Long range model speculation

[Warren Faidley]

Going by the GFS alone, I'm rather optimistic about things maybe as early as Sunday and beyond. Looks like assorted forms of favorable flow over portions of the Plains with a healthy return of moisture.

W.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Well..... just as things were beginning to look promising.... whoosh.... there goes early next week... down the drain.

I am getting the feeling that this season is going to be similar to last year. Some events, with potential scattered all over the place, so get ready to drive!

W.

 

[bradjones]

Man I hope your wrong. I cant take another May Like 2009 Gfs does not show anything in the next 384 hours. looks zonal to me

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Well, as everyone who has looked in the last day or so has noticed, the GFS is a disaster at least into the second week of May. Ridging and persistent zonal flow. Vortex II coincidence??

The good news, IMO, is that this is starting considerably earlier than 2009's ridge from hell. So, IMO, there is still plenty of hope for mid-late May and June.

 

[Chris Hayes]

The Euro model shows at least some hope, with a trough coming in mid-late next week.

 

[Marko Korosec]

That is pretty unbelivable how this year's season is strange and doesn't want to change soon. As Jacob already said, I see mostly zonal flow and ridging for the next 10-15 days. Indeed thats GFS model, but the trend is obvious. And yes, maybe earlier ridge will bring some weeks of convective magic later into June. If not, this will be pretty unusual year!

I had a wild speculation back in March that first half of the season will be terrible and it seems I was not wrong at all. But does ENSO phase of 2010 really have such impact?

 

[Chris Hayes]

It's not everything but one of the problems we've been having so far this season is the cold GOM. Well, things are changing!

This is March 29 http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomw.3.29.2010.gif

This is April 29

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwnc.gif

YOU GOTTA LOVE the loop current.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'm really surprised how few chasers are complaining about the abysmal outlook for the near future, considering comments like this from KOUN' s discussion (4-30-10) 2:38 CDT:

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]"IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL PROBABLY BE VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MUCH COOLER AIR MAY THEN SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK."

Maybe after last year, everyone is better prepared for extended down time.

I do feel sorry for VORTEX2. Damn, what crummy luck.

I still think the pattern will make a major active shift at some point.

W.
[/FONT]

 

[Connor McCrorey]

Anyone see the 18Z GFS at 384 hours...??

 

[Chris Hayes]

It's pointless to look at GooFuS beyond 3 hours, but that does give us some hope. lol

 

[Warren Faidley]

My gut feeling after watching model swings, surface temps., global patterns, discussions, CPC outlooks, etc., is that we are still in a winter/spring transition phase, maybe complicated or influenced by the demise of El Nino. We are just now experiencing the typical E/SE US tornado season, e.g., last week in MS and today in MO/AR. I would guess the typical Plains tornado season is just delayed by a week or two.

W.

 

[Jason Boggs]

My gut feeling after watching model swings, surface temps., global patterns, discussions, CPC outlooks, etc., is that we are still in a winter/spring transition phase, maybe complicated or influenced by the demise of El Nino. We are just now experiencing the typical E/SE US tornado season, e.g., last week in MS and today in MO/AR. I would guess the typical Plains tornado season is just delayed by a week or two.

W.

I couldn't have said it better. I agree with you 100% Warren. I have been thinking to myself for a while that spring has been delayed for 2-4 weeks. I think late May into the first half of June will go gangbusters in the southern plains.

To me, it has finally felt like spring the last 2 weeks or so.

 

[Michael Riedl]

Take this for what its worth but Last I checked the MJO was stuck in the "circle of death" which I believe means a pretty inactive weather pattern for the US.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Take this for what its worth but Last I checked the MJO was stuck in the "circle of death" which I believe means a pretty inactive weather pattern for the US.

The latest GFS ensemble phase diagram has the MJO shifting over to phase space 5 by May 10-15th. This was the same space the MJO was in during the Texas panhandle tornadoes last month, although correlation does not equal causation, it is nice to know that the MJO could potentially the located in the right hemisphere to enhance upper level dynamics.

I wouldn't pay too much attention the to operational GFS right now. The 500 HPA spaghetti plots are all over the map past 120 hours. Check out the PMDEPD from HPC last week stated that the EC was out performing the GFS with their own in house verification. It seems recently that the GFS has been catching up to the EC. From the latest European ensemble mean... it looks like mid May could get active again.

 

[Mike Bennett]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=slowstart_tornado

Interesting...check this link regarding the slow start of this season from the NWS office in Norman.....