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5/30/05 FCST: So. Plains

Models coming into agreement that ridging will be breaking up and allowing impulses across an east-west oriented jet stream (zonal flow) by Monday, with a decent impulse kicking out into the southern plains. NCEP ensemble also shows precip breaking out in region of TX panhandle. Still a few days out, but thought since this is a holiday weekend we could at least get some conversation going on the possibility for a chase down south on Monday.
 
The ridge finally starts to break and we get westerlies but I am worried about the cold front prog'd to come through here sunday night. We will be in the low 60s for highs on monday with NE winds. The front should be south of LBB and closer to I-20 by monday afternoon. If the front can hold up in our northern counties until monday evening we would have an additional boundary and much warmer temps for destabiliziation but dont count on it.
 
Well I think the western SP's can get some action on Monday. This will start what will hopefully be a decent chase period for us. I like the ne New Mexico area and east from there into the northern TX panhandle and OK panhandle. We will have good moisture for this area...Upper 50's Td's is plently for the elevation. With temps around mid 70's to upper 70's in the area will give T-Td 15 degree range...which is doable for tornados (LCL height). CAPE values progged to be in the 1500 to possibly 2000 J/Kg range. Helicity values will be 300 m2/s2. So there will be good directional shear with this setup, although speeds are a little on the weak side...500 mb speeds are good at 35-45knts.

Cap is definately breakable Monday...unlike the supercap that has killed some setups over the past 7-10 days. My concerns for this day are leftover clouds from Sunday nights MCS. But with any luck, we will be able to mix out those clouds. If so, shear will definately support discrete sups for Monday and a couple of tornados. :wink:
 
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