Irene

[Mike Davis]

The buzz in Northeast Florida, today 8-18-11 is about Irene. Yeah, not even named as yet, but maybe the strongest possibility for a Hurricane in a few years for this vicinity.

Anyone with long range thoughts?

 

[rdale]

I think it's far too early to pin down a strike path into NE Florida.

 

[Jason Mills]

I think it is transitioning to more of a Gulf of Mexico threat.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The GFS has been forecasting a "mystery" hurricane for the last week, now showing up as a threat in the 165hr time frame. First it was the NC / SC area and over time it's shifted towards Florida. This forecast was made long before the two disturbances / waves formed off the western coast of Africa. If it proves true, it would be an amazing forecast, or a lucky guess based on climatology.

Regardless, it's way too early to say if and when a hurricane will hit.

W.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

Mostly likely a FL/E Gulf threat... unlikely that it'll make it to the W Gulf. East Coast from GA north stands a decent chance of a hit (around 15-20%?).

I'll laugh if 98L gets named first and this thread has to be changed to Jose (assuming TD 8 gets named TS Harvey soon).

 

[Jason Foster]

It was nice to see the second invest initiated at a decent percentage right off the coast of Africa. Been watching that area for a bit while it was in Africa. It was not looking great for a bit there, now the activity is bubbling. I think the GFS might be on to something...even if doesn't have it nearly right, it certainly seems to be seeing something.

Fingers crossed that either of the two invests in the e.Atl. are going to mean a "road trip" for me. Otherwise...I need to get ointment for that 'need to chase' itch.

 

[Mike Davis]

Good posts by all ! After the Emily long range accurate forecast of dissipation, it will be interesting to see if this storm, in fact, becomes Irene. It would certainly appear that newly named "Harvey" will stay south of Florida.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Back from my trip to Jamicia (Family hoiliday)

ECMWF (which seems to be the tropical model of choice during 2011) places 97L as a potent tropical system over South West Florida next Saturday 27th. However all this is a mute point due to the affects of land intereactions which can not be fully resolved at this time.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The latest model runs are pretty much in agreement in regards to any substantial flow to push the system east, so I'm pretty confident the system will effect some part of the US late next week or early next week if it moves into the Gulf. There is also (ATM) good agreement within the model sets of the path, taking the system right over the worse terrain for disrupting the flow. However, if the storm path moves just a little west, then its a different story.

Ready to go!

W.

 

[Jason Harris]

Based on latest recon 97 looks to skip being a TD and get announced as a TS Irene and practically hurricane. Over or near cuba and then?
Around 63 mph it seems:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Forward motion is currently hampering the west winds - once a slow down occurs (full decouple from the wave) then I expect slow down in forward motion and west winds to develop.

 

[Mike Davis]

Excellent synopsis !
I am thinking the upper level pattern & the way it evolves will be the big factor in the movement of "Irene" next week.
That Trough from Maine to FL might slow the system some and make it a little harder to predict.

 

[Jason Harris]

Lot of excitement and speculation brewing over this NHC comment:
--

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH AS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON THE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

 

[Mike Moore]

Pretty significant model shift East this morning. It will be interesting to see the next runs.

 

[Jason Foster]

I'm at 30% go for intercept on this. Lots to consider still. Mountains being the biggest factor at the moment. Not sure what is in store. The east shift is different, but I still could see it. The current runs don't seem to show any chance the terrain is going to be a factor of some degree. Post mountain, not sure I see enough time/distance for the storm to regain strength. However, even if weak, it would be nice to a) be in Florida (see friends, so some other business) and b) catch the first real cane of the season.