6/5/08 FCST: TX/OK/KS/NE/MN/IA/MO

[Mike Hollingshead]

Boy, what a tough decision today. 12z NAM makes central NE look really good early, like through 1pm ish. But then by 21-0z on it makes central KS south look nuts with ne storm motion into a southerly low level jet of 50 knots. I think Salina south looks best, provided things don't line out too quickly. No clue still on a target, all I know is it will most likely end up the wrong one. Would be nice to get that dl to really bulge somewhere and be nw-se early, then I could see several good supercells for a good while. That could very well happen from McCook se to Pratt.

 

[Jonathan Williams]

My chase target will be around Salina as well. It is a very complex and hard decision to make, but hopefully it will pay off. I don't think anyone has a great grasp on this system and probably will not until its over. This system is very tough for any forecaster including the SPC. Everyone be safe out there!

 

[Joe Acord]

Good Morning, and Good Night

Well again I must be on a good streak or something. Last night SPC downgraded the region, then today they decided to paint the central plains with the "purple" area.

According to the 12Z soundings, the cap is in place from OKC-OMA, but nothing to drastic to overcome. 3500-4000 Cape values throughout C.OK by 21Z.

Again, I am the minority in this high risk event and going for the renegade tornado storm coming off the dryline by 5pm.

Good luck to all, God bless all the chasers.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Remarkable setup today. With such strong forcing I'd play the southern targets along the dryline from extreme northern OK into south central to central kansas. From the looks of the RUC there should be plenty of tornadic supercells in that region. Storms will be moving 50+mph, so good luck to all out there chasing.

 

[Mark Blue]

Tough decisions indeed. We set up like several chasers yesterday around Hays, KS and ended up having to blast north to chase south central NE late in the afternoon. We stayed overnight in Kearney and were pounded by a midnight hail storm that gave us a newly earned badge of honor on my wife's VW GTI (hail dent city). We are planning the south central NE play this morning and will most likely drift east to Hastings or perhaps as far east as York where we can then move south if necessary to north central KS if time and storms warrant a move. Like others we will try and watch them move by finding major north-south highways with good east-west options.

I'm actually thinking Red Cloud as an initial target. See my post yesterday in the Weather and Chasing section regarding the detour on Highway 77 south out of Beatrice to Manhattan as you won't want to get caught by surprise on that deal today. Good luck to all and be safe.

Mark & Jane

 

[afischer]

The NAM-WRF hodographs don't seem to look quite as impressive on the new run with a slightly weaker LLJ. The NAM looks to be underdoing the LLJ a bit currently though in northern OK and southern KS based on profilers/vad winds. The RUC has significantly stronger 850mb flow ahead of the dryline... cranking it up to 60-70kts by 00Z. Who knows if that will pan out. I'd definitely prefer healthier low-level shear today given the relatively intense deep layer shear, assuming it would help with sustained low-level mesos and tornadoes. If it's any consolation, Bunkers is only showing 45-50kts on the new NAM-WRF. I hope things stay west of the Flint Hills as long as possible.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Southern targets along dryline look amazing with the latest runs. That would be my first choice, but given we're "north-siders" we're WF playerz. Target still hasn't changed from last night... head towards the NE/IA/MN/SD border. W IA is still clear which is good. We'll see where we can get the most destablization along the WF.

 

[Geoff Manikin]

12z operational NAM now strongly breaks out convective precip across much of western OK before 00z. The NAM convective scheme usually don't trigger easily or generate much precip in a dryline environment with a healthy initial cap and a lot of mid-level dry air in the sounding, so it's usually on to something if it can trigger strongly in such a situation.

The 500 mb flow in that region is more southwesterly than it is for the targets further north, and you might get some assistance from right rear quad upper jet dynamics in the early evening.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I agree with Jim and Aaron. I favor the southern area for more discrete storms and this area from southern to central Kansas will become extremely favorable for tornadic supercells this afternoon. Strong tornadoes are looking like a pretty good bet across parts of Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklhahoma. Right now my plan is to head out to Pratt to forecast and then I may drop south from there to the Oklahoma border area. I'm not sure on that yet though. I will make that call when I get to Pratt. I do know that I want to stay well downstream of whatever storm I plan on getting on. I'd like to get on a storm that fires just south of the border into Oklahoma, so I will more than likely be staying at least 50 miles north of there. I also want to make sure I am downstream far enough to adjust to whatever storm is discrete, just in case you get a couple storms coming off the dryline in close proximity. Good luck to everybody today. You are going to need it with these storm motions.

 

[Jesse Risley]

About 1 hour out from KTOP. Which is just a stopping point for fuel and food..

I may end up heading slightly further west.. I want to be close to the DL to get the discrete stuff.. As someone else mentioned morning soundings and model analysis looks to have slowed the SRM's slightly.. But every little bit helps!!

Peeking at the 15z MSAS showed nearly 3000 CAPE engulfing the area. Also showed less CINH than I was anticipating however. A nice 989 low moving across NW KS. Also of note, the 15z MSAS showed LCL's down around 500 m. we (Brandon Sullivan and I) will likely be heading toward Salina.. Then we have a ok road network to move when things start screaming... Good luck all.

-Brandon And Jesse

 

[Sam Barricklow]

Historic Event Today?

The RUC forecast winds aloft are insane!

I was considering not chasing today, but after reviewing the forecast, I plan to depart at noon and head north up I-35 toward OKC. Not sure whether I will go west at that point or continue north.

If I could teleport, I'd head to north central Nebraska or south central to southeastern South Dakota. Upper winds are a bit less, but instability will be high, along with a better hodograph than farther south.

This will be a tough system to chase due to the expected speed of storms. It could be unusually dangerous as well. Good luck to all who chase today.

 

[Ben Prusia]

Wow, oh wow what a tough call to make for today, as another Thursday rolled in with yet another high risk (three Thursdays in a row).

I am not too confident in today being a tornado producing day as my main concern shown on the models is the almost lack of turning of the winds from the 850mb level to the 500mb level. The 15Z runs of the RUC model show just about a unidirectional wind profile which screams squall line, and is also verified on the SPC mesoanalysis: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s7/xover.gif . If you were to believe the 12Z NAM runs, the 850mb winds back more to the south at 0Z with a more generous veer at the 500mb level which would lead to a better chance of tornadic storms. As of 11:30AM CDT, the dryline is already firing a line of storms between DDC and ICT. Overall, I am expecting a high wind event at least across Kansas. Farther south into central Oklahoma where the RUC is forecasting a little more veer in the wind profile, I would assume a higher chance of something producing a tornado.

 

[Josh Murfield]

PDS tornado watch issued for most of eastern Nebraska- that and OMA's latest hazardous weather outlook are really concerned about strong long-track tornadoes. So, it seems I'll have no reason to venture further south, even though storms may be a bit more discreet down there- I guess i'll just sit tight here in LNK and see where things start to pop and try to grab the first one that looks promising.

 

[Joe Acord]

new outlook is out and SPC is again scrambling to figure this system out.

I am sorry, but again the OKC bias is on as now we are out of the moderate risk.

It looks pretty obvious that the se-ly sfc wind of 30+ knots, the 68-70 DP temps is going to fuel some crazy storms down here. I understand that storms are going to be isolated, but there is no reason to not expect a pretty high percentage of tornadoes with these storms.

We will see, but I congratulate all those chasers taking the OK targets today. There is going to be tornadoes from MN to TX, so good luck.

 

[Jake Wallentine]

Kevin Rider and I will be heading out shortly here. Probably will either stay here in Wichita or head towards the Hutchinson area. Mesoanalysis shows the cap rapidly eroding in central KS with areas of 3500 - 4500 J/kg SBCAPE. I don't see how storms can line out so quick if your shear is going to be as insane as it is going to be this afternoon tonight. We may look for something to go just out ahead of the dryline in case everything behind it is going to be more linear. With storm speeds to be as bad as they are we'll prolly just line ourselves up to intercept a cell, then let it pass, then skip south to the next one. Good luck to everyone out today and be safe.