CHASE CASE 6

[Randall Cooper]

Dang! Im gonna have to call it quits. I thought I recognized the watch, so I double checked and sure enough! I know the date.

 

[Matt Sellers]

The initiating storm northwest of Denison at 18z appears to have crapped... so at 19z I'm heading back into Denison to check on new convection near the town.

The isolated cell in Atchison Co., MO (if it maintains itself)... along with storms to its west... might be worth an intercept attempt as they move into southwest IA if the west-central IA activity doesn't pan out.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Checking out the cell by Ringsted, IA. There's an isolated tower rising to my east within easy grabbing distance over by Bancroft, and beyond that, a lone wolf on the MN border by Rake, IA--a fair skip, but maybe not out of the question.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I could possible catch the cell by Topeka since the storm is moving at a speed of 25 MPH and I am just south of it but I could also hit the storms on the tail end of the line in the area that seems better for tornadoes. I am going south to the tail end of the line of storms. That storm by Topeka has what looks like a hook (maybe tornado damage?) but I will take my chances and drive south checking out the tail end storms.

Edit: If those storms on the tail end of the line do not look promising soon I will wait for new storms to develop and hope I do not bust.

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

Despite the fact my tail-end charlie never materialized, its apparent from the latest outlooks that I need to get back in position for stuff firing later in the afternoon. I'm heading to Woodward, OK to wait... ETA 2 hours and 45 minutes (2145Z).

 

[JHardy]

Well it looks like I guessed right on going to Topeka Ks. I am cruising with the cell that is located in Riley County Ks.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

19z: Seeing a cell going up near Gage, OK. Headed that way right now. will probably stay close to the panhandles from there.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Dropped down to Clarinda, IA to catch the northernmost cell coming out of ne KS.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Just a reminder to those who are participating in the case. Some have PM'd me explaining how easy it is to cheat on these cases, by google searching MD's, Watches, Warnings, and who knows what else. I can tell you I am not here to enforce cheating. I think we are all adults and use the honor system on these cases. I am sure any given tid bit of data could be searched down to find the date. I won't be changing my techniques on these cases. I want to use as much data as I can to simulate the actual event. We all use SPC outlooks when we chase, as well as MD's, Watches, and other tools. My advice would be to try and resist the urge to figure out the date if you can. This particular date isn't a well known date, but I do know some of you may have chased it. If you so desire to research to find the date I won't stop you from doing so because I have my hands full with the case. In real life situations we don't score a tornado everytime we go out to chase, so I would assume it would be the same in the cases. So, if you are out of position and decide to keyword data instead of swallowing pride so be it, the chase case police isn't going to ticket you for doing so. Lets use the honor system, have fun, and try to keep our abilities fresh for the coming season.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am now in Canadian, TX and will hang out there until the next update. Looking over 18z data I don't see a dryline developing at all as winds ar backed into eastern NM. I am definately a dryline junkie.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

That cell all alone to my north will be the best bet. Gotta say I made a mistake moving south. Should have stayed with my gut. I'm going to haul it up to Topeka and try to get there before that cell does. I think it'll have slightly better potential for tornado producing than the cells in the squall line!

Agree, and I hope nothing else develops until I get off the Turnpike. And I hope rush hour in TOP is done by the time I get there.

 

[Jake Wallentine]

Played around with that svr tstorm for awhile after hanging in Kingman...but now i'm going to go with my gut and let those cells go. Going to head SW for what looks to be a storm going up around Arnett,Ok ...get down to at least Freedom, Ok for now.

 

[Dean Baron]

A little late on updating, but here we go. Currently looking at the storm to my north while sitting in Atlantic, IA. Probably gonna intercept it, but will keep an eye on any developing Cu to the south. Should have a pretty easy intercept of the storm about a county to the north. Heading towards Hamlin, IA.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Storms are firing all along the cold front; I'm seeing a very nice dew of 68F in SW Ia; it looks like a nice sup is getting isolated in NE Ks. I'm drifting toward Sidney,Ia trying to intercept the storms coming from the south west.

 

[Matt Gingery]

20Z UPDATE​

SURFACE ANALYSIS

MIDWEST: http://i46.tinypic.com/34raema.gif

N PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/2mmyg06.gif

S PLAINS: http://i50.tinypic.com/2pobnkp.gif

VISIBLE SATELLITE

MIDWEST: http://i45.tinypic.com/15ousep.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i50.tinypic.com/j0uplh.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i45.tinypic.com/2la5xf8.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i49.tinypic.com/23r4cwl.gif

N PLAINS: http://i48.tinypic.com/2zgc238.gif

S PLAINS: http://i48.tinypic.com/2s8k369.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION​

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PNHDLS...EXTREME WRN OK...SWRN KS...NERN NM
AND EXTREME SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD WAS ACCOMPANYING A WWD SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SWRN KS...THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK. 18Z
AMA/DDC SOUNDINGS WERE STILL CAPPED...BUT STRONG HEATING...UPSLOPE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
CAPROCK/RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WERE STILL
UPSTREAM OVER NRN NM/SCNTRL CO...BUT WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP THE
RETURNING MOISTURE LATER THIS AFTN. UNTIL THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED
POSITIVES MAY ALONE BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD STORM
INITIATION ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN TX PNHDL AND EXTREME WRN OK...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE OVER ALL OF
THE PNHDLS...SERN CO...NERN NM AND SWRN KS.

GENTLY BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR
VALUES THROUGH THE AFTN. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASING
SHEAR WILL BE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. THREATS FOR
ISOLD STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SWRN KS SWD INTO PARTS
OF THE CNTRL/ERN TX/OK PNHDLS WHERE MID-60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
SURGE NWD ALONG/E OF THE CAPROCK AND NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY INTO
SWRN KS.

WAYFARING: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60663