5/22/08 FCST: NE, KS, TX, MO, OK

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Im doing the southern Target tomorrow, around Pratt or Greensburg. I know everyones going north for the warm front and I completely understand that but Ive ALWAYS been a tail end charlie person. I mean if April 24 happens all over again where we get cells waay up north, I can always book it north (or Not seeing storm motions) but im ok with that if It means missing a storm b/c I just dont like going that far north for personal reasons. Ive always been a Southern Plains guy. And besides Im sorda kinda spotting for Wichita.
I just believe that even though models arent painting a whole lot of QPF south of I-70 tomorrow, its obviously b/c of a stronger CAP but I do believe that theres is a chance a storm could fire somewhere just east of DDC and will be an immediate right mover and generate its own atmospheric environment such that a violent tornado is possible.

EDIT: on the other hand (which shows how much I really know), I am somewhat concerned about early initiation, esp further north. Im just hoping CAP WILL hold further south. I say this b/c of the amount of forcing associated with this system. Course WE ALL will know a lot more with real hard data in the morning.

 

[Evan Stubbart]

I'll be heading to Colby, KS tomorrow and arriving around 3pm to get a better look at things and go from there. I'm driving out from the Denver area if anyone would like to join me to spit costs (plus I'm in a Rental Car that is covered by my work)... I also like what I see up north of Colby near the NE/KS border but fear that those storms will get wiped out by cells south of them... My email is [email protected] if anyone is interested in meeting up.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Initial target for tomorrow is to head towards WaKeeney with targeted arrival between 2-3pm CT with the objective of playing the area south of the DL & WF intersection. Will adjust as necessary in the morning after coffee and data. Work commitments Fri require a return trip back to Denver Thur night, but unless things change dramatically in the AM, I am currently favoring the area along hwy 283 from Hill City south to Ness City. I'll be in a black Honda Accord, so if you see me parked, feel free to say hello.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Right now targeting Hays KS. Looks to be a nice location after browsing over some 00z stuff.. Couple of parameter bullseyes right nearby...

Want to wish everyone good luck...

 

[Shane Adams]

With the expected storm motions/speeds I'm apt to avoid setting up too near the WF tomorrow. Anything crossing it will do so at a near-90 degree angle, putting it into the mushball environment. I'm not concerned with the insane helicity values progged along and north of the front; I'll take instability over shear any day.

Currently, my plan is to head to ICT, then drift west. H5 winds look to be veered more southwesterly in the NW OK/SW KS areas, enhancing the 0-6Km shear. Also, storm speeds will be a bit more easterly (helps with the 0-1Km shear), plus they'll be moving slower. If for some reason nothing goes south of the TP, then we'll be toast. I'm willing to take that chance. Watching storms race away to the north I can deal with, but seeing that one lone sup going nuts over NW/NC OK while I'm on I-70 would make me insane.

Tomorrow reminds me a lot of 5-29-04, in that the storms will likely fire well west of the deep moisture/instability, and gradually tap the better air as they track NE. I figure the Pratt area is a good spot to start, either for initiation, or to scoop up that capbuster sup that's gonna pop in NW OK. Hell, maybe we'll get lucky and get em both.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Well my target will be WaKeeney KS but I will not be at my target because of work ...darn it. Looks very good to me. Not so excited about the 40-45 mph storm motions, but that can change with any right mover along the wf boundary...seen this way too many times in N.Kansas and S. Nebraska. Supercell starts moving n-ne and then hits boundary and then abbracadabra moves off slowly to the east as a mean tornadic supercell. Heck tomorrow has targets from the Nebraska Panhandle to SW Oklahoma. Just take your pick and be ready for some surprises too. Go get 'em Shane...

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I'll be targeting Scott City KS as an initial target. My main concern is outflow and stratus to the north from tonights convection. Dryslot and clearing should dig in from south to north during the day and the most ample surface heating should occur south of I-70.

From there, I'll head to where ever the first cumulus field shows itself. Tornadic supercells will be likely tomorrow - I've shot myself in the foot more than once trying to target the bullseye of the best parameters - if storms don't fire there or are crumvection type, all is lost. Go where initiation is likely IMO.

 

[Ben McMillan]

Fellow chaser Quintin Erdman and I will be departing the Des Moines area shortly and leaving for Wakeeney, Kansas. I decided to make the long hall all in one day, due to an overnight work commitment.

I really like the highway 283 corridor. We are hoping to catch the tail-end charlie south of Wakeeney or possibly Hays by sunset. This area is favored by the 4km WRF reflectivity model and the 24hr non-operational RUC model. It also should be the eastern edge of a forecasted dryline bulge, that should form later in the day.

I know the triple-point closer to the Nebraska border is going to be a popular place to be today as well, however the rapid north-northeasterly storm movement into a more stable environment was the deciding factor in our decision to target the dry line.

Good luck to everyone out today. I know these next two days are something a lot of people have been looking forward to and I hope all goes well!

 

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: HAYS, KS TIME OF DEPARTURE: 7:30 AM A classic severe weather set-up today as many parameters are coming together for a tornado day. PROS- Deep trough in the west will shunt a narrow upper jet across western KS and OK today. I really like the backed surface winds along I-70 this morning -which are needed when we have such meridional flow aloft. The dryline should mix eastward a bit stalling in W KS with a bulge along I-70. Plenty of surface moisture has advected northward overnight. So what could go wrong? CONS- I am not crazy about the early morning, elevated convection out west, and hope that calms down a bit. Also, storms will be racing north-northeastward today so I will have a long drive this morning in order to get in a position to stay ahead of them. I expect supercells to fire in the DDC area and move north-northeastward toward Hays later in the day. I'll update my forecast, if needed, while enroute. Good luck to all. TM

 

[BrandonWhittington]

The more that Im looking at everything, the more excited I'm getting about my target areas today. I have likedthe Eastern TX and OK Panhandles in regards to storms being more descrete in nature. Looking at surface obs, the winds are a little more veered down here in the Panhandles than I orignally thought they would be. Im guessing my target to be along the dryline, from around Pampa, up to Perryton and Back to Booker. Chasing in my home Town of Booker will be nice...

Also, does anyone agree that the dryline is developing further west than Models are depicting? Just from looking at everything, I think the dryline will establish itself in the central Panhandles, making a better chase day.

If the models verify, I would not be suprised to see at least one sig. Tornado somewhere in the TX Panhandle. CAPE Values Approaching 3000+ and the Leading edge of Mid 60s TDs in the Panhandles, could make for a Really good Chase Day..

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Hmm...I thought I posted here last night...weird.

At any rate, the gist of my thoughts:

I think tornadic supercells are likely to form from the KS/OK border all the way up to the triple point. The real question is: How do you chase a setup like this? In my opinion, it is wise to set up a little north of your target area. In all likelihood, there will be long-tracked tornadoes today, so it might be advantageous to position yourself a bit downstream until the storm matures (as has already been mentioned). My thought is to start out near the surface low and intercept the early initiators there today, watch them drop (hopefully), then move south and east toward other storms when my original target storm crosses into more stable air.

EDIT: Given the curved orientation of the dryline, an intercept strategy like the one above might be harder to implement. Still, I would hang back a little bit on a potentially big day like this one.

 

[Paul Knightley]

We're still in Hays and will likely remain here for part of the afternoon, watching obs/sat/radar. I'm wondering whether we might drift a little south and west of here towards Ness City, but until things become a tad clearer I see no reason to move. Good luck to all, and stay safe, especially this evening/after dark.

 

[Jim Bishop]

For the best 0-1km helicities, hodographs and veered midlevel flow I like the southern target (eastern TX panhandle/Western OK). I"m just not liking the north to north-northeast storm motions in Kansas. Plus CAPE will be higher further south in Western OK. Also storms will be more discrete and moving slower - more chaseable.

Of course since the CAP will likely break later in the afternoon/evening in OK a chaser may be able to start further norther and then drop south later after a monster, long track discrete tornadic supercell.

Wish I could be out there. Good luck to all. I look forward to seeing some amazing footage.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day,

Chased Colorado yesterday. Currently in Hays, Kansas since last night and it does not appear I will have to move very much today ;-)

Moisture return is incredible today, with dewpoints near 70's as far north as the KS / OK border and in the 60's throughout Kansas.

It's pretty obvious that the setup is ripe for a major severe weather event, CAPE expected to be 4,000 J/KG and Helicities near 500 (EHI will be like 12-13)! Nice ESE backed winds at 925 MB, exit region of 500 to 250 MB flow, and a dry-line / warm front.

The only negative I see now is the winds above 500 MB being S to SSW, but I only see that causing fast storm motions to the N.

Low level flow, highly backed to ESE, and even more interesting, SE at 850 MB then SSW at 700 MB above that, should make up for the meridonal flow aloft. Also, a triple point / supercell "anchoring" could yield a slower-moving and right-turning storm, and if that happens, that storm will go gang-busters!

There will be a LOT of folks out there today, so be careful, have fun, and drive carefully ;-)

 

[James Langford]

A friend and I are taking the southern target, since I can't get out of work here in Dallas until 2 pm. We'll be targetting West Central OK, hoping for discreet cells to bust the cap and move East. As others have mentioned, I also like the slower storm motion with the southern target. Stay safe out there folks.

James