Chase Case #15

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

And I'm off to Wichita, KS... Standing by for latest info...

P.S. Out of character to IRL: A question - at what time frame there will be a live chase this time?

 

[Bob Hartig]

Wichita, KS for me as well. I'll join you for dinner and a good quality brew.

Sounds good, Pat. Meet you at River City Brewing on Mosley Street.

 

[Jim Cross]

Ill be waking up in Wellington, Kansas

 

[Matt Gingery]

Feels good to get back to chasing! Im going to set up shop in Oklahoma City. . .

 

[Paul Austin]

And I'm off to Wichita, KS... Standing by for latest info...

P.S. Out of character to IRL: A question - at what time frame there will be a live chase this time?

I haven't decided for sure there will be. I'd like to do something like that, though. If we do the live chase thing, I'll wait until next week and let everyone know by Monday when it will occur. Thanks for asking. I'll also try to take into account the late hour, but most folks in the states work until around 22z, so it's difficult to accommodate everyone.

 

[Paul Austin]

For some reason its working now, at least I think so. Nobody else is on the map though other than myself and the icon Paul Austin created.

Yeah, sometimes it takes a few minutes to update. Make sure you Save the map after positioning, and then hit refresh on your browser. As long as you click Done and then Save Map, it should work, even if the marker doesn't update right away. Thanks to all who are creating your own waypoints. Saves me a bit of work/time

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Target: Coalgate, OK

 

[Jared Orr]

I'm going to sleep at my house tonight in Kansas City, Mo until further data becomes available.

 

[Danny Neal]

I spent the night in Pratt, KS waiting for the new updates.

 

[Corey Sloan]

Staging location: Wichita, KS at the Days Inn

 

[Paul Austin]

12z Chase Day Data

12Z Observations:

12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook (Avoid clicking this link if you feel it might give away the date for you.)
Discussion (Again, think twice before clicking if you believe you're sufficiently familiar with enough discussions to figure out the date.)

Upper Air:
850mb
700mb
500mb
300mb

Surface Observations:
Eastern CONUS
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Midwest
Mississippi Valley

Soundings:
Amarillo, TX
Midland, TX
Fort Worth, TX
Norman, OK
Shreveport, LA
Springfield, MO
Little Rock, AR
Nashville, TN
Wilmington, OH
Lincoln, IL
Green Bay, WI
Riverton, WY
Rapid City, SD
Aberdeen, SD
Denver, CO
North Platte, NE
Omaha, NE
Dodge City, KS
Topeka, KS

Visible Satellite Imagery:
National
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Mid-Mississippi Valley

IR Satellite Imagery:
National

Radar Imagery:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Mississippi Valley
Middle Mississippi Valley
Lower Mississippi Valley

VWP Imagery:
500m-3000m AGL
3000m-9000m MSL

Good luck to all, and if you guess the date, please PM me. I'll start adding waypoints for those who didn't get a chance to.

Chase Positioning Map

 

[Buddy W Bradley]

I think I will start out in Emporia Kansas. May have to go northward as the day goes by.

 

[Jason Branz]

Hmmm...I like the low-level turning present in both Haviland and Fairbury, but the flow is a bit weak. After checking out the surface obs, I'm gonna venture northward here in a little while, but not far. As someone mentioned before, that moisture might not get as far north as expected. Comparing the 850mb, sfc, and profilers, I think the better tornado potential will remain at the southern end of the MOD area. So let's pick Medicine Lodge as a target for now. I think I'll spend the morning doing some photography in the Glass Mts.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Based on the surface obs I don't like how the winds are going in every direction over the S Plains which is going to make it difficult for the moisture to be transported north which is shallow to begin with from I40 north. I am going to take a huge gamble and head south to the southern end of the SLIGHT risk with a target of Wichita Falls, TX. The moisture in W Texas is very deep as you can see by the 850mb map unlike further north. I just don't think we can get enough moisture north of I40 to get good storms later. I also like the clearing skies in NW Texas which will allow longer destabilization, and the sounding at Ft. Worth is showing MLCAPE around 1500 j/kg at 12z, so with that I am hoping I am right because it will be impossible to get back north if something crazy happens over the next 12 hours.

 

[Bob Hartig]

North from Wichita to Belleville, KS, and waiting for updates. I'll trust the SPC on the moisture at this point; as for the rest, I like this position relative to the projected H3 and H5 jet maxes.