Earth on the Brink of a new Ice Age.

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Quintin Erdman

I found this article today, thought it was interesting. I am wondering what others think of the topic. While I don't think an Ice Age is imminent, I do agree with many of the points made about Global Warming.

From Pravda by Gregory F. Fegel
http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/106922-earth_ice_age-0

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.

Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.

Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the earth’s orbit, which changes over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the earth’s ‘wobble’, which gradually rotates the direction of the earth’s axis over a period of 26,000 years. According to the Milankovich theory of Ice Age causation, these three astronomical cycles, each of which effects the amount of solar radiation which reaches the earth, act together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age maximums and warm interglacials.

Elements of the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were first presented by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842, it was developed further by the English prodigy Joseph Croll in 1875, and the theory was established in its present form by the Czech mathematician Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and 30s. In 1976 the prestigious journal “Science†published a landmark paper by John Imbrie, James Hays, and Nicholas Shackleton entitled “Variations in the Earth's orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages,†which described the correlation which the trio of scientist/authors had found between the climate data obtained from ocean sediment cores and the patterns of the astronomical Milankovich cycles. Since the late 1970s, the Milankovich theory has remained the predominant theory to account for Ice Age causation among climate scientists, and hence the Milankovich theory is always described in textbooks of climatology and in encyclopaedia articles about the Ice Ages.

In their 1976 paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their own climate forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and the Milankovich cycles, "… must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends - and not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate."

During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other scientists began promoting the theory that ‘greenhouse gasses’ such as carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of ‘anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW) has gradually become accepted as fact by most of the academic establishment, and their acceptance of AGW has inspired a global movement to encourage governments to make pivotal changes to prevent the worsening of AGW.

The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory is the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph which was presented by Al Gore in his 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth.†The ‘hockey stick’ graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began during the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However, this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures.

The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence from the past million years -- evidence which is essential for a true understanding of climatology. The data from paleoclimatology provides us with an alternative and more credible explanation for the recent global temperature spike, based on the natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and interglacials.

In 1999 the British journal “Nature†published the results of data derived from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia ’s Vostok station in Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data includes a record of global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and airborne particulates starting from 420,000 years ago and continuing through history up to our present time.

The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age maximums and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic pattern, the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse. In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.

The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes in the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2 levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should already be eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the world’s oceans.

The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at approximately the same levels which they are at today.

About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today. Today we are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial, and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW.

The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.
 
Guess I better buy a big fuzzy parka and some mittens.

Interesting read considering all the global warming hoopla. Between Yellowstones super volcano erupting, 12/21/12, hypercanes and the aliens landing, I guess we're doomed.
 
Well the record shows this to be false
About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1c/Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png
They use the pre-Industrial Revolution averages as representative of "today". In fact both CO2 and temperature are spiking recently. The whole concern is that anthropogenic forcing is greatly exceeding the natural cycle. And the whole argument about temperature rise preceding CO2 in the natural cycle -- fizzy water, etc. -- is actually quite discouraging if true. It means that the current temperature rises will tend to cause more CO2 emissions from natural sources than is perhaps predicted.
 
Waiting for the post that includes the links to the 34 previous versions of this thread...
 
Waiting for the post that includes the links to the 34 previous versions of this thread...

No sh%$

Every year its either too hot and we are doomed by global warming and the ice caps melt in the next year or its too cold and we enter a life killing ice age and live like eskimos in Florida. Both sided with data to back up their theory...blah blah blah...:rolleyes:

When I see ocean waves in the panhandle or a glacier in Kansas I will worry. Until then its a natural cycle of averages...:cool:
 
global warming is caused by Algore flying around on his jet to warm people about it.
The coming ice age is caused by worrying about global warming.

fact is what i have noticed since I was a kid 45 years ago, it that the warmth of summer seems to be lasting and extending at times clear into October, and summers warmth is later in showing like till mid June.

I have been in Lower Ontario in July and it was snowing. Here in Arizona there USED to be a fall and spring--short little seasons inbetween the hot summer and the cold winter--now it goes from 114 to 104 then in a week or two it is in the 80;s then the 60;s...smae for summer pretty cool thill mid march then it hits 98 to 100 and pretty much thats it.

I am somewhat more into earth axis tilting rather than human caused problems--OUTSIDE of Jet contrails that spread out into an upper level overcast--I do not seem to remember this sort of crap till the early 90's.
 
--OUTSIDE of Jet contrails that spread out into an upper level overcast--I do not seem to remember this sort of crap till the early 90's.

Dont you know that is the US and Soviet governments trying to control the weather for military pruposes as some have claimed :rolleyes:

Soon they will be able to generate floods to destroy whole countries and cause droughts to starve entire nations.
 
I will put a new spin on this discussion here. Back in the 1970's a scientist from MI named Hammiker proposed that we are heading for an ice age, even if it first gets warmer.
Looking at the same CO2/climate records earlier discussed, he stated that there is a natural "tipping point" of somewhere around 300ppm CO2 (if I remember correctly), beyond which the earth automatically shifted into a 10-20 year transition zone followed by a sudden onset of ice age climate conditions.
He stated that we have already exceeded the CO2 tipping point, due to our atmospheric emissions, and that we need to do something about this ASAP in order to prevent or at least by greatly delay ice age climate conditions.
One of the major issues that he proposed was the lessened abilities for vegetation to uptake CO2 due to poor soil conditions (mineral depletion)that rendored vegetation less resistant to droughts and insect infestation, thereby creating more unhealthy vegetation as well as increased vegatation die-offs, & wildfires (both contributing to CO2 increase).
He stated that the ice ages served to decrease CO2 in two ways: 1. the uptake of CO2 in locked ice; 2. grinding of rocks by glaciers remineralizing the soil, thus making a healthier base for vegetation.
He proposed a radical idea that we need to distribute mineral dust from ground rocks in forests across the world, like a military campaign.

The scary part of this theory is, and I have read articles by other scientists since, that there is a very brief transition period after which the earth tips into an ice age, as per ice core samples. And that the tip has been shown to be sudden - less than one decade.

The theory that global climate change, again made much more severe by human fossil fuel emissions, may alter the ocean currents and shut down the gulf current supports the above theory.
 
Dont you know that is the US and Soviet governments trying to control the weather for military pruposes as some have claimed :rolleyes:

Soon they will be able to generate floods to destroy whole countries and cause droughts to starve entire nations.


Yes, I have read the pro and con of this. I have seen quite a few oddball contrails, circles turns very tight, criss crossing on a clear day till it became overcast, etc. I do not recall this sort of thing till the 90's.

I realize there are papers that admit to weather modification, I also wonder it all the jet traffic over the years has changed the upper levels to now retain moisture in a different way, but I lean towards the GOV screwing around.

Hell I live in AZ, on the side of a hill. According to everyone including the local county engineer there has NEVER been a flood where I am at--yet 2 years ago EMA did some aerial surveys, drew some lines on a map-and I am now in a CLASS A flood zone--I feel they have plans.
 
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