Chase Case #15

[Dennis Dennison]

Heading to Pampa, TX-but I still think Pensacola, Fl will get something

 

[Andrew Revering]

I've drifted northeast to Akron, CO.

 

[Bob Gould]

Made it to OKC and judging from the 18z I am wondering if I overshot. There is definitely some warmer air about 50 miles to the south. I think will sit tight here and watch the radar. I guess I will grab a slice of pie at Marie Calendars in Norman and wait to see what bubbles up

 

[Paul Townsend]

After perusing the 18Z data, I take a little trip form Woodward to Shamrock ,TX. The warmfront is just south of the Red River, but the ageostrophic circulation associated with the exit region of the upper jet will be aiding in the northwest transport of the low level moisture and thermal properties to my south and east. I am hoping that being further south will put me in an area of less strong sinking air, while getting closer to the unstable low level airmass. Also, if the dryline comes into play, I have headed west to be closer to intercepting initiation along it.

 

[Charles Kuster]

I am not very confident in my current location or in my forecast. Colorado/NW Kansas and Texas are too far away from me now, so I am going to move down to Sitka, KS and see what happens. I should get there at about 20Z.

 

[Jason Branz]

Hmmm...well, I'm heading west out of P28. I'd expect the cirrus to thin out west, so we're going to head west-southwest to Gage, OK. I'd go farther west from there, but I want to stay on the leading edge of the moisture return. From Gage I can drop down into the TX Panhandle or try to recover north, but with that cirrus in the way, the southern play is looking better and better.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Well sitting in Russel Ks. going over the 18Z data. Noticing that I am still under a hazy cloud deck. I am heading west out of Russel, and should be in Colby Ks. by 1930z. On the western fringe of the cirrus deck I can make out a line of Cu from SW Nebraska into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Looking like the upper environment will quickly destabilize the situation regardless of the cloud deck by 19-21z. I am going to try and position on the initiation point of the cells. Td's in the 30's in E. Colorado stick out to me as well. I have the option to cruise NE into S. Nebraska, as well as heading south to Garden City. I think these will be fast movers, and as they push east they will become linear. I would say the convective outlook wasn't so much for tornadoes as it was for damaging winds and hail. I want to play the fringe, and my territory will run from McCook Nebraska to Perryton Tx. I can always go east if I need to. I am concerned that not enough moisture will advect northward. Looking towards E Kansas, SE Nebraska, and into Oklahoma Td's are well into the 50's, still not high enough to raise my brow. Td in Colby is 47 at lunch time. If we get anything initiating early in W Kansas area it should be LP cellular. I actually am tempted to head into Colorado, although, I think I am maxed out as far as going west. The WAA just won't reach those areas early enough to create any activity. I actually should stay in Russell, but I can always play catch up. This is a great case! I really don't have a whole lot of clues as to where I want to be. All I can do is traverse this small area of W Kansas and observe the situation. Like Dennis said, Florida doesn't look all that bad for activity either. Looks like a strong Omega High over the Great Lakes or NE CONUS is controlling the synoptic pattern and creating a large convergence boundary from Florida up through the Tennessee Valley, Miss Valley, and the Midwest. But, I have to point out that the best insane upper shear is across SE Colorado getting ready to rake into W Kansas. The fact that this unusually early season ridge is parked over the NE CONUS leads me to be that this will be widespread across Kansas and Nebraska as the low deepens and rides up the backside of the high into the upper Mississippi valley. South is a good play along the dryline, but I don't see any advancement of the dryline in New Mexico, and I also don't see enough warming at the surface to erode the inversion layer across the southern extent, and without the jet streak cells should be isolated. I am forced to hang here in Colby and hope we get enough daytime heating coupled with the upper level jet streak should be enough to initiate cells even with modest Td's. I will hang in Kansas til the next update.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

My initial gut instinct from beginning of thread was northeast CO upslope... but now with new data, I had decided that Silverton-Childress, TX is too much to pass up with thermal ridge mid 80s and mid-upper 60s dewpoints nosing into NW TX. Cool air aloft ejecting out of the Southwest with a southern branch jet... Red River corridor does look interesting... so I'm probably sitting in Silverton. I anticipate some increased westerly momentum mix-down along TX-NM border to help with convergence (crossing fingers).

 

[Jim Tang]

I would've originally picked Wichita, KS at 12Z, but now I'm moving SW to Alva, OK.

Really don't like the extensive cloudcover at all, however, so I'm probably going to end up in places further west/south. Hard to get too far away from the WF however. I guess I'll wait for 21Z satellite to make a more radical move, if any.

 

[Wes Carter]

Well, I think I'm going to mosey on along westward on highway 70 and try to get somewhere near Vernon, TX. I'm pretty happy I went south, I just wish I hadn't gone so far east.

Correction: I just want to get a bit west of Ardmore, OK. I think I will be better off not trying to run that fast on 70, and I might get lucky.

 

[Jim Tang]

I would've originally picked Wichita, KS at 12Z, but now I'm moving SW to Alva, OK.

Really don't like the extensive cloudcover at all, however, so I'm probably going to end up in places further west/south. Hard to get too far away from the WF however. I guess I'll wait for 21Z satellite to make a more radical move, if any.

Crap. I figured out the date. Oh well, would've been biased anyway since I already had a hunch. Take me out of the chase.

 

[David Wolfson]

As I suspected, the low-level moisture is still only to an axis along the Red River, and the pressure gradient is only starting to sharpen up that far south. I still think I see some diffluence at upper levels now in the northern Texas Panhandle, and a little cooling coming in at mid-level should nibble at the cap.

Storms will be moving a bit south of east at 20 kts. or so. Anyway I think I'll head up to Canadian, TX, for 21Z, by way of Pampa at 20Z to decide then if the move on to Canadian is a good idea.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

To be sincere I don't like this cloud cover at all here in Ks. I'm going over the 18Z surface analysis and I'm starting to look at Tx Panhandle situation with more interest: best moisture, best insolation and nice shear with the coming of the dryline.
As concerns my position here in Pratt I decide to move to DDC to keep a an eye with more attention to the dryline, that is forming down in east Colorado.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Clouds that are now appearing in my location too, are obviously concerning. However, right now, I have decided to remain at Russell, KS and monitor the latest situation.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Given the current motion of the low I'm starting to consider the possibility to get some good stuff in NW Ks so I 'm moving to Oakley,Ks. Hope to arrive by 21Z. Hope that the system in SE Wayoming is getting in NW Kansas. Otherwise I will try to go North in W Nebraska.