Map Room: Should forecasts be limited to only 5 days out.

[KMcCallister]

I vote Yes. In fact, I'd rather see it limited to three days in advance for the same reasons. But, 5 would be an improvement.

 

[mike scantlin]

i vote no. kind of. only because im still in the learning process. i like to look at the forecasts posted, and then i try to see what patterns i can find in the models to better my own forecasting skills. or lack there-of. i guess what im saying is that i would like to have another way of learning how to forecast if this change were to take place. like a thread with links to things that we newbies should check out to get better. im not saying that i dont know anything, im just not as experienced, as i am only 19. im just looking to better myself. anyone that reads this should feel free to PM me any advise or anything of that sort. thanks.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I voted "People are voting to make rules, just to make rules"

Oh wait, that wasn't an option...

 

[rdale]

"i guess what im saying is that i would like to have another way of learning how to forecast if this change were to take place. "

We already have that - but it's a more general forecast in the W&C section. It just leaves Maproom to "real" events...

 

[B Ozanne]

I voted "People are voting to make rules, just to make rules"

Oh wait, that wasn't an option...

I was looking for that option too, but since it wasn't there I voted no.

 

[samuel stone]

Its ridiculous to restrict people who want to talk about long range chase opprotunities. If you dont want to read forecasts that have a higher risk of not verifying, just dont read them, but dont restrict those who do.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

If I'm understanding the correctly, the question isn't whether folks should or should not be allowed to post long-range forecasts. The question, again if I'm understanding correctly, is whether these long-range forecasts should be allowed in the historically high-quality Target Area / Map Room forum. There is inherent uncertainty at >5-7 days out, much more so than at 2-3 days. Again, in the past, folks have posted "pattern change upcoming?"-type of posts in Weather and Chasing, with a Map Room (TA) post starting as the event nears (2-4 days timeframe). The inclusion of 7+ day forecast threads will likely result in some massively long threads (10+ pages), since much of the >5 day forecasting is wishcasting if someone is forecasting anything beyond whether the synoptic environment will be favorable for severe convection somewhere across the country.

 

[Tony Laubach]

My vote; no. Issues like this are generally limited to slower times where we actually are paying attention to anything beyond five days out. During the heart of the season, we usually have enough to keep us busy within 5 days where looking beyond it rarely happens.

This is a temporary problem and I see no reason to put a lid on it. Once the thick of the season kicks in, we'll all be too concerned with what's five or less days out and there will rarely be someone posting a forecast thread so far out when there's other things going on.

Besides, my thoughts are this thread started cause of the FORECAST thread brought up in regards to this weekend... Wishcasting maybe, but we're all eyeing it as the only thing in sight, so as far as I'm concerned, it can stay.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

No. Why do we continue to try and create more rules to serve a few people?

If you post an 8-day (out) forecast in W&C, and then it does start to verify, another thread will then need to be created in TA. If this occurs all the early discussion about the setup will be lost in W&C. Maybe the early forecast discussion thread can keep the reports thread company. Heck, lets just post everything in W&C, and delete TA.

 

[mikegeukes]

I am not implying making more rules, I see nothing
wrong with long range forecasts beyond 5 days, as
long as its posted in weather and chasing, instead
of the maproom. to help cut down clutter, etc.

Mike

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

As one who is in the process of learning to forecast I find the in depth disscusions of long range forcast helpful in the learning process as you can watch the event unfold and learn from the frequnet changes in computer runs!!

 

[James Clark]

I can see both sides of the arguement, but I voted in favor of allowing long term forecasts in the map room. The reason I chose to do this is because in the case of premier chasing opportunities, a pattern can be dicerned earlier than in less prolific events, and more advanced notice can allow more people to get thier personal logistics in line to be able to go witness the event. Of course, we should expect posters to use common sense in this matter, but with the peer- pressure generated by the other members in this community, that should be enough to keep people from abusing this rule.

 

[Pat Lawrence]

I voted yes. However, I think perhaps a new category, such as "long range outlook" may be in order. The word "forecast", to me, implies too much certainty for the later-than-five-day period. Using a different heading would help differenciate between forecasts of higher certainty from those of much lower certainty.

I voted no, but being the weird sort that I am I agree with you. I don't think people need to be controlled regarding where such information/ideas are posted, but I do believe another section would be grand for those interested in longer range forecasts...just to give them a board section for that which interests them most.

Nothing major to me..only a thought.

Pat