Long range model speculation

Boy if moisture gets screwed up for what is on the 0z GFS for the 5th and 6th of April I for one will throw a tantrum....with that sort of setup getting hosed. 18z picked up on that earlier system for that period. Now that is how shear should look. Front is into the gulf on the 3rd, sigh. Not sure I want to see moisture on the rest of this run....as I wait on it to update on twisterdata. Kind of sucks seeing it that far out on ncep and seeing the shear in place and waiting on dews lol. Guessing they'll be late on the 5th.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_300_168l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_850_168l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_168l.gif

How things should look! Aaarrrgghhh I wish moisture return was certain to not be an issue, but of course it will be.

Yeah that one really needs to come out a day slower, which is probably more likely given such a big change from 12z timing and ECMWF also saying slower. My guess something big happens on the plains the 6th.
 
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Todays 12z run looks pretty good for that April 5th system. It ejects much faster though and really plows the gulf afterwards...which is what I don't like, but the 5th looks pretty good right now.

At least the pattern is to remain active, its better than the pattern we've been stuck in since last year thats for sure.

The title of this thread really should be changed or a new one started.
 
Adam Lucio said:
Todays 12z run looks pretty good for that April 5th system. It ejects much faster though and really plows the gulf afterwards...which is what I don't like, but the 5th looks pretty good right now.

At least the pattern is to remain active, its better than the pattern we've been stuck in since last year thats for sure.

The title of this thread really should be changed or a new one started.
Click to expand...

The only problem with this system is that it speeds up greatly every run, moving the target area east and killing the opportunity for moisture return. I'm not convinced this one will even look good after another couple model runs. Perhaps I'm just being cranky after a long winter, but looking at the trends of this system over the last 3 model runs it just screams another long range let down that will look less and less fantastic as it nears.

Just look at the last three model outputs for 0z April 6th:

12z run from today (3/30)
0z run from last night
12z run from yesterday

I can't get excited about any one given day, or a setup in general when it's changing -drastically- every model run, and for the worse at that! Show me the system slowing down, and perhaps I'll pay it some mind, but a rapidly accelerating system this time of the year won't get the time of day from me at this point.

Last nights run of the ecmwf still looked good for more of an April 6th and 7th show, so perhaps all is not lost but I don't see anything overly exciting just yet. Even that looked more like an April 7th show in the midwest, so those on the plains would still get screwed even if that ended up verifying.
 
The one good thing about the system on the 5th or maybe 6th is how it comes out, that has been fairly consistent even with it speeding up. Seems so hard anymore to get a system to come out a little more classic looking as far as winds/shear. Like not backed to hell 500s along with no veering of the low level jet. Got flat 500 flow and sse low level jet. Such a big plus for a system.

I think things can only speed up so much before a couple runs will tame that down and possibly back it up. Course last night I was thinking a big event on the 6th. I doubt it speeds it up any further from where the gfs has it now with eastern NE area on the 5th. Though ECMWF did speed things up last run too, but still well west of GFS today. Seems it's likely the GFS will end up averaging somewhere just west of where it is now and on the 5th. The good news was seeing it actually get dews north in time. I bet that day when it gets here will make me think a lot of April 15, 2006 Beatrice NE. Most including myself figured no way in hell a 60 TD would make it to NE but it somehow managed.

I don't know, this one just has a huge part going for it...how it comes out and orientation of things/winds. Seems like it has to be a bit too fast by now, but probably wishcasting I guess.

Glancing at 0z ECMWF and it has it way way west of GFS today with sfc low on WY/NE border. I think splitting the difference with current GFS would be a fairly likely scenario. Hell it's about a day slower than GFS. Of course it is speeding up too from where it was. Hopefully when it comes out in the next hour it will be well west of GFS still.

Edit: 12z ECMWF thankfully remains slower.

12z ECMWF run 500mb trough axis

12z GFS run 500mb trough axis

Just a hair different lol.

Monday morning GFS 850mb TDs

Monday morning ECMWF 850mb TDs(and ECMWF has more of a Tuesday event)
 
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This is starting to look pretty interesting, Mike. Latest GFS run looked pretty good here -- becoming more and more optimistic about decent instability. Of course...timing is a hell of a lot different with the ECMWF -- either way, looks like we've got a real shot with this one.
 
12z GFS slowed down quite a bit, and while the ecmwf looks a little less progressive with the trough keeping it around longer still thinking they will eventually converge on a big day for the 6th. My gut is probably lying to me, but I really feel like ultimately April 6th will end up being the better day out of the next week. Perhaps maybe even the 7th. Just think the 5th is probably going to be a little bit early. Maybe some svr in the western plains, but probably not the events that potentially lay after it. Just think the GFS is still too fast ejecting that thing out and that it will really start to dig in on Tues/Wed, and after sucking some moisture for a couple days following this weekends system a good tornado day or two could be in store. Getting redundant now, but just really feeling Tuesday is going to be the day, probably in Iowa or very near there. That area is just "due" for a big April day, and that's the vibe I'm getting right now given the latest model trends. I'm sure I'll be wrong though, so everyone go ahead and take Monday off.
 
I was wondering what is on the horizon after this current system comes in for tomorrow and Tuesday, and I was pleasantly surprised by what I saw on the European model for anywhere between Monday 4/12 through Wednesday 04/14. I just glanced at the 500 mb chart, but it appears another trough will set up over the western US providing nice mid-level flow out of the SW.

04/12/10 12Z

http://bit.ly/cn0FZs

04/14/10 12Z

http://bit.ly/cL3k4q

There is always more to the equation than just this, but it's a good start!
 
The GFS has been consistent in bringing in a trough toward the end of the upcoming weekend. Too early to discuss any details, but it appears that after Tuesday, this may be our next shot at a chaseable system.
 
Still looking good

The ECMWF is holding strong and picking up on a nice looking long-wave pattern for a week from now. Anywhere between Sunday and Thursday now there are several days in a row with potential if this verifies.

Start here and cycle through the next four frames if you're interested:

http://bit.ly/bwunEs

The GFS is indicating a trough on several successive days, but appears to diverge from the ECMWF in the latter time frame out to 240 hours.

http://bit.ly/cPXLtt

Upstream there appears to be another deep low waiting in the wings. I'm liking to looks of what these models are indicating for the near term.
 
I'm very unthrilled at most of what I'm seeing on the GFS. Even though there is a trough and at another point a closed low progged, it looks as if the general pattern is not going to be conductive at all for the GoM return. We have an intrusion into the gulf in the next 36 hours followed by prolonged periods of easterly flow in an area that is -2C anomaly. But wait, there's more! That period is followed by another strong southern jet streak and intrusion into the gulf wrapping up the last ten days of April.

But there is a glimmer of hope in the middle of the ugliness.
The 13th of April, possibly give or take a day. The GFS/ECMWF both show an incoming trough, with the ECMWF a bit slower and both have significant negative tilt but the ECMWF is better oriented and better timed. With the positioning and speed of the ECMWF I think we could get a reasonably good chase day out of it. As for the GFS the low is positioned in Canada, with 55 degree dewpoints just barely getting into Nebraska. By the GFS own forecast, it's only modest instability, at best. That extra half-day to allow strong moisture return and more concentrateddifference and I think that could be one of the best (and sadly one of the few *GOOD) oppurtunities of the next few weeks.
 
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Good day all,

I see the SAME pattern CONSISTANTLY on the GFS ... Big H5 Pacific trough moving into the SW USA with difluent flow over TX / OK / KS by Tuesday (4-13) give or take a day.
 
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