Is The Season Over?

[Anthony Silver]

IMO, the chase season isnt over until late fall. Sure we're getting closer to summer now, and the window for major severe weather outbreaks is coming to a close, but tornadoes and other severe weather can still occur well into the summer months, even though the events tend to be more isolated. Summer usually brings MCS activity to the Plains region, and with that comes lightning photos!

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Not by a long shot. Not even in the southern Plains-Oklahoma is getting a big honkin' derecho (which organized from earlier supercells) blasting through right now. The CPC Hazards Outlook ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ts/threats.html ) hints at an active severe weather pattern continuing for much of the Midwest. They only have one area outlined on the map, but talk about several others in the discussion.

I think some areas are going to be quiet at least until mid-next week thanks to ridging, but as long as troughs out west keep sending shortwave energy across the country... Not to mention that in mid-late June into July, it is not uncommon to see RICH 70+ moisture well into the northern Plains.

 

[Warren Eckels]

I-94

Don't think Oklahoma City...think I-94. A passport may come in handy. So will lots and lots of water.

I just checked out the 6/18 0Z GFS run and the SPC convective outlooks, and the Plains south of I-80 are in for a heat wave with little precipitation. The Dakotas, Canadian Prairies and the Midwest plan to host the northeast quadrant of a ridge over the central and southern Plains for the next two weeks.

In very rough terms, a weak cold front will go through the Great Lakes on June 21, but the Plains ridge will assert itself on the 23rd in brutal terms (97 F in Minneapolis and Chicago, 100 F in Des Moines). On the 24th, an area of convection from Minneapolis to Detroit is expected.

Beyond that, models can only tell the most general trends. It's tempting to say that the I-94 corridor will be hovering around 95 F from June 23 to July 2, but more than a week out, all that can be said with any assurance is "above normal temperatures likely".

 

[Geoff Boyle]

Nah, it's just starting for me. I hope the first 2 weeks of July are as good as last year.