I can understand targeting Hays, but I think that the storm to follow may be farther south and not necessarily part of the initial initiation. I'd hope for a storm that is farther south and to the east (perhaps fired by outflow from one of the initial storms).
Satellite seems to indicate a pretty capped environment right now, which is a good thing, since stuff firing too early would probably not be a good thing. Clouds are also preventing a lot of surface heating right now, but I think lift will be provided more by upper levels than requiring the surface heating on its own.
I'm inexperienced on my pattern matching abilities, but I'm reminded of 3/28/07 somewhat. (It seems weird to compare a late March event with a late May event, but...) That day had similar storm motions and produced an extremely long-lived tornado that began near Great Bend (if memory serves) and was still cranking on the ground several hours later near Grant, NE. (Nearly south to north vector). This day has similar potential, IMHO, only with multiple cells possibly producing. Here's a comparison of the 12Z conditions on 03-28-07 and today:
http://144.216.6.33/weather/032807comparison/index.html
As I'm still learning, feel free to school me regarding significant differences (positives or negatives).
Obviously, being later in the season, we've got much better tds to work with.
Given the storm speed/motion, I don't know if it is a big mistake to be too far north, since it seems to be a trade off between keeping up/catching a storm or waiting and getting run over by your target.
I'm hoping that a right mover from that area will reel into the theta-e advecting from the E-SE and provide a more NE moving storm. I'd be looking for a storm that initiates between Dodge City and Great Bend and moves N-NE from there. I think a lot of chasers are going to be suckered in by the stuff that fires first farther north.
