6/5/08 FCST: TX/OK/KS/NE/MN/IA/MO

[Chris Lott]

Latest vis sat and surface data shows a sharp dryline in the TX panhandle, with a nice cu field forming. I say give it an hour or two, something should pop and enter the west side of OK, looking at around the Woodward area. Plenty of moisture to work with, and helicity values still look good over Ok. I agree with most, the skew-t for OKC looks nice, and has since last night. I still would pick the southern target for more discrete cells initially, forming into an mcs later this evening.

 

[Darren Addy]

The 992 surface low is currently centered at about Arapahoe, NE and lifting gradually n/nnw. Satellite water vapor imagery shows a strong impulse coming and should be about GLD now. There is also an outflow boundary from the MCS in north central Nebraska making its way SSE through Custer Country.

Should get rather interesting here in Kearney within the next 1-2 hrs.

 

[Chris Lott]

Today is a real hard one to forecast. Lots of parameters coming together, it's just hard to pick where the best will be. I still say Oklahoma. I won't be out today due to previous engagements, but if so, I would target Ponca City, where the 0z timeframe looks to be pretty good. I actually think it starts a little sooner than that.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=RUC&STATIONID=_KPNC

 

[Eddie Natenberg]

Looking to go out a for a few hours, looks like I'm going to head up a little north of OKC, If anyone wants to go and split the gas PM me.

Oh yea I should probably mention something related to weather: the sw that is rotating around the base of the trough and is causing linear development in KS should move into NC OK by 3 pm should and help support more isolated updrafts as it ejects. Might be an early show ending before 9pm. Trough axis is deepening -1.1 mb/3hour via mesonet.

Eddie

 

[Mark Blue]

TIV sighting in York NE as of the time of this post, which makes me feel better about where we targeted today. The confidence looks pretty high for south central and southeast Nebraska today based on SPC narrative and 30% confidence for highest risk. Highway 81 has good options going north and south and is right up my alley since I was born in central NE and grew up here. I sure hope today pays off as the mileage is racking up quickly this week.