Derek Heide
It does look like the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and Southern Prairies of Canada may be getting in on the action by the middle of next week.
Long range model speculation
- Thread starter Chris Wilburn
- Start date
The 0Z ECMWF sure seemed to depict the above scenario for say next Friday 05/21, but the 12Z run has slowed that western trough down substantially. Check out the differences between the two runs:
0Z
http://bit.ly/9RsijE
12Z
http://bit.ly/diS7OD
What a difference one run makes. That appears to be a big ridge in the central part of the country and has me thinking ridge riders in Montana if not Alberta. Hopefully it will break down and not come to fruition. I'm glad we scheduled that second chasecation from June 12th - 20th just in case!
0Z
http://bit.ly/9RsijE
12Z
http://bit.ly/diS7OD
What a difference one run makes. That appears to be a big ridge in the central part of the country and has me thinking ridge riders in Montana if not Alberta. Hopefully it will break down and not come to fruition. I'm glad we scheduled that second chasecation from June 12th - 20th just in case!
Chris Hayes
EF5
May 22, imagine that. FWIW the ECMWF is showing a nice trough coming in at that time as well. I'm about to pull the trigger to leave for my chasecation on monday. I would hate it if I missed even a marginal event this coming week let alone a nice trough like that come sunday, because I wont be able to leave till the 24th if I hold off and wont be able to possibly chase till the 26th.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
So, time to start taking bets on what will eventually happen with this existing western trough. Will the ridge to the east eventually break down and stop forcing all the ejecting shortwaves essentially due north, or will the trough wash out first? 
Only time will tell. In the meantime, have fun in the Dakotas everybody. I'll be cranking up the A/C here and hoping sheer CAPE and very subtle triggers on the tail end of the ridge riders can touch off a few afternoon thundershowers.
Only time will tell. In the meantime, have fun in the Dakotas everybody. I'll be cranking up the A/C here and hoping sheer CAPE and very subtle triggers on the tail end of the ridge riders can touch off a few afternoon thundershowers.
jshields
the long range models have been looking pretty tough again the last several days. just took a look at the latest gfs, and after tomorrow's severe weather chances, which aren't screaming anything too great, i really only saw about 2 more possible good days out of the next 16. again knowing that it is only one model and bound to change some, but i'm not seeing a large area with good shear lined up with good instability. in fact some intense heat is forecast in about 10 days with another building ridge right over the western and central plains. so far here in eastern nebraska, i think we've had only one watch and no warnings here in omaha. i can think of maybe only 3x that there has even been a t-storm here in town. june can be a good month for chasing, but at least according the gfs the first half of the month is going to be pretty disappointing.
Andrea Griffa
EF5
And this is normal, assuming we have just ended an incredible may with wedges for all. That said, I'm really interested in seeing what will happen after june 15 as I believe the season is not finished yet.
Derek Weston
EF5
the end of May was looking questionable for a while. And we know how that turned out...
Things could change quite a bit in that period of time -- in fact, they usually do.
Eric Bucsela
EF2
Not ready to start a thread on this yet, but even in the "short" medium range, May 31 and June 1 are not looking too bad (any thoughts?). That's just before the building western ridge turns the flow northwesterly for a while. After that it looks like zonal-to-NW flow for a couple weeks over the N and maybe Cntrl Plains, with instability sadly displaced south of the good winds.
jshields
the end of may, hasn't been that great imo, minus the two south dakota days. maybe i'm thinking a little too locally, but to me there hasn't been a lot going on. i suppose i could just have my standards too high though
here's hoping next monday/tuesday do something good before that ridge sets in.Mike Hollingshead
Seems as though Tuesday and/or Wednesday could prove quite worthy chase days. The thing about this coming "ridge" is it seems to at least stay sw and not poke north real hard. If one looks out much on the GFS's temps prog's, they'll note just how much cold air wants to hang around the northern US and parts of Canada. Meanwhile HOT air builds to the sw. I'm guessing there will be some rather worthwhile lines/complexes worth chasing along and north of this likely very sharp boundary, that should slosh around. Some of the most amazing storm events, to me, have come from such things. Ala May 27, 2001 type shelf clouds. And others coming off the plains with dirt stacked up to their bottoms...out of this world structure above that. Granted lines are usually not exciting, but neither are a heck of a lot of supercells.
Surely sometime before June is over we'll get a 5 day great stretch with a big lumbering trough. Seems more often than not something along those lines happens in June, even if there's a stretch of some ridging. Thinking mother nature is waiting for the end of V2. She doesn't seem to like that whole idea.
Then there is July. Last year I really wondered why I' d chased so much before July. Seemed better setups were happening in July than either May or June. Course last year that's not saying a heck of a lot. The only problem with July is it's always so damn subtle. You get big cape but flow looks like it can't work. Next thing you know you're home watching the craziest flying eagle deviating and dropping south out there. So then you just start chasing about every single day with cape and no shear out there lol. I'm personally sort of excited. Trying not to blow so much in the way of funds before June for once.
Surely sometime before June is over we'll get a 5 day great stretch with a big lumbering trough. Seems more often than not something along those lines happens in June, even if there's a stretch of some ridging. Thinking mother nature is waiting for the end of V2. She doesn't seem to like that whole idea.
Then there is July. Last year I really wondered why I' d chased so much before July. Seemed better setups were happening in July than either May or June. Course last year that's not saying a heck of a lot. The only problem with July is it's always so damn subtle. You get big cape but flow looks like it can't work. Next thing you know you're home watching the craziest flying eagle deviating and dropping south out there. So then you just start chasing about every single day with cape and no shear out there lol. I'm personally sort of excited. Trying not to blow so much in the way of funds before June for once.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
...yet you've had some of your better tornado days in awhile. Go figure, eh?
For southern Wisconsin, 2010 has been a "Storm season? What storm season?" kind of year so far, much like most of 2009. Not much caring for the fact that nothing looks particularily promising for our supposed climatological peak of early June. We shall see I suppose.
At least I have a job this year, so I probably couldn't chase much even if there were storms but I'd have money to do so on the off chance I could.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
The latest GFS is still spitting out wild swings over it's forecast period, with several interesting and rather persistent hints of excellent NW flow in the future. I personally like the strong NW flow set-ups better than weak 30 kts SW chasing.
W.
W.
Dan Rupnow
EF1
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2008
- Messages
- 78
the end of may, hasn't been that great imo, minus the two south dakota days. maybe i'm thinking a little too locally, but to me there hasn't been a lot going on. i suppose i could just have my standards too high though
Agreed, and for that matter, the beginning of May wasn't that great either IMHO, except of course for the 10th obviously. What really gets me is how truely pathetic it has been in the upper Mississippi valley. Usually IA,WI,MN or IL have something to show by now, but not this year. Usually we will have gotten a couple decent setups the day after a plains outbreak, but not this year. I keep hoping June will turn that around, but the models haven't given much hope to that YET. Its still early though, and I still have faith........I think.
Kevin Walters
EF2
Hopefully June will yield chaseable storms for the areas that have missed out so far this spring. The overall pattern looks interesting for the Central and Northern Plains into the corn belt. As others have mentioned NW flow can produce potent and wide spread outbreaks.
Similar threads
