3/12/06 NOW: KS/MO

[Matthew Havin]

From SGF:

Funnel cloud on the southern cell before it crossed into MO.

SPOTTER OBSERVED FUNNEL CLOUD 6 MILES W OF FORT SCOTT (where: 6 W FORT SCOTT) (source: TRAINED SPOTTER)

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I also advise no one try to core punch that storm to get around the lakes go South report of 4.5 inch hail in Linn CO Kansasand radar returns have actually became stornger since that time

 

[Bill Tabor]

Originally posted by Dan Robinson
If I was on that storm I'd be making plans soon to jump down to I-44. That would require leaving the storm for a while but it seems like the only realistic way to keep up with it with the road network/terrain it is moving into.

Yep, gonna be a tough chase now as they cross into MO.

 

[Alex Lamers]

Well I do have a question, why aren't things developing south along the dry line, and why haven't there been any tornado reports yet? I thought LCLs were fine. Low level shear is off the charts...whats goin a-rye?

 

[Dan Robinson]

Edit, I-44 is out of the question. I didn't notice how much of a northerly component the storm motions had now. If you're on that storm now there's no way to keep up with it.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Best play right now is to stick to I-70 and watch both cells go by.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers
Well I do have a question, why aren't things developing south along the dry line, and why haven't there been any tornado reports yet? I thought LCLs were fine. Low level shear is off the charts...whats goin a-rye?

Seems there is not enough convergence along the dryline for the southern target. Given the UA support is to the north, the south part of the TA was going to need a lot of low level support. As far as tornadoes...who knows...could be the speed of the storms and the environments the storms are in...could be that the surface layer in the TA is more stable than we can think/model/observe.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Originally posted by Dan Robinson
Edit, I-44 is out of the question. I didn't notice how much of a northerly component the storm motions had now. If you're on that storm now there's no way to keep up with it.

Shoot up 13 to Clinton ahead of the storm the speed limit is 70 on 13 and I doubt there gonna pull you over :wink: that is an option if you hurry

 

[chad lawson]

3-12-06

just talked to mickey ptak he filmed a tornado some where in missouri cell phone was in and out so dont know all details so congrats to mickey and everyone else out there be safe and good luck

 

[Matthew E. Engelbrecht]

At 20Z, the warm front continued to move northward and now lies from Kansas City, MO-just N of St. Louis, MO. The dryline intersects the warm front just W of Lawrence, KS and extends SW just W of Bartlesville, OK-Henryetta, OK-Ardmore, OK. S of the warm front and E of the dryline, dew points are in the mid-60s and SBCAPE is on the order of 2.5 KJ/Kg. The cap has eroded south of the warm front near Kansas City, and then again along the dryline in OK from near Ponca City south to the Red River.

Three or four discreet supercells continue in W MO from Kansas City, MO to E of Ft. Scott, KS. The greatest wind shear profiles lie north of a Ft. Scott, KS-St. Louis, MO line with 0-1 Km SRH exceeding 500 m^2/s^2 in the Kansas City, MO vicinity, so expect these long-track supercells to continue being prolific severe weather producers. The greatest threat area for today continues to be the area I outlined in my earlier discussion.

In OK, VIS imagery shows TCU continuing along/E of the dryline and WV imagery shows what appears to be a disturbance rotating around the broad western US trough into far E NM/W TX. It may be another hour or two before the influence of this disturbance allows thunderstorm development along the dryline in OK. VAD and wind profilers indicate sufficient wind profiles for supercells and a few tornadoes across E/NE OK, but the kinematics do not appear as favorable in this area for long-lived/violent tornadoes. There could be an enhanced area of tornado potential for storms south of latitude with Ada, OK as surface winds seem to be locally more southerly in this area.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers
Well I do have a question, why aren't things developing south along the dry line, and why haven't there been any tornado reports yet? I thought LCLs were fine. Low level shear is off the charts...whats goin a-rye?

Also, FWD just released a statement saying that the cap remains quite strong per a special 1pm sounding.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Currently sitting in Independence, KS, awaiting initiation (thanks to Microtel). The low-level clouds have cleared out, and it has that 'capped' look. We are certainly hoping that sustained convergence can develop and give us some convective lovin'. The Neodesha profiler stills looks juicy.

 

[Alex Lamers]

OK, I'm noticing some things.

(1) Theres some strange supercells in N IL that have tops up over 20000 feet and one has a Tornado Warning on it...seemingly in a non-instability environment. Lots of convective development over Ern 1/2 of IA and N IL...radar is really filling in.

(2) Those sups in MO finally produce a tornado per the posted above! I thought this would be crazy if nothing touched down.

(3) More towering cu going up in Eastern Kansas...uh oh.

(4) Some cu growth in NC AR...that could be interesting...maybe we'll see things start to develop further south for once.

Anyone have any thoughts on how this will evolve into the evening?

 

[Andrew Stoller]

The storm coming into Marshal Missouri looks WICKED!!! Very broad area of circulation with it. I have a lot of family in Marshal that I'm worried about.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers
Well I do have a question, why aren't things developing south along the dry line, and why haven't there been any tornado reports yet? I thought LCLs were fine. Low level shear is off the charts...whats goin a-rye?

Alex, I suspect we are still a bit capped further S of the ongoing convection. Temps @ 700mb warmer across S MO and AR. However, instability is continuing to build, and surface low is still out in W Central KS, we dry line still very sharply defined over SE KS; looking at surface obs airmass seems to be recovering nicely even behind areas where earlier convection traversed. Cap appears eventually breakable, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a later round initiate in extreme SE KS / SW MO / NE OK and then proceed to rake the Ozarks later.