Let Winter Begin: Northeast Blizzard??

[HAltschule]

I am very confident of a siginifcant arctic outbreak in the Eastern Half of the US between 12/5-12/13/2006. I know it's premature but the long range models are indicating the 1st real shot of arctic cold for the Eastern half of the country from December 5-13 and onward. High temperatures in the Northeastern US might struggle to get out of the upper 20's or low 30's on a coupld of days in that timeframe.

To complicate matters, these models also generate a nice bonafide Nor'Easter with possible Blizzard conditions for parts of New Jersey into Eastern New England on or about 12/5-12/7/06. One or two Alberta Clippers are forecast a few days thereafter as well. There is a 300mb jetstream of 150-200kts and a digging mid-level jet that should keep this coastal storm close enough to the coast to keep it interesting. If all of this comes into play, and it is still early, we could be looking at our first major East Coast Snowstorm with a prolonged period of cold, arctic air.

Feel free to chime in on this obvious pattern change with your prognostications or comments.

 

[Andrew Sorce]

Not sure what model your using, but the artic outbreak looks to be all over and done with by the time period your referencing "12/5-12/13/2006". Dont get me wrong, I'm excited about the outbreak, but there appears to be a strong return flow on the backside of that trough, bringing temps right back into seasonal ranges come 12/5-12/10. At least the initial outbreak looks cold enough and deep enough to initiate a strong lake response, and hopefully it will be enough to get some snowmaking done at the local resort.

 

[HAltschule]

Check out the GFS. 512 Thicknesses into Michigan and entering New York State on 12/13/06. The model has backed off of the big coastal for the time being.

 

[Andrew Sorce]

I was wondering if you had a link to the models you use most frequently. The GFS I was looking at, only goes out 10 days, thefore I'm still in the dark in terms of 12/13. Always looking for new online weather sites, thanks in advance.

 

[HAltschule]

Use these models, especially the new 12z GFS, and you will clearly see the cold air moving in followed by a no nonsense arctic air mass moving across the U.S. during the 1st 2 weeks of December as I had mentioned earlier. In addition, the GFS still has a major Nor'Easter threatening significant accumulating snow and/or ice for many parts of New England and the interior Mid-Atlantic this coming Thursday-Saturday (12/1-12/3).

PS: It looks like a Rockies/Great Plains Blizzard will be setting up and moving into the Midwestern States around 12/10. High temperatures may struggle to get out of the single digits or teens from Kansas up thru the Dakotas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

http://weather.cod.edu/models/