5/8/04 FCST - KS, NE, IA

[Mike Peregrine]

To discuss any possibilities on Saturday ...

From SPC Day Three:

MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...SUPPRESSING TOP OF RIDGE AND LIKELY BREAKING PERSISTENT CAPPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM IA ESEWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND A LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE MIXING EWD INTO CENTRAL NEB/WRN KS/WRN TX.

 

[Tony Laubach]

SPC's running a slight risk of severe with a bull's eye of 25% over Iowa for Saturday. Weekend warriors may need to eye this situation over the next 48 hours.

A shortwave is progged to kick through Saturday which will hopefully be enough to break the cap over the areas. The risk basically follows the forecasted area where the warm front and dryline will be positioned during the day, with the max threat hanging over Iowa.

Due to finals creeping in on Monday, I would likely target the area in Western Kansas/South-Central Nebraska, which would keep me at arm's distance from home. Also, I don't want to strain my resources, as a possible trip looms mid-week, followed quickly by my 2 week chase vacation. This may be a teaser for me, but we'll see. It looks like the most promising things so far in May. More to come as I have a chance to look in more detail...

 

[Jason Montano]

...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL/WIND ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. AREA MAY NEED UPGRADE TO MODERATE IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

Boy I sure do like it when the SPC talks like that about a day 3 outlook. I have not taken a look at models yet today but it sounds as though Saturday could be good.

 

[Austin Ivey]

My preliminary Saturday target will lie somewhere along the dryline in the vicinity of W. Kansas/OK & TX panhandle. Convergence along the DL will be strong as will afternoon insolation. Surface moisture has also been creeping back northward. I saw a 61DP in Roswell while looking at this morning METARS! Furthermore, ETA has been consistently breaking out convection along the DL in the aforementioned areas on Saturday since Tuesday. The AMA AFD also looked less bleak than it has in previous days:

"MODELS CONTINUED THEME
FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
PARAMETERS ACTUALLY REACHING MODERATE PROPORTIONS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ALONG THE WESTERN COUNTIES."

Wind fields still look crappy, but I'm going to hold out some hope for activity since MS valley region is beyond my reach this coming weekend.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Not too sure about the panhandle scenario ... the wind just doesn't appear supportive of supes down that way at this time. Best shear environment currently looking like north of the MO/IA border. Maybe you'll get lucky with some localized backing -

I can't find myself getting overly excited with a zonal flow regime. Evidently going to be a relatively strong system, though. I'm also curious about how Friday's results might interract with Saturday, as there seems to be precipitation in the same area showing up on all of the GFS runs from 0600 Friday through 1200 Sunday. That being the case, I may be more inclined to target further west, along the NE/IA line on Saturday, hoping for sufficient clearing and enough backing to get'r done.

 

[Austin Ivey]

i totally agree about the wind fields. They are forecasted to be entirely crappy. Like I said however, NE & IA are out of reach for me this wknd so I have to hold out hope for something closer!

 

[Jared Mysko]

I'm wondering how far north this system may cause severe weather. I'm hoping to chase extreme southern Saskatchewan on Saturday, but maybe it will be just wishful thinking. Looks like most of the instability will be in North Dakota with the heaviest amounts of precipitation. Surface temperatures are going to be much higher in SD, NB, and IA though. Maybe I will drive down there this weekend and see what I can see.

I'm keeping my eyes on this anyway since the plains have been in a slow period lately. It is about time to see some action!

Jared Mysko

 

[Tony Laubach]

Originally posted by Austin Ivey
Like I said however, NE & IA are out of reach for me this wknd so I have to hold out hope for something closer!

I'm in the same boat.. one more leashed weekend, then it really doesn't matter! I could get as far as Kearney, NE I think; and yes, I know.. Northern Iowa is a stone's throw from there, but Kearney is about the furthest I am going to get tomorrow.. if my finals were on Tuesday, I'd be all over Iowa.. but I do need some study time.

I'm going to wait a couple more runs and see what filters through.. hoping that something could go as far west and south as Hays, KS; I could deal with a good hailer if need be! Just something to get me back on the road after being sidelined with bad tonsils! :lol:

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The SPC has enhanced the language in Day Two a bit, including the following:

...STRENGTH OF FORECAST LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS. THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

Jetstream winds at 300mb:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs0...6hr_300_wnd.gif

Closer to the surface 850mb:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs0...6hr_850_wnd.gif

I'll probably chase on Saturday and Sunday both, even if it just ends up being for lightning - - -

 

[Tony Laubach]

Originally posted by Mike Peregrine
I'll probably chase on Saturday and Sunday both, even if it just ends up being for lightning - - -

You gonna play in Iowa? They seem pretty confident up there right now.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I'll probably be up there, yeah ... with CAPE in the 2500-3500 range we should see some good storms of one type or another (whether they rotate or not), and I'm just wanting to get out and do something - - -

 

[Austin Ivey]

Yeah, I'm just wanting to get out too, so I'm not paying much attention to the lack of tornadic potential (and really sig. svr) down along the dryline in KS/OK/TX. SPC has moved DY2 slt rsk closer to me so I'll likely be heading out in the mernin' to Tucumcari where I know I can get a Verizon signal for my Ositech and just wait to see what, if anything, pops! If nothing else maybe I can get some scenic tstorm shots.

 

[Tony Laubach]

My hopes were that the threat area would shift south a bit, and maybe a hair west.. nope, shot north and east.. too far for me to make... ugh.. a couple more days would've been great.. ah well; may save my money and energy for mid-week (more in other threads)...

As for the dryline.. its close enough for me (within a few hours) to make that choice tomorrow morning, for I am not about to plan the entire day around the 15% chance of microbursts. Since I can be in West Kansas in as little as 3 hours, I can afford to wait til tomorrow morning before hoisting a target zone.. but it'll be the only way I'll head out is if I feel Western Kansas has a shot.. will keep an eye on things...

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Lookin like the Pierre SD area to me right now.

 

[Jared Mysko]

Oh Ya! They just moved the slight risk further north up the the Sask border! I can't pass this up on a Saturday. Woo Hoo!

Jared