5/12/05 FCST Central Plains

Ok everyone, this is my first forecast thread....Being fairly new to the board (aside from my few years of haunting this forum) I am hoping I cover all the right bases.

Looks like the 84 hour 12z ETA showing nice 998mb low pressure system over north central Ks as well as backed 850 mb winds with nice sw flow aloft for This comming Thursday. Moisture and instabliity looks decent with at least temps in the 80s and 60 degree dews for the eastern half of Ks.

I am optimistic! :wink:
 
Wow, Eta realy downgrades severe wx potential for most of the central plains with the exception of the southern west texas panhandle. Cape is very weak along with the absence of a decent low pressure system. Spc is not very impressed either. I suppose High based Lp supercells could be had out near lubbuck, but that is very far from me...
GFS still progs a decent low in the OK panhandle
 
A brief look at the 0Z Eta tonight looks very interesting for tomorrow in eastern TX panhandle/western OK. By 0Z Friday, the area is in the right entrance region of the mid-to-upper level jet, and on the nose of the 850 mb LLJ. 500 mb winds are SW at 50-60 kts over slightly backed surface winds. Dewpoints are progged in the mid-to-upper 60s with CAPE 2000-3000 J/kg. I'm chasing with Howie Bluestein's crew, currently overnighting in Garden City, where we just had a hectic evening of scanning potentially tornadic supercells that developed out of nowhere right about sunset, after we had thought the day was a bust.

Dan
 
Looks to be a another good chase day with good chase terrain. Upper level support looks better. Screaming 500mb winds, 50-55knts. Moisture looks really good, mid to upper 60's Td's. Sfc winds don't look to be very backed, although with 850mb out of SSE and 700mb out of SSW, will give quite a bit of low level shear. I am overnighting in Woodward, definately a good starting place for tomorrow. :D
 
Ruc showing good dryline setup near witchita or just west of it. Spc seems to place that area in the bullseye for now. Ruc showing good LI and moisture convergance up north near the warm front. A more descreate setup looks to be in order farther south in Ks,Ok,Tx. Pending new forecasts, my target looks to be maybee just west of wichita.......
 
Sitting in Colby KS right now after getting thoroughly skunked yesterday on a PDS PoS bustola. Absolutely disgusted. Congrats to Roger Hill who found the best tornado of the day just south of Park, NE.

Last night went to bed assuming our gusty, cold, northerly winds were some form of outflow from the crapola storms to our north. WRONG!
Woke up this morning to find our cold front in Amarillo.

RUC tries to BACK winds by 18Z down there that are currently northerly. It'll be interesting to see if this even transpires, or if it is still yet another jaunt into the sick psyche of the models of 2005.

KR
 
Chase target for today, May 12

Target:
40 miles north of Topeka, KS (5 mi south of Fairview).

Timing:
Storm initiation 3 PM CDT.

Storm type:
Full spectrum of severe weather, including possible F0 and F1 tornadoes.

Discussion:
An outflow boundary from an MCS now pushing EWRD through NRN MO and IA will serve as a focus for renewed convection later this afternoon. WV imagery and RUC data show upper-level wave now entering SRN/SWRN KS. The effects of this disturbance will reach the target area by mid-afternoon. Ample instability, shear, and curving hodographs in the low-levels should result in supercell storms. Additionally, LCL and LFC levels between 800m and 1000m AGL will increase chances for tornadoes.

- bill
 
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