May Chasing 2008

[Paul Sherman]

Well its that time of year again when the Hordes congregate on the Plains in search of Tubes. Will we get a Saturday High Risk like last year when we all got caught in Traffic Jams of Chasers in Kansas or will the Dreaded "DR" Set Up again. Surprised no threads have started on the outlook for Early and Mid May yet as we are coming into the Model Timescales, looking a bit ridgy for the Start of May on current Model Runs, but what do all you guys think ??
Sunbathing around the Hotel Pools or 400-600 Mile Chase days ??

Thoughts

Paul Sherman

 

[Willie Dines]

I'm on the 50 yard line as to whether it will be a quiet or lively chase month, it's hard to say with Aprill being pretty quiet, but that doesn't mean May couldn't turn out to be a tube fest, I think that it's merely a case of wait and see.

In other words, I'm not going to make any guess' because guess work is useless when it comes to forcasting of any kind and forcasting is most definitely not my fortee, (Although I hope to change that soon).

Willie

 

[David Drummond]

I know this sounds crappy, but the only way to really know what this May will bring for you in chasing is wait until June 1st. Anything else is an educated best guess.

 

[Shane Adams]

Couldn't tell ya. All I know is I'm constantly reminded of 2004 at this point.

 

[Jim Leonard]

One thing Im encouraged about is the dreaded Hudson Bay low has not been the dominate feature so far. Lately the problem is what we see almost every year around this time is these pesky cutoff lows. Hopefully these lows will run they're course soon so we can get a more progressive wave pattern. If one of these gets stuck in the GOM or where the one is now off the south atlantic coast that could shut down the good tropical juice for a week or more or like 2006 over 4 weeks.

 

[Bill Tabor]

The best cure for a DR May is to chase April when you've got 'em.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

So far, in the last two days, I saw an omega block that could give us a ridge upon our heads for at least 7 days,starting from april 29th, confirmed by GFS and ECMWF models. I'm anxious to see today's update. To be honest that is the only pattern I didn't want to see, opening the long range page.

Those are long range forecast and I don't believe it will verify at all.

 

[David Wolfson]

Very encouraging for 4/30 - 5/9! I'm beginning to believe in the long wave trough settling in the west. The models seem to be giving up on the cut-offs embedded in the east and central US solution in favor of progressive short waves riding the western trough and into the eastern ridging. If this proves out it looks like a busy week or two.

 

[Kem Poyner]

may chase

Im heading out from Phoenix on May 3rd. I will be out chasing for a couple weeks. I moved my trip ahead to the beginning of May instead my usual late May gig. I have seen so many small tornados and now am a big game hunter. Know where I can find some Elk??!! The Woman can run a little large out there also...can always find....Hey, what happens in Ponca City stays in Ponca City!
Kem

 

[Kem Poyner]

may day

Mayday Mayday. It looks like May will start off with a bang. Long range forcasts show good possibilities April 30 and May 1. I just have a gut feeling that May is going to be very busy. But it is probably just gas.

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Hmm I would be very depressed if there is a good chance on the first of May seeing that I have a mandatory banquet =/... Would be nice if something slowed down or sped up =) for either that Wednesday or Friday.

 

[Greg Blumberg]

I would love a couple of days 5/7-5/9 to chase before I fly back home. Hoping that the early May will bring at least one nice, chaseable outbreak that's not on an exam day. Right now it looks like that dream looks possible.

 

[Ian Miller]

I wonder if the patterns are going to push the action northwards again by the end of the month?

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Thanks to La Nina, we are/have been having what we used to consider a fairly "typical" chase season. Action in the so. plains in March/April. There have been discreet, slow-moving supercells down there too, I've noticed. Not a lot happening this year in the way of fast-moving spring outbreak scenarios. As long as the current trend holds, I would think we'll also see a standard migration of severe northward over the coming month.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Should be out on the plains from at least 5/23 till 6/1. Looking forward to it...

Quick look through 700+ hour forecasts don't impress me though... lol....

But I think that may change. Slight variablility that far out..