Chase Case #15

[Matt Gingery]

Just got to Colby Kansas. Waiting for the next update. With all of this talk about the Panhandle of Texas, I am getting a bit nervous. The Td's in Texas do look good but I am concerned that there will not be enough boundary interaction to aid in the development. Although the warm front could be a possibility. . . If we don't have a substantial DL rushing in from New Mexico, I am concerned that the winds at the surface in Texas are paralleling the warm front. I may not be seeing whats coming in from New Mexico either. . .Could be a shortwave rushing in that will create explosive development along the warm front. Great verical shear and high Td's... Gee, I hope I am making the right decision. The WAA is pushing NW and should make it to W or SW Kansas by the 21Z update or 23Z update. This has to be an autumn or early spring event, so daylight has to be an issue. I am not going anywhere until the next update. In RL I would likely have stayed in OKC and not trapsed across 450 miles of hwy through Kansas.

I wonder if we will get an update between 18z and 21z??? In RL we would, LOL

 

[Andrea Griffa]

With all of this talk about the Panhandle of Texas, I am getting a bit nervous. The Td's in Texas do look good but I am concerned that there will not be enough boundary interaction to aid in the development.

Matt,I wouldn't think so: the dryline is pushing east and soon it could be interacting with moist air coming from the east in North-west Tx; it's just 18Z and we have 64 Td in Lubbock and as to me this is outrageus. We have no sounding to realize how much Cap has formed in those zones, but I think that could be an explosive situation for those people. If I could do another target I would choose LBB.
At any rate our position is not bad: maybe we should go a little north. I'm trying my best to understand the possible motions and velocity of this low pressure system but I need a new run to make a comparison with the old analysis: so far, I would say it's quite static but it's still too early.

I wonder if we will get an update between 18z and 21z??? In RL we would, LOL

It would be great LOL

 

[Matt Gingery]

Yeah, I am certain that it will happen in Texas, but looking into New Mexico, Td's are still in the 50's, and I cannot decipher a sharp enough contrast, although I do in Colorado. The dryline looks to be coming into W. Texas later, If I could see full data out of New Mexico I could decipher where the boundary is. Td's in SE Colorado are in the teens, and the dryline isn't going to move into Texas until later. Lets hope it happens up north first, and we have the option to head south. Given the probable daylight situation, I would say we are stuck in NW Kansas, SW Nebraska on this one. . .

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'll join Verne in Bird City, KS. Cirrus thins out there leaving a band of cumulus. The dewpoints are obviously marginal, but not unworkable, and importantly, the dewpoint depression is pretty close. I confess that I kind of feel like I'm grabbing at straws when it comes to moisture, and I'm tempted to bail and head south as fast as I can for Texas. But that's hours away. And there are other things about this area that I like. As far as I know, I'm still in the sweet zone for the big upper level winds and associated lifting; the latest VAD shows decent veering with height; and the surface winds remain consistently backed. Also, I'm a stubborn cuss, and I want to see how it plays out for me up here. So, I've committed to northwest Kansas and areas within realistic driving range.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Yeah, I am certain that it will happen in Texas, but looking into New Mexico, Td's are still in the 50's, and I cannot decipher a sharp enough contrast, although I do in Colorado. The dryline looks to be coming into W. Texas later, If I could see full data out of New Mexico I could decipher where the boundary is. Td's in SE Colorado are in the teens, and the dryline isn't going to move into Texas until later. Lets hope it happens up north first, and we have the option to head south. Given the probable daylight situation, I would say we are stuck in NW Kansas, SW Nebraska on this one. . .

Sure,there's still not an high contrast in NM, and that's right, because it's too early;but the important is that you have already 47 Td from the SW, clear sign, to me, that the dry air is pushing and soon you will have an high contrast between moist air coming from the east and dry air from the west. It's only matter of time: I don't know how speedy will be the dry air in NM, but I think we could see the first signs of convection in Tx Panh not too late this time.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Sure,there's still not an high contrast in NM, and that's right, because it's too early;but the important is that you have already 47 Td from the SW, clear sign, to me, that the dry air is pushing and soon you will have an high contrast between moist air coming from the east and dry air from the west. It's only matter of time: I don't know how speedy will be the dry air in NM, but I think we could see the first signs of convection not too late this time.

Yeah, I agree with you. I am just trying to justify staying in Kansas, LOL. I actually started in OKC, and in a RL situation I would not be guessing so much. I would be running loop after loop, and monitoring many other facets. But not being able to guess would take the fun out of the virtual part. In a virtual chase we could actually go to the Colby Municipal airport and rent a jet to fly us to Lubbock in an hour. Hows that sound?

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Yeah, I agree with you. I am just trying to justify staying in Kansas, LOL. I actually started in OKC, and in a RL situation I would not be guessing so much. I would be running loop after loop, and monitoring many other facets. But not being able to guess would take the fun out of the virtual part. In a virtual chase we could actually go to the Colby Municipal airport and rent a jet to fly us to Lubbock in an hour. Hows that sound?

Sounds good
Ok, lets go man, if you want to do that, let's do that. When does the first flight to Lubbock leave?

 

[Josh Richardson]

Im starting to think I should have targeted the TX Panhandle, it would be a lot better place to be in with the low dews in the Central Plains. Oh well, Im still in Hays KS ready to pounce on NW KS whenever things start rolling.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Sounds good
Ok, lets go man, if you want to do that, let's do that. When does the first flight to Lubbock leave?

Let me double check. . .I think they just had one leave. They do have a crop duster available, but it can only get us to Garden City Ks. Looks like we are stuck for now. You know if we jump on a jet, next thing you know people are going to be equipped with jet-packs and all kinds of crazy gadgets and it won't be fun anymore. Where do you want to meet and sulk? Any good places in NW Kansas, I know Verne and Bob are up here too. . .ohh, and just noticed Josh is up here too. There is a whole pile of us here in Kansas. There is just no place like it.

 

[Bob Hartig]

In a virtual chase we could actually go to the Colby Municipal airport and rent a jet to fly us to Lubbock in an hour. Hows that sound?

I favor the Star Trek transporter approach, myself. It's perfect for situations like this. Since we don't get the hourly RUCs on these virtual chases, I think we should at least be allowed a handicap speed of 120 mph--and no pullovers by Kansas police.

 

[Matt Gingery]

I favor the Star Trek transporter approach, myself. It's perfect for situations like this. Since we don't get the hourly RUCs on these virtual chases, I think we should at least be allowed a handicap speed of 120 mph--and no pullovers by Kansas police.

LOL. . .Yeah, Beam me to Lubbock Scottie! I have a 400 hp Corvette, what do you have?

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Let me double check. . .I think they just had one leave. They do have a crop duster available, but it can only get us to Garden City Ks. Looks like we are stuck for now. You know if we jump on a jet, next thing you know people are going to be equipped with jet-packs and all kinds of crazy gadgets and it won't be fun anymore. Where do you want to meet and sulk? Any good places in NW Kansas, I know Verne and Bob are up here too. . .ohh, and just noticed Josh is up here too. There is a whole pile of us here in Kansas. There is just no place like it.

Ok, so let's stay here for now, at most we could join up with those guys in Bird City,Ks.

 

[Bob Hartig]

LOL. . .Yeah, Beam me to Lubbock Scottie! I have a 400 hp Corvette, what do you have?

Let me see...um...a garbage truck. Crap. Still a few bugs in this transporter technology. Guess I'm better off hanging in Bird City with Verne. You and Andrea bop on over and join us if you want. In real life, I've never met any of you, so I'll be wearing a Groucho Marx moustache to help you recognize me.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Let me see...um...a garbage truck. Crap. Still a few bugs in this transporter technology. Guess I'm better off hanging in Bird City with Verne. You and Andrea bop on over and join us if you want. In real life, I've never met any of you, so I'll be wearing a Groucho Marx moustache to help you recognize me.

Cool. . . I am headed to Bird City, Ks. You can't miss me, I am driving a mobile rib crib/martini bar. What do you say Andrea? Wanna meet up in Bird City and go over Data? Lets do this, Lets Dominate the situation. . .Dominate!!

EDIT: By the way, we may have a chance to meet each other this next weekend. Could be a great early season practice run chase, classic dryline set up. Definately west Texas. If it happens Sunday, I will be with Ted Keller from KSFX/KOLR News. I spoke with Dr. Greg Forbes, and he is even positive about the next weekend. . .


Edit: I changed my Avatar pic, just in case I run into any of you all on the road chasing. That way you can attach a face with the name. . . .

 

[Bob Hartig]

I think you're onto something with the mobile rib crib, Matt. After getting a good taste of chaser convergence these past couple years, I think someone equipped with GR3 and a popcorn truck could make a killing out in the Plains.

Re next weekend: Last night, just out of curiosity, I did a long-range GFS run on dewpoints. I was pleased to see the Gulf opening up for business about nine days out. Sounds like it might be even earlier than that, from what you say about next weekend. To me, it looked like Dixie Alley would be lighting up. I didn't dig any deeper, but I foresee a forecast discussion initiating in a few days.