A few tibits for spring '05

[Craig Maire II]

2005

On the positive side of things, this tornado "drought" has kept the tornado death rate low so far this year as others have mentioned and thats never a bad deal.

 

[Anthony Silver]

The lack of tornado deaths is definetly a good thing. I much prefer to chase tornadoes in open country where there's nothing out there for miles on end, as opposed to chasing in populated areas where you know the storms are destroying people's homes, causing injuries, and taking lives.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

All I can say is, "Look at June!". Right now June is holding some serious promise. JINX

 

[JHadorn]

I've been unbelievably disappointed with 2005. Spending 2001 - 2003 in Iowa meant two years without seeing a single severe storm (for some reason Dubuque has this magic Shield-O-Protection that sends all severe storms north or south). 2004 really had my chaser spark revived and 2005 is my first official chase year. A year that has thus far been crap. Partly due to a few botched decisions of my own, but has largely been due to such a crappy year. My chase vacation starts tomorrow and I've already taken about the first five days of it and decided to go do something else entirely. I hope that June brings a return of interesting weather, but I'm approaching it with a healthy dose of pessimism. Lord knows it hasn't let me down yet.

 

[Rich Thompson]

One last bit of info from Harold Brooks - the 10 lowest May tornado totals when adjusting for trends in tornado reporting:

(2005 126) as of 9 pm on 5/31

1958 141
1970 148
1963 150
1979 150
1992 151
1987 163
1988 167
1956 173
1967 174
1994 176

I'm one of the OF chasers that has had the distinct privilege of surviving the three lamest OK springs in the past half century :^)

Rich T.

p.s. OKC managed to squeak out 0.59" this evening, bringing the Mar-May total to 2.96". This makes 2005 the 2nd driest spring on record.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Man, those are pathetic numbers. Does anyone know why (pattern-wise) we're getting such a bad season?

I can't really put my finger on it. Hell, the upper flow is there. The polar outbreaks have not been too bad. I do know we have not gotten any good days of solid south winds, and the moisture seems to be always a tad too dry or too shallow. Perhaps that's it? What's the deal, is the Gulf cold? Trajectories bad?

Seems like more of a High Plains year if anything.

Tim

 

[Rich Thompson]

Originally posted by Tim Vasquez
Man, those are pathetic numbers. Does anyone know why (pattern-wise) we're getting such a bad season?

I can't really put my finger on it. Hell, the upper flow is there. The polar outbreaks have not been too bad. I do know we have not gotten any good days of solid south winds, and the moisture seems to be always a tad too dry or too shallow. Perhaps that's it? What's the deal, is the Gulf cold? Trajectories bad?

Seems like more of a High Plains year if anything.

Tim

Hey Tim,

I see two primary problems this spring:

1. Large scale flow dominated by blocking episodes, with lots of amplitude to the disturbances and little progression. If you've followed the paths of the waves that have impacted the Plains, the tendency has been for closed systems to lift newd from the Rockies toward KS/NE and weaken/nearly stall. Thereafter, most of these systems have then moved sewd and amplified again over the se states or OH valley. Contrast that with more active seasons when systems eject ewd/newd across the Plains, and there's no mean trough over the east.

2. That same large scale pattern continually reinforced low-level trajectories from the SE Atlantic states across the northern Gulf to TX. It's quite difficult to generate a maritime tropical air mass across the northern half of the Gulf, especially in March and April when open Gulf SSTs range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Negative SST anomalies across the Gulf can reduce boundary layer dewpoints, but most of the time the anomalies are negative because of numerous episodes of offshore flow/upwelling, or lots of clouds and rain. In some sense it's a "chicken and egg" problem.

Rich T.

 

[Bryce Stone]

One effect of a year like 2005 (especially after 2004 and 2003) is that it will thin the ranks of chasers some. A few 200-300 mile trips to see nothing will likely weed out the people who have no genuine long-term interest in severe weather and no patience for bust days.

I'm posting this after seven straight hours of driving (round trip) to see a bust (I hate caps that don't break . . . lol). However, it's always nice to get out of the house, and my interest in severe weather has not diminished at all. I, at least, will survive 2005.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

I agree with Shane--not a single complaint from me. I've seen two storms now, GRI on the 10th and Limon last night, that rank among my top ten all time. Amazing supercells. Most of the lament about chase season 2005, it seems to me, comes from people sitting at home.

No question the tornado numbers are down, moisture meager, and the pattern less than perfect through most of May. However there are storms out here for those willing to find them.

 

[Marcus Opitz]

Due to the fact that one must "Earn it" I have been learning as much as possible when it comes to forecasting and soundings. Last year seemed to come too easy without much indepth analysis (for me anyway). This year is a motivator!