At 20Z, the warm front continued to move northward and now lies from Kansas City, MO-just N of St. Louis, MO. The dryline intersects the warm front just W of Lawrence, KS and extends SW just W of Bartlesville, OK-Henryetta, OK-Ardmore, OK. S of the warm front and E of the dryline, dew points are in the mid-60s and SBCAPE is on the order of 2.5 KJ/Kg. The cap has eroded south of the warm front near Kansas City, and then again along the dryline in OK from near Ponca City south to the Red River.
Three or four discreet supercells continue in W MO from Kansas City, MO to E of Ft. Scott, KS. The greatest wind shear profiles lie north of a Ft. Scott, KS-St. Louis, MO line with 0-1 Km SRH exceeding 500 m^2/s^2 in the Kansas City, MO vicinity, so expect these long-track supercells to continue being prolific severe weather producers. The greatest threat area for today continues to be the area I outlined in my earlier discussion.
In OK, VIS imagery shows TCU continuing along/E of the dryline and WV imagery shows what appears to be a disturbance rotating around the broad western US trough into far E NM/W TX. It may be another hour or two before the influence of this disturbance allows thunderstorm development along the dryline in OK. VAD and wind profilers indicate sufficient wind profiles for supercells and a few tornadoes across E/NE OK, but the kinematics do not appear as favorable in this area for long-lived/violent tornadoes. There could be an enhanced area of tornado potential for storms south of latitude with Ada, OK as surface winds seem to be locally more southerly in this area.
