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5/22/08 FCST: NE, KS, TX, MO, OK

Thursday is beginning to look like the best setup during this upcoming "4 days of setups weekend".

The 12z GFS & WRF both shift the main trough slightly further east. This now brings much needed upper support and stronger winds aloft to Western Kansas/Nebraska. So, not only is the likleyhood of the cap breaking greater, the storms that due fire will be ventilated by the strong 300-250mb winds, so we won't have to worry about low-level mesos being undercut by outflow just before producing a tornado.

Assuming the WRF is even close to verifiying, Western Kansas to Southwest Nebraska should light up with tornadic supercells, with the best target bing northwest Kansas. But lordy, back surface winds and backed 850mb winds at 30-40 knots underneath 500mb flow out of the southwest at 50 knots. Add 3000-4000 j/kg CAPE. Damn! What's even more intriguing is the fact that the GFS fires convectin along the dryline in Western Kansas.

Thursday has significant potential. I'm moving to Connecticut Wednesday to start a new job the following Monday. But I may have to take a detour through Kansas...
 
After looking over the 6z WRF, I'm becoming very encouraged - death cap CINH during most of the day, and it erodes by 0z Fri. Better chance of explosive discrete convection. I'm liking the tongue of moisture coming in ahead and northeast of the surface low where the best helicity would be - Goodland to Imperial perhaps. For once this year, 850s will be southeasterly/backed.

Pretty far out to pick a target, but I'd start on I-80 north of the Cheyenne ridge as I'd bet the orographic lifting factor will further aid initiation once the cap breaks down. Then, everything will move east northeasterly and further development would seem likely southeast of there towards a Sterling to Burlington line. Hopefully the convection can get into the 60s dews prior to dusk towards Goodland.

:edit: Good god, I can't wait to see the masses...everyone will be on their chasecations. This could be legendary. Forget moisture convergence - this will be chaser convergence!

:edit2: ouch - didn't look at the GFS cause I hate it, but it keeps the above mentioned areas strongly capped and doesn't even break out any precip - shows west central Kansas breaking out with precip, but the kinematics are non-existant there - 0 500mb flow.

Must remind self - do not look at anymore models until WED

:edit3: I agree Mikey - the GFS shows HUGE precip breaking out Fri. - tons more than Thurs. Almost looks like 3 different blobs of precip - like 3 monstor supercells.
 
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I still think Friday will be the bigger tornado day, at least numbers wise, but Thursday is looking pretty exceptional over NW Kansas. Any target along I70 right ahead of the dryline looks like a solid bet. Jim pretty much coverd the extremely favorable environment for tornadic supercells, so I will spare you that, although I would like to say it again because it sounds so nice after the crap we've been dealing with this season. >90 of turning in the 0-6km layer (almost 45 degrees in 0-1km along the warm front), very strong instability, and if we can get dewpoints in the mid to upper 60's, that is going to be a nasty combination for tornadoes with storms coming off the dryline in NW Kansas. I am a big fan of backing 850 winds, which is extremely refreshing to see considering the theme this season has been veering 850 winds.
My biggest concern about Thursday was the cap, which is outrageously strong at 18Z (with the NAM), but it erodes significantly by 00Z when precip breaks out. The more the models show precip breaking out the more confident I am getting though. There are some pretty insane composite indices showing up ahead of the dryline in NW Kansas with the NAM one of which is a 1km EHI of 9. That's up there. I would really like to see a hodograph for Hays if anybody knows where to get one beyond 72 hours. It has to be very impressive.
 
Here's my initial thinking, and this is a fairly limited analysis not yet factoring in anything beyond the basic upper air and sfc maps. I haven't even begun to add in thermodynamic fields, hodographs, etc...so keep in mind this is just an initial analysis. But thus far, an obvious target appears to be coming together on the 84h WRF 12z 19 May run. Target area is in part the best balance of the dryline acting as a lifting mechanism to overcome the cap; just eyeballing the 45deg directional shear. Let's hope this verifies :). Comments welcome...

ThursMay23.jpg
 
Quick question - could somebody please drop Missouri from the title of this thread and add Colorado, given that a significant amount of the action will be taking place there on Thursday? Thanks.:)

If I was a gambling man, I would be a large amount of money that Highway 36 between Idalia, CO and St. Francis, KS, Highway 34 between Wray, CO and Haigler, NE and Highway 6 between Holyoke, CO and Imperial, NE will be absolutely crawling with chasers after 4 p.m. on Thursday. I think we may very well see a potentially historic chaser convergence to go with the potentially significant outbreak!:eek:

For everybody's sake, with as many as are going to be out, I'm not going to beat a long dead horse, but I will say is that I sincerely hope people just use some common sense so somebody doesn't get needlessly injured or killed... and that's all I will and should have to say.:cool:

EDIT: My god, the GFS and NAM are actually in *gasps* agreement in breaking out precip across NW Kansas/SW Nebraska after 00z? I think I hear the hoofbeats of the horsemen of the apocalypse in the distance and see some winged pigs gliding across the sky!:D
 
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I really like what I see on both WRF and GFS runs, showing SIGNIFICANT precip occurring by 00Z Fri. for most of W NE and NW KS. I'm also highly encouraged by the zone of cooler 700 mb temps that runs roughly from Bridgeport, NE to Hill City, KS.

For me, North Platte will be the place to be by early Thurs. morning, and then just fine-tune things a little from that point.

The hotel rooms are really gonna be booked down there!


John
 
Man, it's still pretty far out timewise, but if the latest GFS run verifies, this one could be big.

I agree John, loving the corridor of cooling 700s. I like the strong cap through the entire day up to about 5 or 6 pm (6 o'clock magic). Warm front draped across northwest Kansas as well. The way it looks now, it'll be clear blue skies at 5 to 6 pm and 2 or 3 explosive discrete supercells by 7 pm. I do wish the 65 degree dewpoints were a bit further west.

Things will probably look like crap tomorrow though...
 
The 18Z NAM-WRF run is a gift! Any reservations I've had about Thursday are gone. By 00Z, great deep layer shear overspreads CAPE of 3,500 and more, capping just no longer appears to be an issue over most of Kansas, and upper level support looks great. Model soundings are impressive. Right now, I'd set my eyes on Russel County.
 
some of you that have been watching the models closer this year i have a question for you. the 12z gfs and the 12z nam/wrf have a large geographical difference from west to east in where they prog the dryline as far as western kansas goes. which model do you think is most likely to verrify the dryline's placement?? based on the performance of the models so far this year.
 
Thanks for the link Bob, but the one I am really wanting to see is the NAM. That GFS hodograph is still supportive of tornadic supercells though, and it's even too far east for the strong mid and upper level winds. Aside from it being short in the upper half, it looks great. Closer to the dryline that shouldn't be much of an issue, even with the GFS solution. The NAM on the other hand is going to be an incredible hodograph. I am really looking forward to seeing it on tonights run.
 
I agree tornadoes for everybody Mike! lol I too just glanced at the 18z run of the NAM and oh boy does it look nice! If this comes even close to verifying we are in good business. Looks like near of just south of McCook, Nebraska values are through the roof. EHI of 11, 0-1 SRH 630, 0-3 SRH 735, boundary layer-6km shear mid 80's and CAPE of near 4,000 J/kg just across the border into NW KS with virtually no CAP in place. Of course these are only numbers, but it is encouraging. I too am looking forward to the 00z run of the NAM to do some forecasting soundings which should be amazing. As things now Hill City sounds like a good place to start with a probable shift west and possibly north. Hmm now that I think about it May 22nd of last year was the Hill City event. Strange how things work out I guess. I guess the big thing I like is the NAM bringing in good 500mb winds to SW Nebraska and western Kansas. Before the models wanted to put them right at the Colorado/Kansas border with not much southwesterly component to them, but I am glad that has changed.
 
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