How much time do you guys spend studying surface charts?

[Andrew Clope]

I'm reading through Tims Vasquez' books and a few others and one common theme is the importance of doing your own surface analysis by hand. So, I've been trying this for a few months now, and sometimes do have a difficult time "seeing" boundaries.

How often do you guys do hand analysis? How important do you view this skill?

Are there any tricks to finding boundaries? I have just been looking for sharp wind directional changes along with temp/dew differences. Also, I'm noticing that the surface lows do not always match up well with the flow aloft, maybe this was a mistake of mine, but I always thought that it would be close to the center of the trough, but by studying the SFC obs and the upper level soundings and models, that doesn't appear to be the case.

Thanks!

 

[Warren Faidley]

One good thing about hand plotting your own surface maps every hour is that over time you observe small changes that may point you in the right direction. You may not see this just by glancing at a computer screen every hour. On the really risk big days I still hand plot surface maps and make notes on any road closures from the chase State(s) DOT site.

I also plot my own risk / target areas based on road availability and terrain. I make post-chase notes on the back of the maps so I can go back and see what happened.

I should credit Dave Hoadley, as he inspired me to draw the maps.

W.

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

While it is important to keep a close eye on surface maps, I haven't hand-drawn one since college. Drawing the maps helps you take more time to look at them, during which you may or may not pick up on additional details. While it is usually beneficial, instead of hand-drawing maps, I find that my time is better used looking at other current data (like satellite imagery and the SPC mesoanalysis site) and near term forecast data. I also use that extra time looking at road maps to update myself on potential routes (to and away from the target storm and additional routes to get to other storms if need be). The finding routes portion is especially critical for me since I live on the East Coast, and my experience in driving around the Plains is not nearly as high as those who live there.

 

[James Gustina]

It varies by event. Similar to Warren, the bigger the event, the more likely I am to make a few hand-drawn SFC maps. I haven't used one this season just due to the nature of most of these events but they can be very helpful when overlaid on a vissat image on big days where there are targets all up and down the dryline.

I usually have time for them in the morning since I know the road networks of the southern and central Plains really well, but I do also like to take a look at Google Earth to see what kind of terrain CI will occur in.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I'm sure it handicaps me, but I haven't hand-drawn a sfc chart in years. Fact is..... I can't. My car is too small to allow putting a printer in there.

Between the SPC's mesoanalysis, satellite imagery, and all the other tools that are readily available online I feel like I do well enough to satisfy myself, and that's about all that really matters to me. I'm well past the years of being despondent over missing individual events, even big ones.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'm sure it handicaps me, but I haven't hand-drawn a sfc chart in years. Fact is..... I can't. My car is too small to allow putting a printer in there.

Between the SPC's mesoanalysis, satellite imagery, and all the other tools that are readily available online I feel like I do well enough to satisfy myself, and that's about all that really matters to me. I'm well past the years of being despondent over missing individual events, even big ones.

No need to print new maps every hour.

Just make your own map scaled to an 8x10 sheet of paper with the station ID's and major highways included. Print 20-30 copies. I also made a clip board out of foam core and rubber bands to hold the sheets to avoid the typical plastic or wood clipboards that like to impale you in the even of an accident.

I just use the same map and note major adjustments in different colors as the day goes on. Sometimes it's quite obvious where the poop is going to hit the fan and there is not much need (or time) for detailing maps.

W.

 

[Bob Schafer]

No need to print new maps every hour.

Just make your own map scaled to an 8x10 sheet of paper with the station ID's and major highways included. Print 20-30 copies. I also made a clip board out of foam core and rubber bands to hold the sheets to avoid the typical plastic or wood clipboards that like to impale you in the even of an accident.

I just use the same map and note major adjustments in different colors as the day goes on. Sometimes it's quite obvious where the poop is going to hit the fan and there is not much need (or time) for detailing maps.

W.

Good, this is. One would almost think you've got some experience at this. [/sarcasm]

 

[Shane Adams]

I just look at the computer screen and "draw" the surface obs with my mind. I've never hand drawn my own because I'm lazy, and usually the sky/atmosphere itself will help you with the 11th hour subtleties should my "mind drawings" be 10-20 miles off point from reality.

 

[Rob H]

I've been printing off the forecasted surface features over time, and then updating that with a pencil throughout the day as conditions change. If you have a general idea of the synoptic setup and how things are likely to evolve over the day you're way better prepared for anything that happens. The time I spend really nailing the isotherms on a hand analysis could be better spent in looking at vis sat or projecting what the earl overnight MCS is actually doing to my warm front.

Hand analysis is only useful if you need to really nail a forecast and dedicate extra time to the details. Working for the SPC or chasing without data are two scenarios that come to mind.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I don't remember the last time I hand drew a map for analysis purposes for a chase, or if I have ever done it. In my experience, the kinds of things that are going to make a noticeable difference in the timing and/or location of initiation are pretty obvious to me just via inspection of raw observations. Once you've done some hand drawn analyses and studied the synoptic and mesoscale processes favoring severe weather, you get pretty quick at analyzing maps in your head. For those really subtle changes, they usually only manifest in a single ob or at just one point in time, so I'm left to wonder if it was a bad ob or generally meaningless noise in the data. I'm also usually busy driving out to the target until just before initiation. It's just something I don't have time for and don't think is important enough to spend any significant time on. With the changes in technology recently, doing a hand-drawn analysis is generally less useful anyway. Many computer software programs can do an objective analysis in a fraction of a second anyway.

 

[rdale]

With the changes in technology recently, doing a hand-drawn analysis is generally less useful anyway. Many computer software programs can do an objective analysis in a fraction of a second anyway.

Ugh... The point of a hand analysis isn't plotting lines, but giving the user a better perspective of the atmosphere.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Ugh... The point of a hand analysis isn't plotting lines, but giving the user a better perspective of the atmosphere.

I don't need to physically draw the lines to get a sense of the state of the atmosphere. It was a statement of my opinion.