Long range model speculation

[Eric Bucsela]

I've been watching the GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles for a few days now, and it's beginning to look like next week could get quite nice for chasers. The ECMWF, and now increasingly the GFS, are showing zonal flow gradually transitioning to SW flow, with good instability across the High Plains. Probably premature to sound the alarm, so consider this is a gentle heads-up! Here's hoping these model trends continue!

 

[Robert Edmonds]

I've been watching the GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles for a few days now, and it's beginning to look like next week could get quite nice for chasers. The ECMWF, and now increasingly the GFS, are showing zonal flow gradually transitioning to SW flow, with good instability across the High Plains. Probably premature to sound the alarm, so consider this is a gentle heads-up! Here's hoping these model trends continue!

Hate to jinx it... but the GFS has been quite persistent on bringing this through. Timing has been changing by a couple of days along with the magnitude of it, but it is certainly something I'm keeping my eye on.

 

[JustinRudicel]

Just what I was praying to see as my chasecation is next week from Tuesday the 8th- Sunday the 13th. Euro and UKMET both on board with a couple Lee side lows forming middle and later half of next week. As the trough digs into the Pacific NW and ridge shifts a little to the east. Looking forward to at least a couple decent storms as last year was awful with the death ridge.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

Just what I was praying to see as my chasecation is next week from Tuesday the 8th- Sunday the 13th...

I'd say your timing looks ~perfect. Tonight's 00z models look even better than last night's with the GFS du jour showing a couple tremendous chase days around Thursday & Friday of next week, and the EC running a tad slower with potential action into Saturday. Still some major flip-flopping, especially the GFS, but at least both models are consistently advertising good chase wx somewhere during the latter half of next week (and maybe some earlier too).

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Hate to jinx it... but the GFS has been quite persistent on bringing this through. Timing has been changing by a couple of days along with the magnitude of it, but it is certainly something I'm keeping my eye on.

So true. The GFS has been showing this trough for nearly 5 days now. I actually penciled in a few vacation days begining next Thursday through the follwing Wednesday to cover the expected timing of this trough.

This season has been very tough for me. I have made several mistakes on a couple of good days which kept me from seeing tornadoes. From May 22 to now I have only chased once, and that was a local chase.

This has been an incredible season so far (something similar to 2004) and it appears like it is going to continue for a while....especially up north. I know there are a lot of chasers up north, so I hope you guys get to make the most of this pattern.

 

[Bill Hark]

I am really liking this trough after looking at the 12Z operational GFS outputs. There may be decent chasing as early as next Wednsday; definitely Thursday through Sunday. Friday and Saturday (June 11th and 12th) being the best days for the Great Plains in the Kansas to Nebraska area. The 12Z operational Euro is also in agreement though slightly behind in the eastward progression. Although I don't like to look at anything other than the 500 winds, I do like the southeasterly surface and 850 mb winds especially for Friday. 700 mb temps will be rather high to the south into Kansas. VORTEX is supposed to go to June 15th. I don't know if they can extend by a day or two if, lets say, the 16th is going to be an outbreak.

After a decent chase trip, I probably won't do a spot chase due to funds and time but I hope there are decent storms for those who can go out especially the VORTEX folks.

Bill Hark