Mike Johnston
EF5
You can fly into Charleston, SC. Might have to make a stop to change planes in Atlanta or Charlotte, though.
Irene
- Thread starter Mike Davis
- Start date
You can fly into Charleston, SC. Might have to make a stop to change planes in Atlanta or Charlotte, though.
Mike Smith
ATL would probably be your best bet. You are 5.3 hours from JAX (just drove it 10 days ago), closer to other areas on the coast farther north.
ChristianTerry
NHC gives Irene a landfall at 8 AM on Saturday in South Carolina as a major hurricane. Yikes!!! Been awhile since one has hit there.
Mike Smith
Hugo, 1989, category 4.
Ari Brown
EF0
If the NHC forecast verifies.... Irene will not be a 115 mph Cat 3 going into South Carolina. The NHC forecast brings it to that intensity off of South Florida and even AFTER that point it's got days over hot water in an environment conducive for strengthening. There is no reason Irene can't be a Category 4 or higher at landfall if it remains over water that long.
Also, I really don't see the SE US escaping Irene with some minor scrapes. It's following the edge of the subtropical ridge and there are no signs it's gonna budge. It's not looking good.
Also, I really don't see the SE US escaping Irene with some minor scrapes. It's following the edge of the subtropical ridge and there are no signs it's gonna budge. It's not looking good.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
As the NHC notes: "DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY."
I've been watching each model run in regards to the big player,
the trough to the north of Irene at 120hr+. Each run shows more influence
on Irene. The 12Z GFS has chaser-favorable onshore hurricane force winds
over the Outer Banks of NC but is tending to keep the core offshore. This might
make for an interesting Outer Bank chase, but any deviation and it's a death
trap.
The other factor is poor strike zone chasing opportunities once you head
north of Wilmington, NC, e.g. Hurricane Isabel.
I never suggest flying into or out of coastal airports in potential strike
zones. Airports can suddenly shut down in advance of storms, flights can be
cancelled and the airport could be damaged making a return difficult. 100+ miles
inland is a better option.
I'm on hold right now, but have a Raleigh, NC starting point in place.
W.
I've been watching each model run in regards to the big player,
the trough to the north of Irene at 120hr+. Each run shows more influence
on Irene. The 12Z GFS has chaser-favorable onshore hurricane force winds
over the Outer Banks of NC but is tending to keep the core offshore. This might
make for an interesting Outer Bank chase, but any deviation and it's a death
trap.
The other factor is poor strike zone chasing opportunities once you head
north of Wilmington, NC, e.g. Hurricane Isabel.
I never suggest flying into or out of coastal airports in potential strike
zones. Airports can suddenly shut down in advance of storms, flights can be
cancelled and the airport could be damaged making a return difficult. 100+ miles
inland is a better option.
I'm on hold right now, but have a Raleigh, NC starting point in place.
W.
Mike Johnston
EF5
Yeah, you're right about the risks of flying into coastal airports, Warren. So, my earlier advice to Stuart about flying into Charleston was probably not well thought-out. Probably just flying into Atlanta and driving from there is the more practical course.
At any rate, I live about 3 miles from the coast here. So, if it stays on the current forecast track, we will have an evacuation decision to make later this week.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Atlanta might be easy to get to, but further north might be a better option if the current trends hold. There are a lot of cities along the eastern coast that are serviced by major airlines. I always like Raleigh because they have good rental car selections and it's far enough inland to avoid initial closings and damage. The projected path is going to be a nightmare for those along the eastern coasts from NC north, even if the main core stays offshore. The GFS now forecasts Irene to rake the coast. If TWC has not yet initiated panic, it's going to get nuts in 24-48 hours considering the potential population areas. My gut feeling is that Irene is going to turn further east -- but it's still a very long way out.
W.
W.
MClarkson
EF5
"Airports can suddenly shut down in advance of storms, flights can be
cancelled and the airport could be damaged making a return difficult. 100+ miles
inland is a better option."
Agreed. Keeping an eye on ATL, RDU, CLT for the moment... but with landfall possibilities between Miami and Boston this one could be real annoying to go after. Of the 4 models I trust most, GFDL is the left outlier still taking the storm towards Miami, with the HWRF in the Carolinas and the ECMWF/GFS on up the coast skirting the Outer Banks and Cape Cod.
cancelled and the airport could be damaged making a return difficult. 100+ miles
inland is a better option."
Agreed. Keeping an eye on ATL, RDU, CLT for the moment... but with landfall possibilities between Miami and Boston this one could be real annoying to go after. Of the 4 models I trust most, GFDL is the left outlier still taking the storm towards Miami, with the HWRF in the Carolinas and the ECMWF/GFS on up the coast skirting the Outer Banks and Cape Cod.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
Really tough call this one - I duly note that advise that previous posters have made in previous posts WRT to inland airports etc.
My issue is that I am located in the UK and this is somewhat compounded with the fact that I then have a UK documentary team with me – in other word we need to book flights on Tuesday and then travel on Wednesday.
My gut feeling (discounting the 12Z GFDL) is that Morehead City / Outer banks will be the eventual landfall so Charleston (Risky) or Raleigh may work as a target airport.
I should move to the USA – it would make chasing so much more easy!
My issue is that I am located in the UK and this is somewhat compounded with the fact that I then have a UK documentary team with me – in other word we need to book flights on Tuesday and then travel on Wednesday.
My gut feeling (discounting the 12Z GFDL) is that Morehead City / Outer banks will be the eventual landfall so Charleston (Risky) or Raleigh may work as a target airport.
I should move to the USA – it would make chasing so much more easy!
Mike Johnston
EF5
That's a pretty ambitious plan, Stuart. I would say if your target truly is the OBX, then Raleigh would provide you better access than Charleston. But, getting onto and traversing the OBX might be quite a challenge in its own right. It's bascially a narrow strip of sand. In some sections, you can literally see the sound out of your right eye and the ocean out of your left eye. There are quite a few inlets (formed by hurricanes over the centuries, btw) for which you must rely on either ferry service or bridges to traverse, and these may very well be closed in the event of a tropical storm. Even a modest nor'easter will cause overwash of the road.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
The 18Z ensembles are now turning Irene even more to the east.
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/re.../track_early/aal09_2011082218_track_early.png
Although it would be foolish to assume this early that it will be a fish storm, the trend is right on track with the the majority of reliable models. Even a close shave could really cause some serious problems for the east coast.
W.
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/re.../track_early/aal09_2011082218_track_early.png
Although it would be foolish to assume this early that it will be a fish storm, the trend is right on track with the the majority of reliable models. Even a close shave could really cause some serious problems for the east coast.
W.
Ari Brown
EF0
5 PM NHC forecast brings Irene ashore just east of Myrtle Beach, SC as a major hurricane (100 kt). Things still not looking nice for NC/SC.
Mike Smith
I'd like to add a word here. I wouldn't put a tremendous amount of faith in the 18Z models. Not only is there no rawinsonde data, there is relatively little aircraft data over the Atlantic.
The 00Z run this evening will not only have the benefit of fresh rawinsonde data, it will have the ACARS data from U.S. jumbo jets on their way to Europe, and it will have (for the first time with Irene) the data from the NOAA Gulfstream in addition to the regular hurricane hunter aircraft.
I believe we will see a tighter clustering of the models in the 00Z run.
My guess? The model consensus will swing west.
Mike
The 00Z run this evening will not only have the benefit of fresh rawinsonde data, it will have the ACARS data from U.S. jumbo jets on their way to Europe, and it will have (for the first time with Irene) the data from the NOAA Gulfstream in addition to the regular hurricane hunter aircraft.
I believe we will see a tighter clustering of the models in the 00Z run.
My guess? The model consensus will swing west.
Mike
rdale
EF5
Would your faith change if you saw all the rawinsonde data in the 18Z runs
?THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS REQUESTING SPECIAL 6-HOURLY UPPER
AIR RELEASES BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY FROM THE FOLLOWING STATIONS:
KEY WEST, MIAMI, TAMPA, JACKSONVILLE, TALLAHASSEE, SLIDELL,
JACKSON, BIRMINGHAM, PEACHTREE CITY, CHARLESTON, MOREHEAD CITY,
GREENSBORO, NASHVILLE, WILMINGTON, PITTSBURGH, BLACKSBURG,
STERLING AND WALLOPS ISLAND.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11082218_OBS/
