2022 tornado statistics in context

adlyons

EF2
Joined
Feb 16, 2014
Messages
167
Location
Norman, Oklahoma
Still waiting for the rest of the 2022 tornado data to be released, but I've started working on verifying the seasonal forecast from this year. Heres a new plot I've been working on with the percentile ranks for tornado counts in different chase areas of the Plains. Also, if everyone is interested I or someone else can spin up a new 2023 thread in the next few days if we want to start looking ahead.

Screen Shot 2023-01-07 at 12.19.58 PM.png
Screen Shot 2023-01-07 at 12.24.35 PM.png
 
What unit is the y-axis in? If it is percentiles, why do they go above 100?
 
What unit is the y-axis in? If it is percentiles, why do they go above 100?
I would say:
y-axis = annual number of tornadoes
dashed black line = annual number of tornadoes (1980-2021 average)
red line = 25th percentile
yellow line = 50th percentile
green line = 75th percentile
 
What unit is the y-axis in? If it is percentiles, why do they go above 100?
Hey Jeff yeah I flubbed the description, my bad. Piere is correct. The y axis is the number or tornado reports in the area for the specified year. The color fill is the tercile based on the 1980-2021 distribution. The dash line is the 1980-2021 average.
 
Adlyons,

just curious, what was the relationship between stationary, mobile, professional vs. generic crowd sourced reporting. could you, if you wanted to, highlight/seperate the storm chaser reports from the more generic twitter "viewing it from my porch" reports? just curious as there may be some interesting ways to view the data, how many from twitter vs. say radios/CB/HAM etc. to NWS , private , or * other reporting.
 
Jason,

I'm not 100% sure, but I don't think I'm being unreasonable in inferring that the numbers that Adlyons is going by in the chart are the official SPC counts. To my knowledge, there is no available breakdown in *method* of reporting (ham, public safety, Twitter, etc.). As Jeff mentioned, technically almost all reports are crowdsourced, as few if any reports come from degreed mets in the field during the course of their duties. On top of that, many tornadoes get reported by multiple methods (example: Tornado A2 is called in on ham, but also reported by LE/Fire, and yet another report comes in from Twitter). While some LSRs do note the method by which it was reported if it's a single report, it does not break down if several reports came in on the same storm. And there are many days where the overall number comes down because they're able to ascertain during the surveys that x number of reports actually involved the same tornado.

As far as mobile vs stationary, I suspect it would be significantly more difficult to break that down even over trying to get a rough estimate on method of reporting. Unlike the official SPC report, those breakdowns would be at best, educated guesses, and possibly nothing more than spitballing (or even pertinent in the grand scheme of things).
 
Most tornadoes in the US would be considered crowdsourced, as they are reported by non-NOAA meteorologists.
OK. It's way more easy to report a tornado nowadays than, say, 30 or 40 years ago but, according to the two plots (above), the number of tornadoes is not rising... Are data adjusted?
 
I apologize for starting a thread hijacking here, but it's time for us to return back to the topic of the thread. If one wishes, PM me and I'll move all of these recent posts to a new thread discussing the separate issue.

NOTE: original post above, but no longer relevant; left for reference to those who haven't seen it in the other thread.
 
Jason,

I'm not 100% sure, but I don't think I'm being unreasonable in inferring that the numbers that Adlyons is going by in the chart are the official SPC counts. To my knowledge, there is no available breakdown in *method* of reporting (ham, public safety, Twitter, etc.). As Jeff mentioned, technically almost all reports are crowdsourced, as few if any reports come from degreed mets in the field during the course of their duties. On top of that, many tornadoes get reported by multiple methods (example: Tornado A2 is called in on ham, but also reported by LE/Fire, and yet another report comes in from Twitter). While some LSRs do note the method by which it was reported if it's a single report, it does not break down if several reports came in on the same storm. And there are many days where the overall number comes down because they're able to ascertain during the surveys that x number of reports actually involved the same tornado.

As far as mobile vs stationary, I suspect it would be significantly more difficult to break that down even over trying to get a rough estimate on method of reporting. Unlike the official SPC report, those breakdowns would be at best, educated guesses, and possibly nothing more than spitballing (or even pertinent in the grand scheme of things).

Great reply,

thanks for adding insight to it. I had in my mind the conception that, by virtue of the metadata or geo-location data, that maybe the SPC might segregate that data into "type of report" columns as opposed to just a report itself. I think when you're asking statisticians to do the work, I assume it's a lot easier to not factor in report type, and just focus on the report itself.

I am curious though and maybe you can fill me in. In terms of total reports, say 1 tornado has 50 observers simultaneously sending separate reports, so thats 50 reports for 1 tornado x how many additional reports are made as time continues and the storm path continues, over say 30min. so those same 50 make an addition 5 reports over 30 min. so now we are up to 300 reports for 1 tornado. Does that skew the annual data at all in some way? or does the SPC just say, reports are reports that's it.
 
Great reply,

thanks for adding insight to it. I had in my mind the conception that, by virtue of the metadata or geo-location data, that maybe the SPC might segregate that data into "type of report" columns as opposed to just a report itself. I think when you're asking statisticians to do the work, I assume it's a lot easier to not factor in report type, and just focus on the report itself.

I am curious though and maybe you can fill me in. In terms of total reports, say 1 tornado has 50 observers simultaneously sending separate reports, so thats 50 reports for 1 tornado x how many additional reports are made as time continues and the storm path continues, over say 30min. so those same 50 make an addition 5 reports over 30 min. so now we are up to 300 reports for 1 tornado. Does that skew the annual data at all in some way? or does the SPC just say, reports are reports that's it.

I will preface this by saying that I am not, nor have I ever, been employed by NWS or any non-military government agency (12 years enlisted Army is the extent of my time working for the government), and I'm also not a degreed meteorologist or statistician. So I'm going off of what I believe to be an educated guess as to how this works, but have reason to believe that I am in fact correct.

So, when tornado reports come in, I believe they are logged as they come in (this could also vary by office) by type of hazard (hail, wind, tor, flood, etc). While some may make a comment RE means of reporting, many do not. That's why, when the SPC has their "preliminary" reports at the end of a given day, the numbers almost always go down over the course of the next few days. Those are often referred to as "unfiltered" reports as well, because there's been no consolidation of duplicate reports of the same event. Once it's determined that, for example, 50 reports are in reference to tornado A2 (just giving a storm and tornado designator for the sake of discussion), those reports are all consolidated into one tornado "report" because it was the same tornado. This number is what goes in the numbers that I believe @adlyons is drawing from. I've noticed in the past, notations of "multiple spotters reported a tornado at this location" in the comment section, but then in the geographical data, it gives the starting time and ending time based on a number of factors. Also gives starting and ending location, which is based on the survey. All that to say that, those 50 reports all count as one tornado report, as do the 250 additional reports over the remainder of the tornado's life in your example Jason. So as far as overall tornado statistics for a year, once it's determined to be a single tornado, that should not skew the overall numbers for a year.

To the point that @Pierre Ducray made, I'm sure there are some small tornadoes that get caught now that weren't caught years ago. But, for the most part, especially after 1970, I don't think it's a significant enough number that have not been reported and/or have not been surveyed to seriously skew the statistics. Like with the rest of this, I could be mistaken, but I don't believe I am.
 
yeah that makes sense to me. The total number of reports are not the same as the total annual numbers of tornadoes, that is surely obvious. I just found it interesting in how they break it down. Thanks for the reply!
 
To the point that @Pierre Ducray made, I'm sure there are some small tornadoes that get caught now that weren't caught years ago. But, for the most part, especially after 1970, I don't think it's a significant enough number that have not been reported and/or have not been surveyed to seriously skew the statistics. Like with the rest of this, I could be mistaken, but I don't believe I am.
According to SPC (Tornado FAQ #Tornado Climatology and Data):
Tornado reports have increased, especially around the installation of the NEXRAD Doppler radar system in the mid 1990s. . . . The increase in tornado numbers is almost entirely in weak (EF0-EF1) events that are being reported far more often today due to a combination of better detection, greater media coverage, aggressive warning verification efforts, storm spotting, storm chasing, more developmental sprawl (damage targets), more people, and better documentation with cameras (including cell phones) than ever. . . . To compare tornado counts before Doppler radars, we have to either adjust historical trends statistically to account for the unreported weak tornadoes of before, or look only at strong to violent (EF2-EF5) tornadoes, whose records are much better documented and more stable. When we do that, very little overall change has occurred since the 1950s. . . .
 
interesting points about there being little change in EF2 or greater intensity reporting and such a large change in EF0 to EF2, but that does make sense. Thanks Pierre.
 
Adlyons,

just curious, what was the relationship between stationary, mobile, professional vs. generic crowd sourced reporting. could you, if you wanted to, highlight/seperate the storm chaser reports from the more generic twitter "viewing it from my porch" reports? just curious as there may be some interesting ways to view the data, how many from twitter vs. say radios/CB/HAM etc. to NWS , private , or * other reporting.

Jason there is some discrimination between reporting sources included in LSRs but theres almost no standardization across the NWS. Individual offices will often put trained spotter or storm chaser but those terms can be almost interchangeable to some people. Heres a paper by Evan Bently looking at some performance metrics from recent years and the LSRs with them. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/bentley/torwarns.pdf
 
According to SPC (Tornado FAQ #Tornado Climatology and Data):
Tornado reports have increased, especially around the installation of the NEXRAD Doppler radar system in the mid 1990s. . . . The increase in tornado numbers is almost entirely in weak (EF0-EF1) events that are being reported far more often today due to a combination of better detection, greater media coverage, aggressive warning verification efforts, storm spotting, storm chasing, more developmental sprawl (damage targets), more people, and better documentation with cameras (including cell phones) than ever. . . . To compare tornado counts before Doppler radars, we have to either adjust historical trends statistically to account for the unreported weak tornadoes of before, or look only at strong to violent (EF2-EF5) tornadoes, whose records are much better documented and more stable. When we do that, very little overall change has occurred since the 1950s. . . .

Great Summary Pierre. Yes, there has been an uptrend in tornado reports with the advent of doppler radar, population growth, and different reporting practices. The largest change is in weak tornadoes which were previously underreported and interestingly enough that increase isn't uniform over the whole US. The NCEI report database is problematic the farther back in time we go we can chat about that If youd like as it is a very well-known problem here. The data on the graphs I posted are not adjusted for significant trends. I did try to keep any trends minimized by selecting the time period and geographic areas over the most stable portions of the archive. This isnt meant to be rigorously scientific by any means. This was just an interesting side project to look at multiple years and gauge activity levels quickly. I have a formal journal article in the works detailing some better methods and data to estimate tornado occurrence. Here's a pre-print using some of the data. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/lyons/tormodes.pdf.
 
Jason,

I'm not 100% sure, but I don't think I'm being unreasonable in inferring that the numbers that Adlyons is going by in the chart are the official SPC counts. To my knowledge, there is no available breakdown in *method* of reporting (ham, public safety, Twitter, etc.). As Jeff mentioned, technically almost all reports are crowdsourced, as few if any reports come from degreed mets in the field during the course of their duties. On top of that, many tornadoes get reported by multiple methods (example: Tornado A2 is called in on ham, but also reported by LE/Fire, and yet another report comes in from Twitter). While some LSRs do note the method by which it was reported if it's a single report, it does not break down if several reports came in on the same storm. And there are many days where the overall number comes down because they're able to ascertain during the surveys that x number of reports actually involved the same tornado.

As far as mobile vs stationary, I suspect it would be significantly more difficult to break that down even over trying to get a rough estimate on method of reporting. Unlike the official SPC report, those breakdowns would be at best, educated guesses, and possibly nothing more than spitballing (or even pertinent in the grand scheme of things).

Drew you were correct. This data is the official counts from SPC but also certified in NOAA NCEI Storm Data.
 
The largest change is in weak tornadoes which were previously underreported and interestingly enough that increase isn't uniform over the whole US. The NCEI report database is problematic the farther back in time we go we can chat about that If youd like as it is a very well-known problem here.
1. Could there be a correlation between that non-uniform increase and population density?... For example the Plains v the Southeastern region...

2. Anyway it seems that there's another bias as well: Supercell tornadoes are much stronger and wider than damage-based ratings indicate.

And in this 2021 PNAS paper, this (not so) amazing sentence: 'It is no exaggeration to state that, until now, statistics concerning even the most basic characteristics of tornadoes, including intensity and size, could not be quantified with confidence.'

3. About your pre-print (I like it!) 'detailing some better methods and data to estimate tornado occurence', it looks like a sort of new contribution to 'RIP Tornado Alley'?!
 
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