Long range model speculation

[Niccolò Ubalducci]

Hy all,

Looking far away, this might be a good setup for the High Plains.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-372.png?6

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-6-372.png?6

 

[Mark Blue]

My how fast things change. Two days ago I was under the impression that next week was going to serve up at least two if not three days of severe weather, but after further examination I have to agree with Scott's assessment regarding the GoM and moisture return. It appears that Monday or Tuesday may still hold some promise at least for the southern plains, but thereafter the winds in the GoM seem to have their wires crossed with persistent ridging in the GoM wanting to pull the winds the wrong direction.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Looks like a big ridge of high pressure will be building into the nations midsection for the next 7-10 days after this system clears out. Lots of beautiful warm weather, but severe weather looks rare til at least the latter part of April.

 

[bradjones]

Hmmm. Man this is starting to look like May 2009 i hope this will not persist into late April early May

 

[Chris Hayes]

I dont remember such a slow tornado season. If things dont equalize somewhere down the line this will be one of the slowest years for tornadoes we can remember. Hopefully things will go nuts late may into June.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I dont remember such a slow tornado season. If things dont equalize somewhere down the line this will be one of the slowest years for tornadoes we can remember. Hopefully things will go nuts late may into June.

We are currently quite near the record low year-to-date tornado count for records dating back to 1954 -- see THIS GRAPHIC for the current count (prelim count * 0.85 to account for some 'over-counting' that tends to occur). It looks like a few more will be added with some tornadoes today in the southeastern US, but then we shouldn't add more than a couple through at least the early part of next week. It looks like the record low year-to-date for the middle-to-end of next week (i.e. middle of April) is somewhere in the 85-90 range (crudely estimating based on our current level year-to-date). A quick eyeball estimate shows the average year-to-date tornado count (again, back to 1954) is likely somewhere in the 220-240 range.

Looking just at the prelim tornado reports as counted by LSRs (see THIS GRAPHIC), this is certainly the fewest number of tornadoes year-to-date that we've seen since before 2005 (the above-linked graphic shows tornado reports via LSR for 2005-2010).

As noted, I certainly hope this changes by the time we get into May, since V2 needs a banner year to make up for the one good tornado day year last year (6/5/09, though there apparently is some data supporting a couple of weak tornadoes on other dates). Even if not for V2 reasons, I hope (for my own chasing interests, as well as those of all chasers) that things can pick up soon. At least I'm fortunate enough to have chased the 3/8/10 tornadic supercell, so I'm not too desperate yet.

 

[Scott Olson]

It's a really crazy thing to think about, how inactive this year has been and how the models seem to make the line fall further into April. It's a bit concerning since usually the line follows established trend and would mean a weaker than usual year. Of course, so much can change in a short time with the weather. I must sound annoying or like a broken record but if you take the time to compare the months, ENSO and tornado counts, you will see other quiet early seasons and they happen to have similar ENSO and most of them show that the season really starts cranking up in June and that May is rather mediocre. It doesn't necessairlaly mean it's going to be a way weaker than normal year. Greg Forbes did a similar analysis that compared ENSO in a pre-spring period and found that it was slightly more above active. I think the current tornado numbers make that pretty unlikely at this point but I think between May- July the tornado numbers will be about where they need to be. But I have a hard time grapsing a day to day active tornado pattern in early May.

I do want to believe it's possible. Those first two weeks of May were to be my chase vacation but after looking and researching to no end, I can't see anything but the perfect May trick.

I can add my own addendum, there is more to it and certainly there are other reasons why things could change quickly and there is no model that can see out far enough. But I'm just offering up what I think is a probalistic forecast based on:

-Historical years similar to this one.
- Historical years with ENSO going into spring with similar levels.
- Condition of GoM

I want everyone to have a good time this year and get some great tornadoes.

Carpe Diem!

 

[Chris Hayes]

We're talking about how slow it is. Not saying it's going to happen, but at the end of chase season, watch it be a year that we'll never forget and we have a couple of weeks like in 2004 or 2008.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I remember somebody saying how in 2004 they thought it was going to be one of the worst seasons ever with a lack of upper support and moisture all of March and April with a few spotty tornado events. Then after mid-May and the Gulf finally warmed up it turned into a season for the ages! You just never know with the weather I don't even consider the "main" season til about April 20th or so.

 

[Adam Adkins]

The weather has been very interesting for a while now. Starting with last year with the day after day of severe weather in Colorado - a frequency that is rare, to the below normal temperatures of this winter and record snow amounts. Perhaps whatever has caused all this (El Nino?) is also affecting our severe season (transition to ENSO neutral?).

 

[Bryan Stokes]

Well, it looks like this thread is beginning to take a negative turn, just like last year. Folks, it's still very early in the season. We're only a few days into April you know...

Bryan

 

[Derek Weston]

While 2008 had quite the tornado tally, it wasn't so hot for the plains early on through April. Most of the major days were happening in the Southeast and Mid-south . . . not where most chasers are interested.

The good news is that through this point in early April most of the activity in a given year is going to have happened in areas not too chasable.

We've probably not really missed out on that much in the way of good chasing.

Heck, we could come in well below average tornado count wise for 2010 and still have a very happy chasing community come summer time if all the action in the spring happened in the right locations at the right times. The rest of the year could be crap but if May and June go down as good months most people are set.

 

[Jeff Hawkins]

Last year was my first year chasing in the plains, so being the newb I am, I'm getting a bit edgy about the season so far. It's been tempered a bit by 2 things for me...I sold my laptop last fall, and am waiting for a sale before buying a new one (glad to see I haven't really missed any big events yet)...and following the posts here by more experienced forecasters and prognosticaters who have said here and elsewhere that the long range forecasts indicated a persistent zonal flow and GoM temps below average would inhibit the chances of severe storms early in the season...seems to be playing itself out as predicted.

I am hoping by mid May to end of June will be a turnaround and we'll see more activity worth the insanity of long drives, fast food, and all the other "fun" that goes with chasing storms.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I wrote about this issue on my blog a week or so ago. I'm always somewhat perplexed when chasers from the midwest and the plains get overly concerned about a low tornado count in March and even parts of early April. While I myself even get excited on March 1st with meteorological spring coming around, you have you ask yourself where are these tornadoes that typically occur during January thru early April. While tornado events do happen in chaseable areas at times, the majority of these tornadoes are found in the gulf coast and southeastern US. When we have a low tornado count on March 20th, you really can't tell me you're honestly missing those tornadoes you would have otherwise seen in southern Georgia.

2008 was not all that exciting early on and had it's count inflated by February 8th. There were a couple chase days, but the majority of days I chased in April 2008 were low instability shear fests that didn't pan out at all.

It's frustrating for sure, but when the plains and midwest are just now entering their prime season you can't really call it a bad chasing year. It's like your favorite major league baseball team dropping their first two games and writing the last 160 off. January thru March (even mid April usually) are like spring training. They really don't mean a lot unless you live in the south and want to attend the events that no one else really cares to bother with.

At least unlike 2009, the quiet severe weather pattern at least looks to provide some beautiful spring weather. Most of April 2009 was spent indoors with 40 degree temperatures and drizzle. At least the down time can be spent being productive outdoors and getting rid of cabin fever.

Sorry, I suppose this entire post belongs in the "slow season" thread.

We just got out of a very active period. No, those systems did not provide the tornado hopes we had but it is what it is. It's time for a little down period, but I have faith that things will pick back up again. Give it time and hope for a big late April and early May.

An average or above average January thru March in the gulf coast doesn't mean jack to the juicy May and June in the plains.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I agree about 2008. Until the beginning of May, 2008 lacked any real chase opportunities.

2003 was a monster year and most of the action happened from April 15 to May 15.

Justin tells me how everyone was writing off 2004 by mid April, because there was no moisture for any of the systems to work with. That sounds really familiar. We all know how 2004 ended.

Its too early to get down on the season. As most of us know tornado activity can ramp up quickly in May and by June you are almost guaranteed successive days of chasing somewhere on the Plains.