5/8/04 FCST - KS, NE, IA

[Ryan J Carter]

I am new to the forum, and Saturday is my first day of a 10 day chase vacation. I live in Des Moines, IA, and I am going to park myself here at home as I can get almost anywhere in Iowa within 3 hours.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

I've done a quick analysis of current conditions and a scan of the 0Z ETA. I like the ETA's optomism about moving the front into SD and northern Iowa. I'll be anxious to see if that verifies. I hope so, because at the moment I think that if the front stays around Omaha, where it is now, or anywhere in the southern half of Iowa, the cap and weak upper level support will kill us again.

Go front go!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'm liking the VTN area perhaps north into SD, BUT 850 and 700 temps much cooler further east along the sfc boundary. 0z ETA seems to have little in the way of convergence along the dryline and hardly a sfc low. Part of me says take a middle ground somewhere between Sioux Falls and Sioux City. If convergence out west looked better that'd seem like the no brainer location to be. But eta showing zero winds west of the dl and high temps at 850 and to some degree at 700. Part of me thinks being further east is a much wiser choice. But, that area out there loves to have meso lows, especially with such high temps. Get a good meso low and all east bets are off. I think I'll likely op east along I-29 till/if I see some decent sfc convergence out west. Sort of scary at this time though as this front still really ain't lifting north very fast. I agree, most important thing...front needs to get going northward. Lots of chasers in this area. Coud be one mass convergence heading north on I-29 tomorrow. DaveL and well, I'm not sure if it's the tours or who, but they are just down the road from me at the super8. I say 5% tor from VTN to sc MN. Any other late night takers?

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

Mike, do me a favor and shut off the faucet down there. All night it has been starting east of you and pouring down over us. I'm getting ready to get the kayaks out, or better yet, build the ark!!!

It seems the front has started to move north a bit, probably not as fast as you'd like, but it's moving. Looks like another day of lots of hail to me.

Tim

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Friday looked better then today does....lol. Now that it's morning would still say VTN, or maybe a bit se of there, but is this worth the gas? It is May I guess.

 

[Jeff Miller]

hmm

Not sure what to think at this point. Ill see what happens a little later today.... seems that the days that dont seem to "have it" do and the days thatr are supposed to "dont". Im playing this hour by hour today.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Yeesh.. today fell apart, didn't it.. I guess something could change to bring up the chances, but crud.. they certainly crushed today's hopes over at SPC, didn't they.. I mean, it only takes on good storm, but it's not looking healthy.. glad I chose to save my resources for mid-week.. just hope that pans out a bit better than today is looking. Guess we'll see what happens later! Good luck out there!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Yeah our problem is this stupid sfc boundary not wanting to lift north to get under the slightly better upper winds and our cap leaving us only elevated ops. Trying to jinx this the right way here.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Denison IA was reporting last surface ob a 77/72. Impressive dew for sure.

 

[Austin Ivey]

Unless there is some localized moisture pooling near Denison I believe that 72 dew is erroneous. Especially when most of the other surface obs in the region are reporting low-mid 60s. I mean the closest place I can find what I think are accurate 70+ dews is on the upper TX and LA coast 800+ miles south.

Who knows, maybe the corn is already growing tall near Denison! :lol:

 

[Jeff Miller]

A few other dew readings at the MO/IA border are at 70 as well...

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/metar...ars/sfc_pir.gif

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Well there is a boundary there that has been there or slowly drifting north for HOURS now. If it's wrong the mid-upper 60s to it's south that aren't on the boundary would have to be as well.

 

[Austin Ivey]

i only see one 70+ dew in the entire area (Dennison 72F) as of the 1613UTC map

 

[Jeff Miller]

True now...the 70 dews dropped to 68/65 respectively. I will note that the Denison area for whatever reason usually does report somewhat higher dews...last few systems has caused a +3 or +4 dew increase then surrounding areas. Cant say wether this is actual or erroneous..but the presence of that boundary leads me to believe it mighht indeed be some pooling there. Id almost have to drive down there to be sure

 

[Joel Wright]

There are a few observation sites out in IA that usually report bogusly high readings every summer. I believe Denison is one of them, I know Shenendoah is one. Sometimes their dewpoint is reported as high as the upper 80's while all other sites are in the 70's.