La Nina again?

[Derek Weston]

Looking more and more like it...

Ed Barry seems to think so:
http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

Could be another cold/wet winter across the central section.

Will be interesting to see what the transition to spring looks like in 09 considering what we saw with a moderately strong La Nina in 08. (which was almost a delayed spring across many locations in the US)

 

[Christine Hudnall]

Yes, according to this: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

[Doug Mitchell]

And yes, we will be subjected to yet another season of the media claiming that the tornado outbreaks in the SE USA are because of global warming. Nevermind La Nina...it's all global warming's fault.

 

[Barb Mayes]

La Nina conditions during the convective season tends to favor an active tornado season across the central Plains into the lower/middle Mississippi River valley (looking at both number of significant tornadoes and number of tornado days). Of course, not every La Nina spring is active, but the odds shift in that direction.

Then again, the presence of VORTEX2 might offset that tendency ... .

It will be interesting to monitor the evolution of this La Nina into the March-June months. The stronger it becomes, and the longer it stays, the more impact it tends to have on the weather patterns. About half the climate models indicate a weakening by late spring, but the other half hold onto La Nina conditions into the fall. The development of a La Nina at this time of year is fairly unprecedented, so its evolution could also end up outside the expected, as well.

 

[Matt Gingery]

I agree that La Nina seasons tend to be active. Colorado State U. did a report, and it is available somewhere online in regards to the increased # of tornadoes as well as strong tornadoes during a La Nina season. Last season we were in a fading La Nina pattern, and it was very active. Also, the due to the fact that it tends to cause a spring to show late means that the tornado season will last well into June. Looking at past June seasons you can see an active spike last 2 years, and I believe from mid May to mid June this year will be one of the most active periods on record.

 

[Jason Boggs]

It won't be active in the TX panhandle if we don't get any rain anytime soon.

 

[Chris Nuttall]

It won't be active in the TX panhandle if we don't get any rain anytime soon.

Which is why La Nina years tend to lead to below normal tornado activity for the Panhandles. This was the case last year, too. Of course, we could always be making up for 2007....

 

[Marc Austin]

La Nina is typically bad news for folks here in Florida. Back in 2000, the wildfires were terrible! Meteorologists down here are already starting to warn of a potentially very active wildfire season during the summer. We haven't had much rain lately, and it's been a pretty dry winter, so I'd believe anyone who told me we were headed for La Nina. I just hope it isn't as strong as it was those few years ago. I don't want to smell smoke again all summer long.