5/22/08 FCST: NE, KS, TX, MO, OK

[Warren Faidley]

Target for today: Initial = Perryton, TX.

Been burned too many times in very similar scenarios, of blasting to chase fast moving northern storms, crossing into more stable air, although the advantages of starting north are a plus.

Will target southwestern most storm(s) near dryline, especially if the dryline retreats sw in the late afternoon. Hopefully, storms will be more isolated and moving slower outside of heavy flow.

Good luck and a safe day to all.

W.

 

[Adam Penney]

Stayed overnight here in Hays and see no reason to be in a hurry this morning. There is some elevated "stuff" going on just out to the west, but looking at the visibile sat this morning, it doesn't seem to ge a great concern. I'm not going to repeat every parameter thats already been stated, but all in all it looks to be a possible great chase day. Lets hope those nasty storm speeds don't get the best of us! Good luck to everyone today.

 

[David Wolfson]

Currently at the Annie Oakley motel in Oakley, KS (cute). Last evening the progs were showing the surface wf running ese just south of the NE border. This morning's truth shows the front just about bisecting KS from nw to se corner, with the progs only showing slight if any movement to the ne. The best juice is nosing into KS in the Medicine Lodge vic. Dynamics should bring this best moisture through the day in an arc toward the mesolow in north central CO. Meanwhile the dryline stays in far wsw KS, a considerable retreat from last night's progs. Low level helicity is off the charts approaching the front but deep shear hangs west at the dryline. Plenty of CAPE to do serious damage. Initial storm motion is something like 40+ kts from 190 maturing to something like 35+ kts from 220. Oy gevalt.

Bottom line is my amateur crystal ball shows initiation off the high country in far se CO, i.e. Springfield - Elkhart, maturing northward and propagating eastward as discrete cells toward Dodge City/Pratt, then off to the races. Target: Garden City, KS.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Targeting SW Kansas/NW Oklahoma. Due to work, I will be getting a late start from OKC (3 this afternoon). I am in the van, so if anybody wishes to ride along and split gas, let me know by then. I work at OU Medical Center, which is by the State Capital Building.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Targeting Hays, on the road now heading that way. Dealing with some overcast, but not very concerned about it. Everything is in place for a perfect setup, only concern is these storms firing up and having a tough time keeping up with them.

 

[W. Grant Dade]

Looking to head to SW OK. Isolated storms and slower movement is my main reason. Could be a big bust. Going to hang out until around noon before I make my move. Anyone in East TX or the Dallas area that wants to tag along and help with gas send a PM. 35mpg Camary!!

Anyone else not able to connect to the SPC site?

 

[Darren Addy]

I can understand targeting Hays, but I think that the storm to follow may be farther south and not necessarily part of the initial initiation. I'd hope for a storm that is farther south and to the east (perhaps fired by outflow from one of the initial storms).

Satellite seems to indicate a pretty capped environment right now, which is a good thing, since stuff firing too early would probably not be a good thing. Clouds are also preventing a lot of surface heating right now, but I think lift will be provided more by upper levels than requiring the surface heating on its own.

I'm inexperienced on my pattern matching abilities, but I'm reminded of 3/28/07 somewhat. (It seems weird to compare a late March event with a late May event, but...) That day had similar storm motions and produced an extremely long-lived tornado that began near Great Bend (if memory serves) and was still cranking on the ground several hours later near Grant, NE. (Nearly south to north vector). This day has similar potential, IMHO, only with multiple cells possibly producing. Here's a comparison of the 12Z conditions on 03-28-07 and today:
http://144.216.6.33/weather/032807comparison/index.html
As I'm still learning, feel free to school me regarding significant differences (positives or negatives).
Obviously, being later in the season, we've got much better tds to work with.

Given the storm speed/motion, I don't know if it is a big mistake to be too far north, since it seems to be a trade off between keeping up/catching a storm or waiting and getting run over by your target.

I'm hoping that a right mover from that area will reel into the theta-e advecting from the E-SE and provide a more NE moving storm. I'd be looking for a storm that initiates between Dodge City and Great Bend and moves N-NE from there. I think a lot of chasers are going to be suckered in by the stuff that fires first farther north.

 

[Paul Knightley]

Dryline does perhaps look like holding further west, although DDC sounding shows moisture is not especially deep there - mixing could easily push the dryline to DDC this afternoon, although continuing moisture return will hinder that somewhat. Gonna continue to hold in Hays for the time being - think something significant will occur within 100 miles or so. We'll probably drop SW through the afternoon somewhat, towards DDC or Garden City.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Currently en route to Hays KS. 1630 outlook continues to feature strong wording which is reassuring!

Quick look through MSAS and 12z products continue to show a nice event for later tonight.

Should be in Hays by 6:45

 

[Geoff Manikin]

12z NAM has slowed the forecasted storm motions a bit for late afternoon / early evening with generally 25-30kt over western KS . It's showing even slower motions closer to the KS/NE border. This reduction in predicted speed is a nice improvement from the 00z run.

The negative is that the forecasted storm direction over the northern half of KS is actually north-northwest. It's more north-northeast further south but still lacking a significant eastward component.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Wow, CIN looks like it is rapidly eroding per the 17z mesonalysis update - from NE CO down through S Central Kansas, right along the surface moisture convergence zone. The RUC has been strongly hinting of early initiation all morning, but I was somewhat skeptical. Besides the initiation in NE CO (see NOW thread), we could see even larger scale initiation prior to 20z. Fortunately, instability has already built nicely with the steep lapse rates and robust moisture return. Good deep layer shear looks to be knocking on the door of the moderate risk area, also.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Things look to fire well before the mid-levels veer. Hell ruc doesn't veer them much later expect waaay south. I don't think I'd want to be terribly far south of the warm front unless I was WAY south for later if things can veer aloft down there.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s1/xover.gif

Pretty small area with nice 850-500 crossover south of the wf.

In Wakeene pondering dropping south to the next highway...hoping something goes in that pre-frontal moist axis like it looks it will.