Long range model speculation

[Paul Sherman]

Getting excited about this now - We land on the 27th and looks like the 29th is going to be our 1st Shot with the SPC Now Highlighting a Major Trough coming out onto the Plains for the 29th.

Bring it on!

Paul S

 

[Joerg Kudella]

Getting excited about this now - We land on the 27th and looks like the 29th is going to be our 1st Shot with the SPC Now Highlighting a Major Trough coming out onto the Plains for the 29th.

Bring it on!

Paul S

Me too, we land on Sunday. There allready might be some action in advance of this insane through. We hope to get some thunderstorms from Tuesday on. Nothing really serious, but at least an appetizer or two

 

[Thomas Dolmer]

If Delta is flying out from Copenhagen wednesday the 28th, the danish team will arrive just in time for the show too.
We arrive in DFW wednesday evening and will stay at Days Inn just northwest of the airport, unless the choice of target area force us to drive all night.

 

[Joerg Kudella]

If Delta is flying out from Copenhagen wednesday the 28th, the danish team will arrive just in time for the show too.
We arrive in DFW wednesday evening and will stay at Days Inn just northwest of the airport, unless the choice of target area force us to drive all night.

We will also arrive in DFW and made a reservation in Denton for the first night, Best Western Inn & Suites. I will dive right into the pool on sunday evening

 

[Warren Faidley]

The CPC has made some interesting comments concerning the next 90 days. You can go to the main site and read the discussion:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/

I have attached the precipitation outlook graphics.

The CPC discussion does make note of the high soil moisture content in the outlined "above average" graphic --- which in past years has lead to the dryline staying further west. I don't have the time right now as I'm getting ready to CHASE!... but it would be interesting to go back and look at the soil moisture content in past years where major dryline events e.g., 1996 occurred out further west, El Nino year or not.

W.

 

[Joerg Kudella]

Man, I´m starting to get really excited now. The GFS and ECMFW have been pretty consistent the last couple of runs in bringing the next major stormsystem to the plains around Wednesday next week. If any of these charts (0z run) come even close to reality, we will see a couple of amazing chasing days in a row. Stormsaison´s about to crank up the tornadocount I guess. Probably the most breathtaking start of our chasecation I can imagine!

 

[Derek Weston]

Man, I´m starting to get really excited now. The GFS and ECMFW have been pretty consistent the last couple of runs in bringing the next major stormsystem to the plains around Wednesday next week. If any of these charts (0z run) come even close to reality, we will see a couple of amazing chasing days in a row. Stormsaison´s about to crank up the tornadocount I guess. Probably the most breathtaking start of our chasecation I can imagine!

Yeah, though, GFS has been showing meager moisture at times... Of course, seems to consistently underestimate moisture this spring, but...that'd be my concern with this setup. (though I'd think it should work out all right)

 

[Joerg Kudella]

Yeah, though, GFS has been showing meager moisture at times... Of course, seems to consistently underestimate moisture this spring, but...that'd be my concern with this setup. (though I'd think it should work out all right)

You´re right, I saw this too, but I figured that there is still plenty of time for a change in the path of this system.

 

[Derek Weston]

man. latest run. sad face. that trough better not go to waste.

 

[Michael Riedl]

man. latest run. sad face. that trough better not go to waste.

Agreed. This afternoons 12z Run still looked good but tonights 0z GFS was pretty lackluster.

 

[Paul Sherman]

Looks Like ECMWF Firmly on Board for Thursday 29th

 

[Paul Knightley]

Model differences exist for later next week, but the general trend is for another big trough to arrive from the Pacific. The GWO phase looks like moving from 8 to 1, which usually indicates a collapsing Pacific jet, and the generation of a large w'rn US trough. The ECMWF paints a multi-day sloshing dry-line scenario, starting later this week and lasting through May 5!

Of course, subtle features will not be picked up, and such a strong system could promote a strong cold front to surge SE'wards. Even so, if I was about to start my chasecation (sadly not yet - another few weeks!) I would be getting pretty excited about this set-up!

 

[Joerg Kudella]

Model differences exist for later next week, but the general trend is for another big trough to arrive from the Pacific. The GWO phase looks like moving from 8 to 1, which usually indicates a collapsing Pacific jet, and the generation of a large w'rn US trough. The ECMWF paints a multi-day sloshing dry-line scenario, starting later this week and lasting through May 5!

Of course, subtle features will not be picked up, and such a strong system could promote a strong cold front to surge SE'wards. Even so, if I was about to start my chasecation (sadly not yet - another few weeks!) I would be getting pretty excited about this set-up!

We actually began our chasecation, just arrived in Denton, TX and move to Waco, TX tomorrow to get our first possible thunderstorms. There is only a possbile marginal hail threat forecasted but we go for it, better than nothing.
I really don´t know what to think about the through coming in, i´m not convinced that moisture can be surged north right where it is needed. However, we are ready to go!!!

Twisterteam Germany

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I'm liking the evolution of the pattern coming in late-week. Looks like we are going to have an extended period of very chaseable weather across the Plains starting Thu/Fri. Operational models have been pretty erratic with guidance of specific upper air features, but the general overall look is one which I have seen evolve a few times and I can remember several being pretty awesome from a chasing standpoint. Not sure we'll have any outbreak type of days yet, but it's pretty clear we'll be chasing again within the week.

 

[Derek Weston]

I don't like what I'm seeing with the GFS. Unidirectional junk on Thursday... and then all the good moisture pushed too far SE to be chaseable.

Maybe we'll see things switch up, but a once very promising pattern is looking more and more like junk.