Chase Case #15

[Charles Kuster]

I am going to move to Great Bend, Kansas and wait for the 18Z update.

 

[Matt Gingery]

After the 15z data, I don't see a whole lot of changes. I do notice the winds have straightened out ahead of the developing low pressure, and are backed real nicely across the state of Kansas. I think this will be a wide spread event. I am heading north and then to the west on Kansas HWY 36 to Smith Center Ks. Radar imagery has clued me in on where the initial boundary is, and I am going to set up about 75 miles to the backside of this morning convection. These should be easterly moving cells, and hopefully I can catch a nice super cell that will dig SE. Until further notice I will be in Smith Center Ks. I may head south on 281 towards Russel if need be, or wherever the situation depicts. HWY 36 is a good path, and I am familiar with the route.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Really nice backed winds from the TX panhandle through OK and KS, and the profilers are showing really good low level directional shear over OK and KS. Also some moisture advection and WAA at my location in Pampa. My only concern right now is that I'll be under the right exit region of the upper level jet streak, so initiation may be a problem. I'll wait until the 18Z update and see if I decide to move or not. If anything, it'll be northward or north-northeastward.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Still like my target of Wichita Falls, actually I think I may need to setup further west as the dryline is still near the TX/NM border, but we will continue south on I35 to Wichita Falls which we should arrive around 18z or 19z and decide from there since we still have plenty of time for the dryline to move east.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

I am going to head out now and take 135 up to Salina and then go west from there. I think I will hang out in Russell, KS and see what becomes of the 18Z update. I can see that the dryline is becoming better defined over far eastern Colorado down into the western TX Pan., but I do not currently like the upper level cirrus at all. This will tend to limit overall insolation. Hopefully this crap will clear out, who knows. Another thing is all the deep moisture is bottled up along the Red River area. I wonder how much of this can make it northward with the weak SFC vectors slowly pushing it towards NW TX. It sure isn't bringing it up towards the MOD risk area but LCL levels are still good in this region. The clouds will help keep this in check, but will also kill the tornado threat if they don't get out of here. I am almost wondering if this is a squall line event for KS. Best wind shear is residing over the KS/N. OK area and I like that! I just wonder if the area south of the Red River in N. Texas will be the area to play since they are already getting some good surface heating and have nice dewpoints down there. That's too long of a drive for me, I will gamble with going to Russell, KS and hanging there for a bit. Heading out my front door now and should be there ~17Z.

 

[David Wolfson]

Moisture return still isn't happening very fast, and I'm concerned about enough sunshine getting to work north of the Red River axis. I still see a suggestion of upper diffluence coming out of central New Mexico. But a Red River moisture surge is a definite possibility and surface pressure falls are north of me, so I'm leaving for Plainview, TX, at 18Z.

 

[Marc Austin]

Gonna head on over to Ellis, KS. I'm not hoping to repeat my experience from May 23 of last year! Although, I must say, it's a lucky place. Two tornadoes passed within a mile of our location and we escaped unharmed. Worried about cloud cover in this case. I do see some hints of it diminishing a bit though as the sun comes out.

 

[Paul Austin]

LOL, you mean Feb 3rd?? Just kidding, I don't know just my opinion but how many people actually did the live chase last time? I think its better to just give the supplemental updates here and there and let people do this on their own time.

Yeah, Feb 3rd, thanks, LOL.
We won't venture from the real-time chase scenario to the reverse-time chase scenario. I don't think I could pull that off even in the virtual world.

 

[Verne Carlson]

The cirrus shield this morning is a bit concerning. It's tempting me to move from Oakley, KS to possibly Burlington, CO just to get into some sunshine and be at the nose of the moisture plume.

 

[Bob Gould]

Based on the wind profiler data in the 15z I think I will head north on I-35 to OKC. I should be there by the 18z update.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Following the latest information... especially after seeing the IR satellite image - I am going to go west on I-70 and head off to Russell, KS.

To the organizer: Do we have any surface obs maps with cloud types indicated?

 

[Corey Sloan]

Moving from Wichita, KS to Great Bend, KS. I too do not like the cloud cover in central, western Kansas....but temps are in the low 60's, moisture return is ok with Dp's in the upper 50's.....would like to see the cloud cover break.....will wait here for the next model runs......

 

[Brandon Ivey]

Moving from Wichita, KS to Great Bend, KS. I too do not like the cloud cover in central, western Kansas....but temps are in the low 60's, moisture return is ok with Dp's in the upper 50's.....would like to see the cloud cover break.....will wait here for the next model runs......

I would like to see these cirrus clouds break also (and any other type of clouds that are below the cirrus deck that we can't see on the vis sat.). The only problem with that is if these wind vectors do not turn more southerly and increase in speed, we are going to be faced with large Tdd spreads this afternoon leading to high based convection. We need a nice lee side low to develop and rapidly advect the moisture northward, otherwise I see a limited severe threat across the MOD with a linear storm mode. Still taking my chances though. Russell is only a 2 hour drive from my front door. May go visit Mushroom State Park again if things look to be a bust!

 

[Paul Austin]

Following the latest information... especially after seeing the IR satellite image - I am going to go west on I-70 and head off to Russell, KS.

To the organizer: Do we have any surface obs maps with cloud types indicated?

Sorry, Tarmo, I don't know where to find archived sfc obs maps better than what I've provided. If someone has a source, I'll consider posting what I can get.

 

[John Farley]

I'm in this late - glanced at it yesterday but too busy to post. Initially with the first batch of data I was thinking about Springfield, MO - but now looking at the current data it is evident I need to be farther west and farther north. I'm not liking this setup all that much due to the widespread high cloud cover, but since it is a virtual chase and I don't really have to drive, I will head up to Russell, KS and see what develops. Any of you other chasers there want to meet for a bite and to compare data?