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Monster Snowstorm? 12/23

BTW, anybody from Michigan see the lightning-filled snowstorm and 40-45 mph winds in Oakland county on Thursday? It was pretty cool.

Well, since I am the only person on this board from Oakland County, I guess I am obligated to respond, LOL... Yes, I seen that... Thought it was my imagination at first. Those flakes were HUGE, I'm talking half dollar sized. Too bad it only last for 15 minutes. Hopefully this Thursday will prove similar, but for a much longer duration...
 
Now the 0Z GFS has us getting nothing. Ah you gotta love the flip flopping runs. It's all up in the air until we near 60hrs.......
 
Wow, the 00Z UKMET is really bombing this thing out at 987MB over southern Ontario...

I somewhat agree with Joel, but I would take that 60 hours down to about 36 hours. I am thinking this storm will be on the stronger side, between the UKMET and GFS. Lows originating in the southern Plains have been forecasted too weak by models in general these past couple months (in accordance with NWS discussions).

GRR mentions "near blizzard conditions", and DTX says "snowfall over 6 inches is possible"...
 
Latest 12Z ETA is coming in and is now out to 60 hours as of this post. It's quite a bit stronger with the upper level jet, and more agressive with the phasing. But, the low level circulation is much weaker, and thus further east. This doesn't seem to make sense, as a stronger jet stream and more phasing would tend to create a stronger storm... I'm not feeling the ETA too much, and it hasn't really been as consistant with it's strength as the GFS has, so we will have to wait and see what that says...

But then again, the ETA could have the right idea, as the cold air in the northern Plains/Midwest would tend to keep the storm from making too much westward progress, and the dry air would prevent significant QPF...

Interestingly, the NGM is more on the side of the GFS (at least the old runs of the GFS, the 12Z isn't out yet). It is stronger at upper levels, and it reflects this well in the low levels with a deeper circulation at 48 hours. If this GFS is consistant with it's last run, then I would say that the GFS would be the model of choice for this event, but if it sides towards the ETA, then obviously the ETA would be the model of choice...
 
The latest 12z runs are all consistant on making this another east coast thing. Oh well. Maybe we'll get a few flurries by February..... :x
 
Don't worry, if the models keep this up, I won't be getting anything either. The GFS has also been pushing things slightly east with each run, though not jogging the track as much as the ETA.
 
don't forget the models have had a tough time forecasting the tracks of storms this fall, remember the turky day snowstorm? that was forecasted to move east, and it ended up farther west. So did another system sometime in early dec, not sure which one i know we got light rain out of it and very little snow.
 
don't forget the models have had a tough time forecasting the tracks of storms this fall, remember the turky day snowstorm? that was forecasted to move east, and it ended up farther west. So did another system sometime in early dec, not sure which one i know we got light rain out of it and very little snow.

Yeah, we can hope. The latest 18Z ETA is horrible... The low is almost non-existant, and QPF as far east as western OH is less than .10 inches. Also, the latest 12Z UKMET is weaker and further east, though it still paints 0.50 inches of QPF across our region...

The 12Z GFS is very consistant with it's last run, so hopefully it will pan out. I guess we will have to wait and see the 18Z GFS, though this will probably add to the confusion. My guess is, we won't know roughly what the strength/track will be until 24 hours from the event.

EDIT:
This is interesting, from NWS CLE:

CONTEMPLATED A WATCH BUT ATTM WILL
HOLD OFF TO BE ABLE TO PINPOINT WHO NEEDS THE WATCH. ETA SAYS NO FOR
TOL WHILE GFS SAYS YES. NCEP GUID HAS ALMOST 2 FEET OF SNOW WEST OF
CLE...
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. MID SHIFT WILL MOST LIKELY
ISSUE A WATCH.
 
Wow, 18Z GFS is nearly identical to it's 12Z run, except a bit slower. GFS has been really consistant for 4 runs in a row now, indicating a more western track and a deeper system, where the ETA has been very inconsistant...
 
I live in eastern Ohio so who knows whats going to happen here. I wish the ETA would be the model to correctly call this thing cause I would get a good foot of snow, or more. My area never gets the good stuff :cry:
 
Man, the ETA is really weakening this thing. Just when I didn't think it could get any weaker than the 12Z run, it did. Pretty soon, no one is going to be talking about snow, if the ETA keeps it's trend, and the other models follow right along.

EDIT:

Well, it looks like the ETA is winning... The GFS has trended further east, and weaker with the system. The weaker the wave is, the further east it will track. Hopefully, the models are wrong, since it's still a good 60 hours away, but I doubt things will change significantly... :cry:
 
At least I got to see a few snow flurries tonight, even a few snow grains. It was almost enough to see on the ground, if using a microscope!! :wink:
 
Well the latest GFS solution is showing the greatest snow accumulations a little more in line with the ETA. I don't really care how much wind we get, though a 60mph plus blizzard would be cool. As long as I get 6-10" or more i'll be happy :D
 
Well, as usual, the models can't make up their mind. They are now trending slightly westward with the past two runs (06Z and 12Z), or at least the ETA has. It's also been getting stronger.

NWS DTX noted that the models did pick up well on the 140knt jet in the Pacific, which will be the fuel for this storm. They also said that it's possible this jet (and associated mid level energy) will not weaken/shear out (as advertised by the 00Z models). If that were to hold true, this storm would become rather strong. Low and behold, the 06Z and 12Z ETA offer a less sheared/stronger jet solution.

EDIT:

12Z 15KM GEM really cranking this storm up, and quite a bit further west this run. Widespread QPF in excess of 1.15 inches (25-35mm). All of IN, southeast lower MI, and northwest OH would get slammed according to that run, as well as portions of IL (eastern)...
 
I'm hoping we can at least see the western fringe of the cirrus deck, that will be more than exciting :p. Enjoy this storm all you easterners...
 
I'm hoping we can at least see the western fringe of the cirrus deck, that will be more than exciting :p. Enjoy this storm all you easterners...

ETA is movin' on west, and getting stronger... Since the event is still a solid 24-36 hours away, and if this westward trend continues, maybe you will get snow after all Joel...
 
I'm hoping we can at least see the western fringe of the cirrus deck, that will be more than exciting :p. Enjoy this storm all you easterners...

ETA is movin' on west, and getting stronger... Since the event is still a solid 24-36 hours away, and if this westward trend continues, maybe you will get snow after all Joel...

I'll hold you to that. 8)
 
Any chace the ETA's solution will be right? If it is I'll get at least 6-10, maybe 10-15 inches, at least. I live in NE Ohio :(
 
Any chace the ETA's solution will be right? If it is I'll get at least 6-10, maybe 10-15 inches, at least. I live in NE Ohio :(

I think the models are falling into place with a more western/stronger solution. Remember, the stronger the low, the further west it will end up. That's because it will be easier for it to punch into the baroclinic zone. The 21Z RUC 12HR forecast has the 500MB vort and jet even stronger than the ETA and GFS at 0900Z tomorrow, with SFC low further northwest. A look at the FSL RUC 20KM (out to 48 hours), reveals a SFC low in northwestern OH of around 990MB with very intense precip surrounding the northwest side of the low.

If this trend continues and jogs much further west with the 00Z and 06Z runs, I may be talking about rain as well...

BTW... KCLE is calling for 8-16 inch storm total accumulations, and that was with the weaker 12Z ETA... The 18Z is a bit stronger and has more QPF...

In general, I will stick with my first though and say someone will end up with 18-24 inches by the time it's all said and done, as long as the deeper trend continues.
 
I'm hoping we can at least see the western fringe of the cirrus deck, that will be more than exciting :p. Enjoy this storm all you easterners...

ETA is movin' on west, and getting stronger... Since the event is still a solid 24-36 hours away, and if this westward trend continues, maybe you will get snow after all Joel...

I'll hold you to that. 8)

I'm thinking NWS offices will have to make some big changes with the A.M. forecast package regarding the ongoing warnings/watches. DTX menioned that if the 18Z run continued a pronounced westward trend, significant changes to the forecast would need to be made. Nothing is worse than getting a blizzard/snowstorm on one of the busiest travel days, especially when it wasn't predicted until 24 hours or less in advance (no significant warning for ground crews and the road commission). Hopefully I get hammered with this storm, my area kind of missed out on the Blizzard of 1999 (we only got 10 inches), whereas Chicago got just over 24 inches.
 
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