Future of the season, part 4

[Brandon Lawson]

I didn't want to post a forecast thread just yet, but I'm getting very interested in the setup for next week. The GFS has a nice trough coming right through the heart of the plains and all parameters look really favorable for a significant severe weather event. In particularly, Wednesday is shaping up to be a doozy.

With a low pressure centered way up in North Dakota, southwest flow, and what appears to be some high dewpoints, I'm already very excited. Bring it on!!

 

[Dan Robinson]

Looks like the trough is going to happen. The WRF now shows it digging in. This could possibly be at least a four or five day event, Wednesday through at least Saturday.

 

[Dave Lewison]

Yes, but there's a monstrous CAP to deal with. 14-15C at 700mb over central NE all of Wednesday. There's also the insane speed of the system, digging over CA on Tues and then it's over eastern NE just ONE day later? I thought the GFS was out to lunch, but the past 3 runs have shown this. With a cap this stout, you need the good upper divergence overhead for a while to be able to erode it. I think this trough is moving too fast to be able to do that. I still have serious doubts about Wednesday... Rest of the week still looks interesting tho.

 

[Brian Stertz]

The upper divergence forecasts are suggestive that the area between Winner SD and Grand Island should be favored before sunset and points east and northeast at/after sunset. The major cap to weaker cap line looks like it will setup along a line from Grand Island to Columbus. Looks pretty tough for anything to go south of I-80 given the position of the M/U jetcore and temps well over 90 in most places.

Maybe it's time for some more classic Nerbaska farmer video eh? This time I hope to be on the porch for some serious atmospheric eye-candy.

 

[Scott Olson]

The upcoming event is only four days away, as such please direct any further analysis of this event into the FCST thread.

 

[Dave Lewison]

With all the focus on Wednesday, anyone care to venture a guess on the days following? The GFS is keeping the moisture and instability hanging around the KS/OK border, but on Thursday the surface winds look horribly veered out along the front. But there looks to be some potential for Fri/Sat, with some hint of a weak surface low backing the winds in the SC KS area, and then again in the central/northern plains on Mon/Tue as the next trough begins to eject out onto the plains.

I'm planning a spot-chase for the Wednesday setup, and will be chasing till Sunday. I wish I could chase BOTH this week's setup and next week's promises, but I have to pick one...and I'll pick the one that looks like it'll verify over one that's kinda wishy washy at the moment (over a week away).

 

[Dan Robinson]

Per the GFS, Friday and Saturday look interesting in NW OK and the Texas panhandle, with nice DL bulge, decent SW flow at 500mb, strong southerly low level jet and strong precip indications.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Please see the following for forecast discussions about Thurs and Fri:

[URL="http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=12757"]06/07/07 FCST: TX / OK / KS / MO / IA / IL / WI[/url]

6/8/07 FCST: TX / OK / MO / AR / ?

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

It looks to me like after this upcoming weeks storms we will calm down for a while before what looks to be a trough coming in by the end of the month. I may be wrong and feel free to correct me.

 

[matt patterson]

Last nights GFS showed a pretty strong storm system/trough coming into the west by day 7. I am encouraged about the future of this system as there seems to be no blocking death ridge sitting over the plains. According to climatology, this powerful of a storm system would at this time of year would probably move across the northern plains, but it is hard to say with all the crazy systems we have seen this year...
Will be fun to watch how this plays out..