Forecasting Denver area Tornadoes

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Mar 30, 2008
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Norman, OK
So today is the second day of tornadoes near Denver, and after looking at observed soundings from not far away, I can't understand exactly why these 2 profiles produced tornadoes less than 50km away, especially this mornings. Does meteorology just go out the window in Colorado?

I'd seriously like to understand this a bit more. Colorado forecasting seems more like a dart throw and hitting the lottery than anything else.

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I can't answer you with meteorology....so I'll answer you with Climatology!

Check out the tornado environment browser here:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/envbrowser/
Median STP for a tornado in Denver Area for RM supercell: 0.3...ML Cape 1000ish...Shear 42kts...0-3 Helicity...100!!! ML LCL...1400!
My point is...based on these soundings...the tornadoes were median (normal) tornadoes for this area...and I would have expected them based on these soundings and climatology. There is a reason why that area is studied so much for tornadoes, because they take so much less to form (from a weather requirement view) than the rest of the world.

My views on why this occurs are similar to others familiar with the Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone. The point of vorticity, with respect to tornadoes, is that it makes it easier for the tornadoes to form. In the plains we look for DPVA entering the region when we expect an outbreak, because it takes normal conditions, and makes it super easy for a supercell to drop a tor, and it also encourages supercells when shear isn't great. But with the DCVZ...there is always a huge boost in vorticity...so even sub-optimal or even negligible conditions can produce tornadoes. They may not have the cape or helicity for sig tors....but they are entertaining.
 
1) Consider the effects of elevation on thermodynamics I mentioned on a FB post of another user today.

2) While that sounding may be located fairly close to where tornadoes occurred, that doesn't necessarily mean that sounding is representative of the inflow region of said tornadic storms. Given the general paucity of surface and upper air observations over eastern Colorado, we just don't know what the actual environmental profile was like near those storms. This fact isn't exactly unique to Colorado, as states like Kansas and Nebraska (especially Kansas) have some pretty wide spacings between surface stations, too. However, the lack of surface stations in Colorado makes the problem worse than it would be in Kansas or Nebraska because...

3) Colorado has some unique topography among the states in tornado alley.
a) First of all is the sheer elevation (see point #1).
b) On the mesoscale, eastern Colorado really isn't flat, even though it may appear to be to an individual standing in a single spot looking in 360 degrees around them. Although, "flatness" is kind of relative. Imagine you are standing on a plane tilted with respect to the gravitational "horizontal" of Earth. If the plane extends forever and you have no external markers (like a fixed point of light, for example) for reference, you may not be able to tell you're on a sloped surface. If you've ever driven across eastern Colorado, say on I-70 or I-76, can you truly say you have sensed the elevation change (except for small areas with sharper hills)? Try this: use a GPS to watch your elevation while driving along a stretch of road that appears to be flat. I bet you'll find a lot of sections where your elevation is actually steadily changing during such a stretch. So, in reality (and I think most chasers are aware of this), eastern Colorado is sloped. What this means is any surface wind that has a component along a vector pointing up or down the slope has a vertical component. So even a more-or-less horizontal pressure gradient near the surface can generate lift via upslope flow, as I'm sure you already know. But it's important to remember that this upslope flow is LIFT, and it can be stronger than synoptic scale lift. I recently heard a talk where it was mentioned that the plains region of the central US slopes at an average angle of about 0.2°, although that's a longitudinal average. In Colorado it's likely a little higher. Let's assume it's 0.3°. A 10 m/s wind along the gradient vector of topography (i.e., going directly upslope at the steepest angle) will produce a vertical wind of 5.2 cm/s, which is moderate to strong synoptic scale lift. Get a little stronger wind or a slightly steeper slope (it would have to be over a smaller area, say the size of a mountain), and a horizontal surface wind could generate lift of greater than 10 cm/s. That'll really help erode caps and get storms going.
c) All of the above is great for getting storms to fire, but it says little about tornadoes. Eastern Colorado's topography includes some unique smaller scale elements including the Palmer Divide and DCVZ, but also some really small scale elements that may aid in providing for horizontal vorticity for tornadoes. For example, just by looking at Google Maps terrain, I see many topographical features, like a cliff line with depths of a few hundred feet running from southwest of Byars SSWwd towards southeast of Elbert. Maybe 5-10 miles NNW of Limon there's an area with many closely spaced ridges and valleys up to 200 ft tall/deep. There are other features that contain smaller elevation changes, like in the Arkansas River valley. Many of those smaller features probably aren't big enough to have any long-term impact on tornado formation in an existing storm, much like I don't think the Canadian River valley west of Norman and Moore has a strong impact on tornado production there. However, like the Texas Caprock region, if you can get air flowing into or off the larger cliffs rapidly, you may be able to generate sufficient horizontal vorticity simply due to terrain. Get a storm to ingest that and you'll get a tornado even if synoptic scale 0-1 km shear isn't all that great.

When it comes down to it, it's probably a combination of all these factors. It's also probably a perspective issue. You may see tornadoes in Colorado as being mysterious, but an experienced chaser who has lived or chased a lot in Colorado may have a deeper and more complex understanding that may cause tornadoes to be less mysterious to them. For example, many Normanites tend to joke about a "Norman bubble" where precipitating events tend to always "miss" or "go around" Norman, leaving them high and dry. This was especially prevalent during the big recent drought. But look at the past month - Norman had one of the highest precip totals statewide and had several tornadoes nearby. Testimonials don't always imply a general rule in a matter of science. That's a posteriori reasoning.
 
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The tornado on Thursday near Simla had one unique factor that made all the difference IMO. For awhile it was a normal thunderstorm just meandering around out by Franktown/Elizabeth. Earlier in the day an outflow boundary existed in KS from an earlier MCS and the western-most segments of it drifted west towards the Palmer Divide. It was very interesting to watch it unfold on the Hi Res Satellite loops and radar. As quick as that supercell latched onto the composite/outflow boundary it instantly went nuts and started rotating as evidenced by the attached RS video.



Here's the satellite image where you can see the storm ingesting the outflow boundary as it moves in from the SE side.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/...es=50&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=900&aniheight=550

I know this doesn't *really* answer your question Ben, but I believe if it wasn't for that composite/outflow boundary, the Simla storm wouldn't have been the prolific tornado producer that it was. The DCVZ was cranking that day as well, which aids in the process significantly. Awhile back I searched out and read a couple of studies by Al Pietrycha and it went into great detail about the processes at play in the DCVZ. Very interesting stuff.
 
The tornado on Thursday near Simla had one unique factor that made all the difference IMO. For awhile it was a normal thunderstorm just meandering around out by Franktown/Elizabeth. Earlier in the day an outflow boundary existed in KS from an earlier MCS and the western-most segments of it drifted west towards the Palmer Divide. It was very interesting to watch it unfold on the Hi Res Satellite loops and radar. As quick as that supercell latched onto the composite/outflow boundary it instantly went nuts and started rotating as evidenced by the attached RS video.

I had noticed that OFB on visible satellite as well. I thought about mentioning it in my post, but I'm not sure if that storm ever truly ingested it. It looked to me both on satellite and on radar that it stayed north/northeast of the OFB. Perhaps it did in fact ingest it (which would explain the crazy tornadic activity), but it just wasn't apparent on satellite or radar. As we all know, OFBs can appear to be invisible.
 
Yeah it just looks to me like the updraft (assumed to be directly under the overshooting top) never fully collides with where the OFB appears to be.

Maybe it's just me being too hard on the analysis. IDK.
 
Does meteorology just go out the window in Colorado?

I'd seriously like to understand this a bit more. Colorado forecasting seems more like a dart throw and hitting the lottery than anything else.

I think it certainly does go out the window. Look at May 10th. Colorado had 4 different seasons of weather in a 24 hour period. In Colorado Springs there was torrential rain, flooding and hail. From Denver to Monument there was white out blizzard conditions. In Eads, there was tornadoes and supercell thunderstorms.

Someone recommended a book for me that I snagged off amazon yesterday for a few bucks. Considering the terrain, the elevation, the weather patterns, upslope and the Palmer Divide...Colorado is one wacky weather state.

give this a look.
http://www.amazon.com/Colorado-Weather-Almanac-Mike-Nelson/dp/1555664016
 
Jeff's post makes a lot of sense. I've actually watched the GPS increase in altitude as you drive west plenty of times, whether it be to the TX PH or west through KS into CO. I definitely can buy the OFB theory too for the Simla storm, which would explain why the storm was such a prolific tornado producer.

When I look back upon previous events, it seems like the 5/21/2014 had a more favorable environment and while it did produce a brief tornado by DIA, it didn't produce anything like the Simla storm did. The OFB seems like it may be perhaps the difference, although lower level moisture seemed to be a little lower that day too, but at that altitude it doesn't seem to matter so much and 50F is enough.

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Keep in mind, though that it's not like a pool table lifted up on one end. Here are a couple of trivial facts that may surprise you:

Limon has an elevation over 5K feet, so there is virtually no upslope between Limon and Denver, a distance of about 80 miles.
Lamar sits at an almost identical elevation to Amarillo. (The lowest point in Colorado is, I think, where the Arkansas River flows into Kansas near Holly.)
 
At the time we were discussing this I had a publication in the back of my mind about the 5/22/08 Windsor, CO, tornado, but I couldn't find it that day. I just ran across it now and thought I'd share it with everyone interested in high plains events. Here's the link where it can be found.
 
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