CHASE CASE 6

Initiation just to my immediate west/northwest. Heading north from Denison on IA-39 to investigate, while looking over my left shoulder for development to the SW.
 
I am moving west to meet the oncoming line of storms. I will try to pick the best looking storm and follow it east. Heading out from Witchita.
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION​

2u4mrds.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NCNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME
NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE


WEAK FRONT THAT HAS SETTLED SEWD HAS ESSENTIALLY STALLED FROM NEAR
KOMA SWWD THROUGH PRATT KS THEN SWWD INTO EXTREME NWRN OK AND THE
CNTRL TX PNHDL. TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE KS
PORTION OF THIS FRONT AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND NEWD INTO ERN NEB LATER
AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME NWRN OK THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS REGION
RESIDES BENEATH ENTRANCE REGION OF 60-70 KT H5 JET MOVING INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF THE SWLY LLJ. GRADUAL HEATING AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITH TIME
THROUGH THE AFTN. THOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL...PARTICULARLY THROUGH MID-AFTN FROM NRN KS NWD...SPEED
SHEAR WAS MODEST AND ISOLD CELLS MAY ROTATE GIVING LARGE
HAIL/POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK SHOULD DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER SWRN KS
INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS REGIONS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE AS A RAPID
RECOVERY TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN ROCKIES IMPULSE. A
SEPARATE DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW LATER HIGHLIGHTING THIS REGION AS
NEW UPR AIR DATA ARRIVES.
 
Must have dozed off, because I missed the 15Z run. Now it looks like a cell has popped directly overhead here at Storm Lake. I'll track with it for a bit, see what happens. Other cells just to the northeast, more looking to fire along the CF angling off SW, so I'll adjust as I need to. I really don't have high expectations and wish I'd targeted Kansas, but it's a risk I took and I'll work with what I've got.
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION​

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


AREAS AFFECTED...WRN...NRN/CENTRAL IA...SERN/SCENTRAL MN AND
SWRN/WCENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

SCT TO NMRS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR OMA NEWD TO JUST WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A MCV OVER NERN IA WHILE MOVING INTO WCENTRAL/SWRN WI.
TSTMS IN BOTH AREAS MAY STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY THAT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AREAS OF MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL/NCENTRAL IA.
THIS AREA OF CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO
SCENTRAL/SERN MN. WITH HEATING AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION...
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL IA INTO
SCENTRAL MN. GIVEN MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KTS AT SLATER IA
AND WOOD LAKE MN/...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SVR THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST...VISIBLE SAT
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN MVC OVER NCENTRAL IA. TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS MVC OVER NERN IA AND WCENTRAL WI /POSSIBLY
AIDED BY A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET/. GIVEN THE RECENT SPEED OF THESE
CELLS...ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NOT SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT
HEATING MAY OCCUR OVER WRN WI TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING
SURFACE BASED WITHIN A FEW HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DMGG WINDS/SVR HAIL GIVEN SIMILAR MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE
IN THIS AREA.
 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED​

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST IOWA
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 30 MILES EAST OF SHENANDOAH
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE .

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING FROM WEST
OF ICT TO SOUTH OF OMA. DESPITE RATHER WEAK FORCING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO.
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SOUTHWEST IA AND NORTHWEST MO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
 
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK POST COMING SOON. SUPPLEMENTAL UPDATES AS WELL AS THE 21Z AND 23Z FULL UPDATES WILL BE POSTED TOMORROW STARTING IN THE A.M.

STAND BY FOR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..

EDIT: I WILL GO AHEAD AND THROW IN A 19Z SATELLITE/RADAR UPDATE TONIGHT


-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UNTIL 1930Z FOR KINGMAN COUNTY KANSAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TOPEKA KS. IN KINGMAN COUNTY. BASEBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED ALONG WITH UNKNOWN WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS CELL IS MOVING ENE AT 25MPH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. THOSE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

-WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN ROLLING IN WITH CELLS IN KANSAS, IOWA AND MINNESOTA.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Woke back up in Kingsdown KS, will stay here twiddle my thumbs, pick an occasional burger, and refresh the same data a million more times(typical procedure when arriving far too early).
 
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK​

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN KS...NW OK
AND THE TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE SRN
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM NEAR TOPEKA KS EXTENDING SWWD TO NEAR GAGE OK.
A CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY BECOME UNIFORM OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO INITIATE IN THE TX
PANHANDLE AND IN WRN OK AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND
SHEAR PROFILES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM
NRN NM EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SE CO AND WRN KS. THIS BAND OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT
RANGE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS SHOWN ON REGIONAL PROFILERS.
THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE INITIATION WILL BE LATER AND STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...NW OK AND SW
KS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN KS. OTHERWISE...A
MULTICELL THREAT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS CNTRL KS...NE KS AND SW IA WHERE AN LINEAR MCS IS DEVELOPING
ATTM. FRONTAL FORCING AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC
ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LINEAR MCS. LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS IN THE LINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WRN ND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ACROSS WRN MN AND WRN IA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN IA...SERN MN AND NW WI. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AN A REGION OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FOR THIS REASON...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
WITH THE EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW LOCATED OVER CNTRL MN AND
NW IA. AS A RESULT...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE PRESENT
MAINLY FROM THE FRONT NWWD. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT ESPECIALLY IN THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

19Z VISIBLE SATELLITE

MIDWEST: http://i50.tinypic.com/v6oit1.jpg

N PLAINS: http://i50.tinypic.com/2eba35z.jpg

S PLAINS: http://i47.tinypic.com/2cxhlav.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE

MIDWEST: http://i46.tinypic.com/ejuct0.gif

N PLAINS: http://i50.tinypic.com/no8ymp.gif

S PLAINS: http://i49.tinypic.com/inb9xy.gif

WAYFARING MAP: http://www.wayfaring.com/maps/show/60663
 
That cell all alone to my north will be the best bet. Gotta say I made a mistake moving south. Should have stayed with my gut. I'm going to haul it up to Topeka and try to get there before that cell does. I think it'll have slightly better potential for tornado producing than the cells in the squall line!
 
Looks like I will have to go south from Great Bend...am approaching I-70 and with time NOT on my side...I will have to get down to the Alva-Pratt area quick and maybe get some evening/night chasing in. TX Panhandle too far out of reach. Certainly is a bunch of stronger worded mentions of TOR potential on the SPC update.
 
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