Robert Dewey
EF5
You and I are the only ones praying for this further east track, LOL... A storm track that dumps a foot on you, would likely dump a foot on me as well.
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Monster Snowstorm? 12/23
- Thread starter Robert Dewey
- Start date
You and I are the only ones praying for this further east track, LOL... A storm track that dumps a foot on you, would likely dump a foot on me as well.
John Gnuechtel
EF3
I was planning on making the drive up to Chicago on Wednesday, but now it looks like I may have to move those plans up a day. So much for an event free trip. 
Robert Dewey
EF5
GFS is back to a Robert and Chris solution, 
Hopefully things don't fizzle out all together, and no one gets anything... Still TONS of QPF being thrown into 20F air, which would be a 15:1 snow ratio, or even higher...
Hopefully things don't fizzle out all together, and no one gets anything... Still TONS of QPF being thrown into 20F air, which would be a 15:1 snow ratio, or even higher...
Chris Hayes
EF5
GFS is back to a Robert and Chris solution,
Hopefully things don't fizzle out all together, and no one gets anything... Still TONS of QPF being thrown into 20F air, which would be a 15:1 snow ratio, or even higher...
what does QPF mean? Is that Snow to water or Rain to snow?
Chris Hayes
EF5
For Christmas I want a 10-15 inch snowstorm with 60mph winds :lol:
Chris Hayes
EF5
I just looked at the 90 hour GFS. Thats no good for my area of Ohio. I live in NE Ohio, not NW :cry: Move to the east PLEEEAAASSSEEE
mikegeukes
EF5
Some definitons of QPF
Mike
Robert Dewey
EF5
LOL, I guess I'm stuck in the middle...
QPF is Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (roughly how much liquid should fall, given the dynamics/etc.). You take the snow/liquid ratio, and apply it to the QPF. For instance, doing this for Detroit, MI yields roughtly 23 inches over a 36 hour period (at a 15:1 ratio)... Obviously things aren't really that simple, but that's just wishcasting...
Robert Dewey
EF5
After fully reviewing the ETA/GFS/GEM models, I would have to say that I would side more with a GEM/GFS solution (but hey, I could be biased, LOL). The GFS seems to be consistant with strength, while the GEM seems to be consistant with the track... I don't think the current GFS is too far off (at least for now anyway), and the GEM goes from 1003MB to 990MB in 24 hours, and then to 977MB in another 24 hour step. With the amount of cold air, very tight baroclinicity, rapidly strengthening jet stream (as seen on all models), a stronger solution would seem more than likely.
I would be willing to bet that someone, somewhere, will see two feet by the time everything is said and done, whether it's the midwest, or the east coast, LOL, there is alot of potential here...
I would be willing to bet that someone, somewhere, will see two feet by the time everything is said and done, whether it's the midwest, or the east coast, LOL, there is alot of potential here...
nickgrillo
EF5
Well, heck I'm actually hoping something like this will happen. I can't stand cold temperatures, especially today's 5 degree high for southern Macomb County. :?
I also developed a sore throad today; thank God no fever. Probably sinus; or the result of me going into the cold for the past weeks without a coat on (...whoops!).
Let's hope for a nice 2 feet of snow with blizzard conditions for Detroit. I'm talking 60-70 mph winds and extremely heavy snow! Sweet.
I always hope for the day when we will get a SVR issued for a snowstorm with 60 mph winds. BTW, anybody from Michigan see the lightning-filled snowstorm and 40-45 mph winds in Oakland county on Thursday? It was pretty cool.
I hope this will end up hitting Detroit!!
I also developed a sore throad today; thank God no fever. Probably sinus; or the result of me going into the cold for the past weeks without a coat on (...whoops!).
Let's hope for a nice 2 feet of snow with blizzard conditions for Detroit. I'm talking 60-70 mph winds and extremely heavy snow! Sweet.
I always hope for the day when we will get a SVR issued for a snowstorm with 60 mph winds.
BTW, anybody from Michigan see the lightning-filled snowstorm and 40-45 mph winds in Oakland county on Thursday? It was pretty cool.I hope this will end up hitting Detroit!!
Robert Dewey
EF5
Well, since I am the only person on this board from Oakland County, I guess I am obligated to respond, LOL... Yes, I seen that... Thought it was my imagination at first. Those flakes were HUGE, I'm talking half dollar sized. Too bad it only last for 15 minutes. Hopefully this Thursday will prove similar, but for a much longer duration...
Joel Wright
EF5
Now the 0Z GFS has us getting nothing. Ah you gotta love the flip flopping runs. It's all up in the air until we near 60hrs.......
Robert Dewey
EF5
Wow, the 00Z UKMET is really bombing this thing out at 987MB over southern Ontario...
I somewhat agree with Joel, but I would take that 60 hours down to about 36 hours. I am thinking this storm will be on the stronger side, between the UKMET and GFS. Lows originating in the southern Plains have been forecasted too weak by models in general these past couple months (in accordance with NWS discussions).
GRR mentions "near blizzard conditions", and DTX says "snowfall over 6 inches is possible"...
I somewhat agree with Joel, but I would take that 60 hours down to about 36 hours. I am thinking this storm will be on the stronger side, between the UKMET and GFS. Lows originating in the southern Plains have been forecasted too weak by models in general these past couple months (in accordance with NWS discussions).
GRR mentions "near blizzard conditions", and DTX says "snowfall over 6 inches is possible"...
Robert Dewey
EF5
Latest 12Z ETA is coming in and is now out to 60 hours as of this post. It's quite a bit stronger with the upper level jet, and more agressive with the phasing. But, the low level circulation is much weaker, and thus further east. This doesn't seem to make sense, as a stronger jet stream and more phasing would tend to create a stronger storm... I'm not feeling the ETA too much, and it hasn't really been as consistant with it's strength as the GFS has, so we will have to wait and see what that says...
But then again, the ETA could have the right idea, as the cold air in the northern Plains/Midwest would tend to keep the storm from making too much westward progress, and the dry air would prevent significant QPF...
Interestingly, the NGM is more on the side of the GFS (at least the old runs of the GFS, the 12Z isn't out yet). It is stronger at upper levels, and it reflects this well in the low levels with a deeper circulation at 48 hours. If this GFS is consistant with it's last run, then I would say that the GFS would be the model of choice for this event, but if it sides towards the ETA, then obviously the ETA would be the model of choice...
But then again, the ETA could have the right idea, as the cold air in the northern Plains/Midwest would tend to keep the storm from making too much westward progress, and the dry air would prevent significant QPF...
Interestingly, the NGM is more on the side of the GFS (at least the old runs of the GFS, the 12Z isn't out yet). It is stronger at upper levels, and it reflects this well in the low levels with a deeper circulation at 48 hours. If this GFS is consistant with it's last run, then I would say that the GFS would be the model of choice for this event, but if it sides towards the ETA, then obviously the ETA would be the model of choice...
Anthony Petito
EF4
Dang it... and I was hoping for a white Christmas in Omaha 
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