Long range model speculation

[Mike Hollingshead]

12z ecmwf shows some hope. Looks like trough for the Thursday timeframe next week, who knows if it can pull enough moisture north in time or not. NAM leaves most of the good juice near the shore through Tuesday so I'd think there's hope. It then develops a larger western trough already by day 10.

This time frame right now feels a bit 2004-esque lol. Jinx. It looked bleak, then bam, hello.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I agree with Mike the 12z ECMWF looks very nice especially around May 10-11 here is the 500mb map.

It also seems there are more troughs lined up behind that trough as well I think tornado season has finally arrived and like mentioned earlier we are now seeing the "early" season setups similar to what we would see in March and early April. I wouldn't be surprised to see the S Plains get their action from Mid-May into early June shifting into the High Plains and C Plains in late May into mid June and eventually moving into the N Plains during late June early July. I also wouldn't be surprised if the summer death ridge doesn't show up for good until mid maybe even late July. Just my 2 cents

 

[Scott Weberpal]

It also seems there are more troughs lined up behind that trough as well I think tornado season has finally arrived and like mentioned earlier we are now seeing the "early" season setups similar to what we would see in March and early April. I wouldn't be surprised to see the S Plains get their action from Mid-May into early June shifting into the High Plains and C Plains in late May into mid June and eventually moving into the N Plains during late June early July. I also wouldn't be surprised if the summer death ridge doesn't show up for good until mid maybe even late July. Just my 2 cents

I don't think we're seeing early season setups now, this has much more to do with El Nino than anything. During El Nino years, tornado activity is generally higher along the high plains (esp. TX panhandle) and from east Texas into the deep south during more typical chase times (April through May). I think what we're seeing is typical late-April/early-May systems, only in El Nino territory. This week couldn't be more classic El Nino.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if the trend of tornadic activity east of I-35 continues through much of May.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

ECMWF/NCEP ENS

The 00Z ECMWF is still showing a trof developing over the western Conus May 10-13th with the NCEP Ensemble Mean also depicting this as well. Looks like the Southern Plains will see some action a little more than a week from now.

 

[Pete Smith]

The 00Z ECMWF is still showing a trof developing over the western Conus May 10-13th with the NCEP Ensemble Mean also depicting this as well. Looks like the Southern Plains will see some action a little more than a week from now.

Yeah, I would be shocked if the Southern Plains goes an entire severe weather season without at least one or two large outbreaks. Except for a couple isolated late evening linear events earlier in April, the Oklahoma City/Tulsa area has not seen anything of interest yet this year. Which is a good thing considering we are coming up on the eleventh anniversary of the devastating Oklahoma City tornado.

Of course if an outbreak or two transpires in a predominantly rural area, I don't think many would complain!

 

[Derek Weston]

bit of light at the end of the tunnel, eh?

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

[Chris Wilburn]

I know it's early, but I am really beginning to like the middle part of next week. Lets say the May 10th-May 14th timeframe. Both the GFS and ECMWF agree on a large trough entering the plains in this general timeframe. Of course the fine details are still up in the air, but it's nice to see both models agree on a large trough entering the plains for the middle part of next week. It's definitely worth keeping an eye on for sure.

 

[Paul Knightley]

The MJO seems to be entering a more active phase - El Nino is also waning, so I think next week could become lively for a time. Doing some forward projection of the MJO, it may be that late next week and into the weekend of the 15th/16th we could see some ridging taking over...however, continuing the projection, a western US trough could be carved out again by around the 20th.

The idea of a ridge close to that time is not something I want! We head out on the 17th, but I've tried to be objective. This is just my take on the MJO phases, etc, so it's not especially scientific!

 

[Mark Blue]

Bump

With our chasecation starting next week on 05/20 and lasting through the Memorial day weekend I can't help but wonder what is on the horizon. The Climate Prediction Center site talks about the long wave pattern for next week, and it appears a trough of some sort is appearing on the west coast on both the GFS and ECMWF, but after last year I always worry about bad conditions. Just wondering what everyone else thinks about the pattern for say 10 days from now. I presume several other folks will be taking their chasecations soon and it's on the minds of many others besides myself.

I should have chased this week the way things are going...

 

[Marc Austin]

Well I'd rather be starting on the 20th than on the 15th. Unfortunately, due to work schedules, conferences, etc. We can only chase for 10 days this year beginning on the 15th. I know we will be dealing with pleasant weather for at least the first 4 days of our chase, but the idea of another "Omega" chase is not exciting me one bit. For what it's worth, models aren't well known for hammering out details over long range periods, but the latest runs of the GFS have me very worried that we may end up in a week and half of sunshine over the plains this year. Anyone else have any thoughts on the coming weeks? I'm sure as soon as our chasecation ends, everything will pick up again. Congrats to all who bagged tornadoes yesterday (May 10). We may not see another opportunity like that this year.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I'm fortunate to have an understanding boss and can start my chasecation either next monday or the monday after next and am almost obsessively watching the computer models for any chase chances wednesday or beyond. I'm not talking about another May 23, 2008 but even marginal chase days would work. I have 3 weeks of chasing again this year and it's my first chase year since '08 so I hope I pick the right week. I'll be making the call on Friday as to whether leave next week or the week after next

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

Mark/Marc,
My vacation starts the 20th also and I too have been looking way ahead in the models. It does not look good at the moment. Hopefully it is way off. I'm anxious for it to get withing 200hrs or so when some other models pick up on it a bit. Mark (Blue) it seems like it was this time last year we were doing the same thing and talking about NW flow events. It may be worse this year the way it is looking and I'm gonna start reading up on upslope events! (any recommendations????)

Things will change between now and then...hopefully for the better.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Things will change between now and then...hopefully for the better.

Hoping for the same! My chase partner and I will be starting our chasecation 2 weeks from today (26th) and will be out thru June 4th. Been guilty of watching the long range GFS, but remain hopeful since it seems that each run seems to vary widely at this point.

 

[Cstok]

I too have a chasecation scheduled for May 21 - 31... and have been obessively watching the models... which flip flop from run to run.. no surprise. While I have been chasing for over 10 years, I still feel that I am a complete noob compared to many on this board as far as forecasting. I have certainly improved, but I am nowhere near where I want to be. That having been said here is my thinking about the last week in May 20th through end of the month.

The ECMWF seems to do better with the long term forecast (again just my opinion), but I do like that with the most recent run as there is a trough positioned off the PNW at the start of the period:

The GFS seems to be showing this trough a day or so later:

But then it rides up along that ridge, up into the northern plains. So I do think there will be something that week... seems like the weekend, but up in the northern plains. NE up to SD. After that it gets a little more dismal... might need your passport to chase in Canada.

Just my 2 cents... in a week or so I will probably look back to my post and laugh because I am probably wrong... and / or the models will flip or flop on the next few runs.

 

[Mark Blue]

I thought according to what I read yesterday (to all concerned who replied) that the CPC was talking about a higher amplitude long wave pattern setting up on the west coast in the 8 - 14 day time frame. They did mention a ridge in the central part of the country, but it would seem to eventually get pushed east. From what I gathered it sounded like it would be late next week, but then again it can change so much between now and then. I'll take another look today at the ECMWF and GFS to see what's happening and chime in tonight.

We have another chasecation planned during the middle of June just in case the aforementioned time frame bombs out.