Chase Case #15

[Wes Carter]

I think I'm going to head towards Hugo, OK. I really don't like the cloud cover in KS.

 

[Danny Neal]

I think a jog north to Great Bend is in order...... Driving fairly quickly too..... The anger of the cirrus shield is getting to me

 

[Josh Richardson]

Not liking the cloud cover either over KS and also thinking I made need to get west, gonna head out now to Hays KS and regroup for 18z.

 

[Matt Gingery]

WOW! THERE ISN'T A WHOLE LOT UP HERE IN SMITH CENTER CENTER KS.

LUCKILY I GOT DIRECTIONS FROM THIS GUY. .

THIS IS BERNYL HANKINS, ONE OF THE LOCALS UP HERE. HE RUNS A BARBER SHOP IN SMITH CENTER. HE ASKED ME IF I WAS LOST, AND HINTED THAT I SHOULD GET LOST. HE TOLD ME THEY DON'T TAKE TO KINDLY TO STRANGERS ROUND THEM THERE PARTS.


I AM HEADED TO RUSSEL TO HANG OUT WITH THE REST OF THE FELLOW CHASERS. I'LL BE THERE WITHIN THE HOUR, THERE IS POWER IN NUMBERS....

 

[John Erwin]

I'm going to head west from McPherson and join the growing party in Great Bend, KS. I too don't like the cirrus deck but if that can diminish the other factors (shear, decent moisture return) could provide some interesting activity near here. This area provides excellent access to roads in virtually every direction so it's a great place to sit for now.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Okay, everyone who hates the cirrus deck, raise your hand. <Me!> I'm hoping that thins out as the day progresses. It's still just 10 a.m. I'm going to nudge west to Phillipsburg and hopefully lose the high clouds a little faster, and get closer to the dryline as it sets in.

I'm not familiar with playing upslope scenarios yet, so that part of the discussion is of particular interest to me. What I do know is, northern KS and southern NE are targeted for the left front quad of the jet max. If good moisture can make it up here, there should be a show.

 

[Patrick Martin]

12z update: - After a fine dinner with Bob Hartig in Wichita, opted for an early breakfast while also chewing on the 12z data. Have decided to head west to DDC. Should be there in plenty of time to catch the 15z update/data, and then decide on a direction from there.

15z update: - Moisture return is under way, and winds are backed in DDC. A little torn whether to drop south and gamble on a wrn OK play or on going north and banking on moisture return under the exit region of the upper flow. Hmmm, the cirrus deck is concerning, but thinking that will burn off. Things seem to be a bit further west than I thought last night. What the heck...moving to WaKeeney, KS to grab lunch and the 18z update.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

Well, actually, I am just not too hot on this day at all.
I think the real place to be is down in Pensacola, Florida!!!!!!!!

 

[Dann Cianca]

Still hangin' in Great Bend, KS, twiddlin' my thumbs.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Based on 15Z Surface analysis I will move toward Pratt,Ks and I will adjust the target after have seen 18Z data.

 

[Jim Cross]

Think i will join the crowd in Great Bend, Kansas for now.

 

[Paul Townsend]

Based on the pre-day data I flew, drove, walked, and otherwise matriculated to Norman, OK.

Staying put in Norman to determine what this moisture return is all about, based on the 12Z data.

15Z data has my Plains chaseday deprived brain working in overdrive. I think I am going to head up the northwest passage and get some data at a little after 18Z from Woodward, OK.

 

[Paul Austin]

18Z Observations:


Surface Observations:
Eastern CONUS
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Midwest
Mississippi Valley

Visible Satellite Imagery:
National
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Mid-Mississippi Valley

Radar Imagery:
Northern Plains
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Upper Mississippi Valley
Middle Mississippi Valley
Lower Mississippi Valley

Vertical Wind Profiler Imagery:
500m-3000m AGL
3000m-9000m MSL

Chase Positioning Map

I probably won't update anything beyond 18z until Monday, as I am booked up solid for the weekend. Thanks, everyone for hanging in there, especially if you're among the ones waiting/hoping for the the cloud deck to thin Sorry, no hints from me. I'll let you all know by Monday if I decide to do the afternoon part of the chase as a rt virtual scenario similar to Dann's.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Well we have just arrived in Wichita Falls to a cumulus filled sky and a warm moist airmass. Am starting to like my choice of sticking to the southern target as most of Kansas is still under a cirrus shield.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Am liking the CU field in the CO/KS/NE corner. Heading north out of Burlington and then back east into KS to Bird City, KS

I have commited to KS but I have a sneaking suspicion this is a TX panhandle day.