breaks out widespread precip all across OK by 12Z Friday morning while the GFS only starts to break out precip across NERN OK at 06Z Fri and shifting it southeast into west-central Ark throughout the day on Friday. With surface temps being what they are in the GFS, all precip would fall as snow, whereas with the NAM, areas north of a line from LAW-OKC-FSM would see snow with the rest seeing rain.

I have only begun looking at this system so Ive not been able to look at previous runs for consistency but will def keep a close on on this system as it promises to be a sig event depending on the exact track and timing of the low.

 

[Darren Wilson]

Latest NAM run has come into better agreement with the 12Z GFS with regards to precipitation beginning in NE OK and moving SE.

 

[Chris Carter]

It seems to me that the GFS is too warm on the next several low systems coming into the Southern Plains for the next week or two. Heck it looks like the 18Z GFS is trying to pushing out our first severe weather outbreak across the Plains by March 9-10th.

 

[Darren Wilson]

It appears OUN is siding with the warmer NAM and keeping most of the snow up north. For some reason I have a hard time believing it will be that warm...

 

[Chris Sokol]

Heck it looks like the 18Z GFS is trying to pushing out our first severe weather outbreak across the Plains by March 9-10th.

And the problem with that is...

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Expect winter weather products to be issued with overnight package by DDC/ICT/OUN/TSA offices.

Models in agreement in placing a sfc low over SWRN OK by 00Z Friday with NERLY sfc flow to its NW. 32 line should lie from KPVW-KWWR-KICT at that time. Snow will begin over SWRN KS into the OK panhandle late tomorrow afternoon into the evening. SREF members DO NOT forecast high snowfall rates attm, thus, would only expect only a winter weather advisory product for the area.
By hours 36 (12Z Fri) the GFS has the sfc low over SERN OK while the NAM isnt as fast, with the sfc low over south-central OK. Nick Hampshire pointed out in the FWD AFD this afternoon that the GFS is quickly becoming an outlier with this system so going to give him the benefit of the doubt and be suspicious of the picture the GFS wants to paint. Either way, this system will be moving along at a steady clip and the 700mb front will be quick to shut off precip for areas that see snow overnight Thursday with the sfc low backing to the north and northwest shuting off moisture flow.
Snow line after 12Z looks to be along US160 in KS with areas south seeing snow throughout the morning hours on Friday tranisitioning to US412 east Friday afternoon. OKC metro should start to see very cold rain beginning after midnight Friday morning with transition to snow by 6-7am Friday.
Friday afternoon most of the sig precip should be transitioning into eastern parts of Oklahoma with most areas north of I-40 seeing snow and a rain/snow mix south.

Overall this system doesnt look to be a sig snowfall producer. The dendritic growth zone isnt progged to be all that deep and the amount of cold air and mositure available with this system is a bit lacking. Notice tonight that dewpoints over NERN OK into MO are in the single digits. Moisture will try to recover overnight and during the day tomorrow with SERLY flow at the sfc but not sure it will be enough. I wonder if this system were to come thru a few weeks earlier or further back in time, it might be a bigger deal then it is forecasted to be. Either way, this will be a snowfall producer and I recommend everyone go out and take pics b/c Spring is on the way (crossing fingers)

 

[Andrew Francis]

Winter weather advisory posted for midnight tonight till noon tomorow over central ok.

Notes say up to four inches of accumulations.

It is awfully warm out today. Hard to believe temps are gunna fall enough in time. Gunna be interesting to see how it shapes up tonight as the low moves east.

 

[Robert Hettchen]

already had some light snow/sleet pellets fall here in Coldwater, ks with temperatures right at 32 just 70 miles north of Woodward, ok. Radar is pretty impressive west of here in Clark and Mead counties. curious to know what is exectly falling over that way. I would guess sleet by the look of radar. DDC still calling for up to 4" here tonight as well, and with very light winds am looking forward to a beautifully calm period of mod. to hvy. snow within the next 12 hours!

 

[Darren Wilson]

It appears as though both the NAM and GFS have a pretty good handle on the temperatures, but the GFS overestimated the moisture return. This may delay the start of precipitation but wet bulb the temperature down closer to freezing.

 

[Chris Heater]

I'm glad I'm missing out on this winter storm. I don't know about anyone else...but i'm sick of winter! You guys can enjoy your new snowcover south of me!

 

[Robert Hettchen]

well at the start of the day the forecast was up to 5". looks like the snow is over and we recieved 0.00". another busted forecast for the ddc nws. that makes 5 storms this year that we were forecasted 4"+ that we recieved nothing at all!!

 

[Andrew Francis]

Yea this whole storm is a bust. Hardly any precip. is actually making it to the ground in most of OK, though it does look to be picking up as it is moving into C OK. Temps are still around 40 though, so snow is pretty much not going to happen except maybe some flakes to see in the morning, nothing more than that really expected anymore @ this point.

Can't really be bummed as this winter has been something rare for most of OK, 5" off our season record, just wish we could break it as it seems we should have.. lol Maybe Monday ;]

 

[Darren Wilson]

Here in Norman, were starting to cool off now that light rain is starting to reach the ground. Now to wait 'till the changeover to snow happens...