Drought

[Aaron Kennedy]

Much of the moisture transport comes from the gulf in association with lee cyclogenesis/the LLJ so I wouldn't be too worried (although soil moisture certainly helps!). I recall the dryline staying pretty far west much of the past year... so if conditions are drier, it is possible the dryline will mix farther east (to perhaps the I35 corridor).

Where is Geukes at? We need some drought/ following season statistics pronto!

Aaron

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Mike Mike the stats man!

If I recall correctly, the drought out west was pretty bad over the winter and into the spring of 2003. Interestingly enough, west Texas had an almost non-existant tornado season that year, with much of the action along and east of I35. It does make a bit of sense that if the soil is VERY dry to the west, the dryline would likely mix eastward a bit easier/faster. That said, I didn't think soil moisture really affect much beyond the very near-surface layer, which I doubt would affect dryline propagation too much. Not sure though...