Alexandre Aguiar
ENSO Monitoring - Pacific already in La Niña mode
Dear Friends
Here is the latest ENSO Diganostic Discussion from NOAA from January 11 (so 20 day ago to be fair):
Synopsis: El Niño conditions are likely to continue through March-May 2007.
Here is the Australian BOM bulletin released today (January 31):
If some thresholds for El Niño regions are not met at this time the real time condition of the Pacific is not of a warm phase. If the condition RIGHT NOW do not meet the standards of an El Niño and the phase is not cool, what you would call it ? We call a trend towards neutrality. Here are the anomalies for 01/28:
Nino 1: +0.28C
Nino 2: +0.26C
Nino 3: +0.64C
Nino 3.4: +0.43C
Nino 4: +0.57C
The cooling is ocurring very rapidly. Very soon, maybe still in February, Niño 1+2 will already be in the negative territory. A La Niña in the next moths is a possibility that increases by the day. Check the subsurface cold waters rising in the Pacific:
The POAMA model two months prior to the El Niño declaration by NOAA in 2006 the POAMA model was not indicating a high percentage of a warm phase. Two weeks ago the model was indicating a July with near 0.5 and an August of 0.6. Now it is negative or near zero all over the first half of the year. The model appears to be behind the speed of the cooling underway and it is running to catch it. Note the first 15 runs (red line) and the trend in the last 15 runs (blue lines):
See also NOAA's CFS trend to Niño 1+2 (major player of weather in South America) as the model inticates it will be plunged in very negative territory by March and April.
Or you can check the FSU climate model:
I strongly believe the 2006/2007 El Niño event is basically dead and the question now is how fast a La Niña will start to be discussed in the ENSO climate bulletins by NOAA and the BOM.
We are seriously considering that the fall period (March to June) in South America southernmost areas (Southern Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile) may figure among the coldest in many years due to the influence of the very negative signal in the Nino 1+2 region indicated by CFS. The NOAA's CFS T2M maps corroborates the idea of an unusual cold autumn in this part of the globe.
It will be very interesting to see the next update from Dr. William Gray considering the shorter El Niño and the faster cooling of the Pacific. We would do not rule out a rise in the number of forecasted storms in the tropical season based on the real time data we see and the trend shown by the models.
Alexandre
Dear Friends
Here is the latest ENSO Diganostic Discussion from NOAA from January 11 (so 20 day ago to be fair):
Synopsis: El Niño conditions are likely to continue through March-May 2007.
Here is the Australian BOM bulletin released today (January 31):
- Equatorial Pacific SSTs have cooled and are close to or below El Niño thresholds.
[*]Negative subsurface anomalies have strengthened and spread further east along the thermocline and have nearly reached the surface in the eastern Pacific.
[*]The SOI has a current (29th January) 30-day value of −9.
[*]Trade Winds have generally been somewhat stronger than average apart from a weakening in the central-west Pacific in the middle of the month.
[*]Cloudiness near the date-line has recently been above average.
[*]Most computer models predict the decay of El Niño conditions in the first half of 2007.
If some thresholds for El Niño regions are not met at this time the real time condition of the Pacific is not of a warm phase. If the condition RIGHT NOW do not meet the standards of an El Niño and the phase is not cool, what you would call it ? We call a trend towards neutrality. Here are the anomalies for 01/28:
Nino 1: +0.28C
Nino 2: +0.26C
Nino 3: +0.64C
Nino 3.4: +0.43C
Nino 4: +0.57C
The cooling is ocurring very rapidly. Very soon, maybe still in February, Niño 1+2 will already be in the negative territory. A La Niña in the next moths is a possibility that increases by the day. Check the subsurface cold waters rising in the Pacific:
![wkxzteq_anm.gif](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fanim%2Fwkxzteq_anm.gif&hash=3f52a3ee4f4ad8922aae3b4b43753124)
The POAMA model two months prior to the El Niño declaration by NOAA in 2006 the POAMA model was not indicating a high percentage of a warm phase. Two weeks ago the model was indicating a July with near 0.5 and an August of 0.6. Now it is negative or near zero all over the first half of the year. The model appears to be behind the speed of the cooling underway and it is running to catch it. Note the first 15 runs (red line) and the trend in the last 15 runs (blue lines):
![poama3101om3.jpg](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fimg149.imageshack.us%2Fimg149%2F813%2Fpoama3101om3.jpg&hash=965c9101d6d91a89d43584e3a9857f3d)
See also NOAA's CFS trend to Niño 1+2 (major player of weather in South America) as the model inticates it will be plunged in very negative territory by March and April.
![cfs3101mn7.jpg](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Fimg149.imageshack.us%2Fimg149%2F9581%2Fcfs3101mn7.jpg&hash=d2d15d0b6810e8f748d128f6742ef950)
Or you can check the FSU climate model:
![elnino1.gif](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2Focean.fsu.edu%2Ffaculty%2Fclarke%2Fphotos%2Felnino1.gif&hash=65e4341378407e809fb780fbe66496c5)
I strongly believe the 2006/2007 El Niño event is basically dead and the question now is how fast a La Niña will start to be discussed in the ENSO climate bulletins by NOAA and the BOM.
We are seriously considering that the fall period (March to June) in South America southernmost areas (Southern Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile) may figure among the coldest in many years due to the influence of the very negative signal in the Nino 1+2 region indicated by CFS. The NOAA's CFS T2M maps corroborates the idea of an unusual cold autumn in this part of the globe.
It will be very interesting to see the next update from Dr. William Gray considering the shorter El Niño and the faster cooling of the Pacific. We would do not rule out a rise in the number of forecasted storms in the tropical season based on the real time data we see and the trend shown by the models.
Alexandre
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