6/5/08 FCST: TX/OK/KS/NE/MN/IA/MO

[Mike Peregrine]

lol Andy - - I had JUST gotten done looking at the motion chart when you posted this. At least it's uniform across the board tomorrow. Everyone in the plains will be in the same boat. Welcome back to March 1st.

Here I was thinking ... hmm, maybe if I target the southern dryline it won't be so bad. Wrong.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Another thing to consider for the northern target... look at the Nebraska radar. Those roads are going to be absolute sloshy mud tomorrow, so if you think you're going to do anything remotely close to those storm speeds on those roads tomorrow you can think again. Quick intercept will be all you can do in Nebraska tomorrow.

That makes the dryline a little more enticing tomorrow, maybe around Salina?

Probably another day of intercept, drop south, intercept, drop south.

Nice dryline bulge on the gfs punching into that area by early afternoon.

EDIT: Interesting we're all worried about to little capping and widespread storms, while the SPC just mentioned they did not go with a high risk because of worries of a strong cap.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I'm actually considering Salina to Pratt right now for starters. Wherever I set up, I think I'm just going to stay put and let the storms blow by. There will not be a lot of actual chasing, but rather repositioning for the next one bringing up the rear. Wherever it is, I also want good data available. Another good thing about spreading us all out across three states ... hopefully Sprint won't be knocking us out of service quite so frequently.

PS - just looking at forecast helicities and SWEAT, which are off the hook in NE Kansas, NW Missouri and SW Iowa. I am still trending more toward getting myself anywhere with a greater chance of a classic this time, though - and I'm hoping for that further south. So, so tired of HP monsters. All along the dryline is looking primed with big TDs and extreme instability.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

I'm counting on the DL to suck all of ya to it as a magnet. My only play from ND is the WF so myself and a group of gradstudents will be departing Grand Forks, ND tomorrow morning. Initial "target" will be Sioux Falls, SD in the form of lunch. From there we'll refine our target based off radar and satellite trends. Main concern is convective mode and storm speed, but I'll make do with what mother nature hands us.

 

[mark plate]

I am stunned that the new SPC Day 1 outlook has lifted the moderate risk well north of Oklahoma. Now is not the time to downplay the potential in this state, in my opinion. I will not be shocked if we see a "high" risk even well down into Oklahoma by the 20Z outlook.

 

[Brandon Goforth]

Tomorrow is looking great, but I am more than a little concerned about storm motions. In fact, I'm quite discouraged by them. GFS and NAM have storms coming off the dryline in OK to the northeast at 50-55 kts (55-65 mph!) on average is going to be near impossible to chase, especially when storms begin approaching central OK. I'm sorry, but you're not keeping up with those speeds if this verifies. Speed and directional shear look great. Tds are sufficient enough, but I'd like to see them a little higher...mid-70s would be amazing. I'm just hoping right now that storm speeds will be slower than currently forecasted...no more than 40-45 mph would be a gift right now, and those speeds are hard enough to chase. Northeast at 50-55 kts doesn't give you much of a chance.

 

[Joe Acord]

I am stunned that the new SPC Day 1 outlook has lifted the moderate risk well north of Oklahoma. Now is not the time to downplay the potential in this state, in my opinion. I will not be shocked if we see a "high" risk even well down into Oklahoma by the 20Z outlook.

I agree a little about what you are saying, but I think the next set of forecasters in the morning will look at the 12z sounding and see the potential for an increased chance of storms is very possible in OK. All of the latest 00Z data I have seen has not changed from previous runs, so I too do not see the reason as to why OK is not in the moderate risk at least. Why I do agree that there will be high risk tomorrow in NE, I really think that the outlook will change.

I fully respect SPC for the job they do, but drastic changes like this with no real change to the models seems to come down to forecaster preference. I understand if the moderators for this site see this as a blow below the belt to SPC, but it really is not. I think every weather forecaster sees things differently, and maybe the oncoming forecaster will see more with the 12Z data to increase the percentages here in the Sooner State.

I am still going with the Lawton to Alva line for dryline-type activity with isolated supercells between 22-01z.

 

[Kenny Drake]

Well after seeing the 00Z runs almost nothing has changed now over the last day or so (last 2-3 model runs). Convection will be ongoing during the morning and afternoon hours in the region of isentropic lift ahead of the surging warm front. As this front surges north through the afternoon carrying the elevated convection with it there should be a window of opportunity for daytime heating south of OFBs which will likely exist across parts of NE and IA. Large-scale forcing will increase rapidly during the 4-6pm timeframe across most of the warm sector from IA to OK. Initiation will occur across C or SC NE and will quickly spread southward as the significant shortwave ejects. I understand SPC's concerns with the CAP, however I think dynamic forcing will be so strong I am worried more about storm mode than coverage. Storm mode along the northern play seems to be the most questionable especially towards 7pm as large PVA spreads over the area. A "super" MCS seems likely by mid evening across MN stretching into IA with LEWPs and in the end an intense derecho. Wind fields will be more than adequate for intense supercells should discrete mode verify with 850mb winds cranking especially across E. KS where NAM progs 50kts+. Farther south, the stronger cap may allow a discrete mode perhaps throughout most of the event. 0-1km SRH should be excellent from the warm front south into OK. NAM 00Z Forecast soundings valid 00Z Fri show great hody's for supercellular mode. This coupled with CAPE in excess of 3000 J/Kg pretty much everywhere in the warm sector should yield EHI > 5 with enhanced areas greater than 8. Tack on LCLs < 1000m and if discreteness persists a tornado outbreak seems likely. If I could go anywhere tomorrow I would be in KS from Wichita to Emporia where storm mode will likely remain discrete longer than the northern play. Regardless of storm-mode, I think a high risk is warranted. If storm mode goes linear quickly than watch out for one mother of an MCS especially across IA into MN and later WI. Personally, I will wait until late tomorrow morning to make a chase decision after I see what overnight convection has done. On a final note, I'm not looking forward to storm motion as they will be chugging along >45mph almost everywhere in the warm sector.

As for the SPCs current outlook: If they think the cap will be stout than nothing more than a moderate risk is right on the money. If the cap holds then the coverage of severe weather will not be there. SPC outlooks are based primarily on the coverage of severe weather, not how severe the severe weather will be (however it does play a factor.)

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Just waking up and looking at data.. I am going to stick with my target.. I like northeast KS, the 850 jet is screaming right over top. Plenty of CAPE, favorable hodographs...

I agree with SPC, but I believe by 13z or at least 1630 that it will go high risk, once capping issues are worked out.

I guess weather will happen even if they don't go high risk, just makes me more sure where to chase!:cool

Good Luck To Everyone, hope you brought jet fuel..

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well - it's going to be a long day. There are already SVR watches in eastern Colorado with several supercells getting ready to fly into western Kansas and Nebraska. I'm really wondering how this day is going to turn out for a lot of small towns and possibly some of the larger cities in the plains. Could end up being a pretty sad result. And I don't think there's going to be much we can do in the way of help on a day like this. It can't turn out good. Be safe and report stuff today. Every report will probably count.

I agree that NE Kansas is looking really primed for something nuts. All of the parameters are maxed out up here. Topeka, Hiawatha, Emporia, Falls City, Lincoln look out today (among many others). By the way ... it's looking like moisture really piling up along the dryline at 21z, and the DL is pretty far out there. At least Salina to Hays at that point. We'll have to keep an eye on that progression, but I'm thinking of heading further west now.

Edit - also looking a lot like supercells around Pratt on 21z RUC. I'm still liking that area down there this afternoon -

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I think today looks insane! This mornings RUC runs and the NAM have pulled things a slight bit west and south, with the RUC keeping the surface low more towards extreme southwest NE. CINH and 700 mb temps indicate strong capping through early afternoon upon which substantial cooling spreads in as the heart of the upper trough swings in, with 8 to 10 degree 700 mb temps by 00z across the I-35 corridor.

Each model run has me more excited, and equally concerned about the well being of folks across KS.

As of now, We plan to target Wichita to Great Bend for initiation and try and stay more southerly - better discrete chances.

Eastern KS looks pretty socked in, so staying a bit further west IMO makes sense to stay right on the dryline where the most daytime heating occurs.

 

[Warren Faidley]

You gotta feel for those at the SPC today. What a complex mess with serious potential. Surface winds in the TX panhandle are still south w/DP in the 50-60's. SW push has got to set up soon or the DL will be pretty far back to the west/sw. Here in Goodland, just had SVR storm to the NE, TVS on a second storm to the north. Nuts. Storm speed, mush roads, quick turnover, HP's, dryline gamble and host of issues will make this a day to remember - no doubt. May just set-up on I-70 in N/Central KS and just let them pass by in duck hunting mode. Good luck to all, stay safe.

W.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I will leaving from Vinita, OK within the next 30 min. or so. Will initially head west to I35 and then decide whether to stay put or go north or south. I agree with Mike above that things could get pretty bad for some cities and that reporting is esp. critical today for chasers. I too just glanced at the 12hr RUC that goes out to 21z and things look really nice in the Hutchinson, KS area. EHI, 0-1 and 0-3 SRH are maximized in this area along with very high STP parameters. With the insane amount of instability, moisture and shear I don't really see the CAP being too much of a problem the further north you go. I also think down the dryline into SW OK will develop discrete cells as well by at least 23z. Current dewpoint in Pratt is 68 with a dewpoint of 66 in Hutchinson. LCL heights will be lower in central KS as opposed to the OK target as well, which will help tornado potential. It will be a good idea to stay further off the dryline than usual due to fast storm speeds. Maybe we will luck out and get 40-45kt speeds instead of 50-60kts. The only thing we may be able to do is find a good spot and intercept storms from the SW as they move NE. Heading towards I35 just west of Stillwater and will decide from there. I haven't looked at NE and IA since it isn't an option time wise for me, but I would be careful due to the heavy rains last night that will make the dirt roads soupy. Anyway just my two cents. Huge warm sector should make things interesting. Good luck to all that head out!

 

[Brian McKibben]

Forecasted 00Z soundings from OMA to OKC look insane. At least 2300 CAPE, less than 25 cinh, and Helicity values all above 500. I would target N. Central Oklahoma today.

 

[Tim Marshall]

Target: SALINA, KS Time of Departure from Salina, KS: No need. I will let the storms come to me. A violent day is shaping up for the central plains. Unusually strong upper trough will bring in cold air aloft to finally ignite supercells along the dryline. PROS- Surface dryline will mix eastward into central KS with the nose being near the KS/NE border around Concordia to York by 00z. I like the backed surface winds that will be in NE and that is definitely a target. However, I fear a massive eruption of storms today and would want to play the more discrete storms farther south. So here I stay. CONS - Strong winds (70kt at 500 mb) will transport storms two counties per hour. Even race chasing is out of the question, so I will simply take a defensive position and let the storms come to me. We will return to Dallas tomorrow. TM