3/12/06 NOW: KS/MO

[Matthew E. Engelbrecht]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers
(1) Theres some strange supercells in N IL that have tops up over 20000 feet and one has a Tornado Warning on it...seemingly in a non-instability environment.

There has been much written about supercells in low-instability/high shear environments, and vice-versa. Don't be surprised to see more of this north of the warm front with extreme shear in place (the SC you are talking about is in about 500 m^2/s^2 0-3 Km SRH) when a sustained updraft is present. It wouldn't likely be anything like what is in central MO right now, but I would think that brief tornadoes/funnel clouds can't be ruled out up there.

 

[HAltschule]

Where Jeff Snyder is, there appears to be an area of subsidence behind and outflow boundary/trof that is moving East with the area of supercells. This stretches from MKC south through Joplin, MO. Satellite shows cumulus trying to pop in Eastern KS and Eastern OK but they are evaporating. That plus a strong cap puts more of question as to whether anything will be able to pop this afternoon. It is a tough call at this point but the dynamics remain incredible. I'm interested in seeing what happens on radar over the next hour or two.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Storm is beggining to strengthen in E KS it is in the general area of the earlier initiation but it could be a sign of the start of the dryline activity

 

[Lance Maxwell]

New MD out for all of ERN OK and portions of NE TX.

 

[HAltschule]

The pair of tornadic supercells in Central MO already look worse and more organized than yesterday's convection. Not only are there great tornado markers with them, but they are around 73 DBZ. Likely producing softball sized hail.

 

[George Tincher]

AT 400 PM CST...SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR WINDSOR JUNCTION ALONG THE BENTON AND PETTIS COUNTY LINE. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

Looks like that is either the same tornado reported 10 minutes prior to this report....and is still on the ground...or a new one had formed. Also, the 45 mph speed of movement sounds better than the 60 earlier.

 

[Mark Farnik]

I was just looking at the latest ICT (Wichita) visible satellite image and I don't believe I have ever seen the dryline so well defined this early in the season:
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/...a764727d2373f0a
It doesn't take but a second to figure out where the dryline lies. Right now it is aligned from southwest to northeast from Wichita Falls, TX to Manhattan, KS. Massive cu field is advecting northwards, as Alex noted, and a nice cell just started to explode about thirty miles west of Fort Scott, KS. Other towering cu in it's immediate vicinity are starting to show up on radar returns and I wouldn't be surpised to see these intensify into supercells within the next 30 to 45 minutes. At long last it looks like the dryline is firing up.

 

[Ann Money]

Mike Parker is in eastern Franklin County observing the new activity rapidly building to the north east. He is observing rotation in the clouds. It is miminal rotation and it is cell V8

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I think the earlier report was for the northern storm, and the last one at Windsor is for the southern storm. Both with confirmed tornadoes. Talk about flying eagle on those suckers!

 

[Chris Allington]

Southern most cell near Sedalia, MO right now has a very nicely organized and tight couplet with one crazy hook on its SW flank right now. I can't believe that we have storms firing again in E Central KS.

 

[mikegeukes]

CAP from 18Z and 21Z Soundings:

18Z
13.0 DVN
6.7 FWD
4.5 ILX
2.0 LMN
3.6 LZX
2.4 OUN
2.6 SGF
2.7 SHV
4.6 TOP

21Z
4.6 ILX
3.6 SGF

Mike

 

[Matthew K. Hartman]

Sounds like the reports coming out of the southern-most cell have all been from the same tornado... long-tracked, large tornado, apparently:

* AT 409 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF
GREEN RIDGE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SEDALIA. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF EXTENSIVE DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM
SOUTHERN PETTIS COUNTY. SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING A LARGE ONE HALF MILE
WIDE TORNADO ON THE GROUND!

 

[Mark Farnik]

Sedalia, MO looks like it's staring down the barrel of the gun right now. The intense couplet/hook are racing towards Sedalia attm and should be passing directly over town in about five minutes. This cell has a confirmed tornado with it, and if it hits Sedalia it could be really ugly. :shock:

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Some good (re)initiation going on SW of KC, MO now along the dryline WF triplepoint. Three distinct cells making a go at it. The leftmost cell seems the most discreet on sat presentation. I'm wondering if the whole dryline is about to unzip itself into a string of supercells.

Lordy, I wish I could chase today.

 

[HAltschule]

Widespread destruction reported in Pettis County, MO. 1/2 mile wide tornado now moving toward Sedalia, MO. The NWS has issued a "Tornado Emergency" for that county, whatever that means.

EDIT: Softball sized hail also likley in Sedalia with the tornado as per hail algorithms.

EDIT #2: This doesn't look good. TVS Couplet with excellent G2G shear just moved directly over Sedalia, MO. This is the 1/2 mile wedge confirmed on the ground. I don't know the size of the city of Sedalia, MO but I am going to look.